Subjective Probability, Gambling and Intelligence


IT is well known that subjective ideas of probability differ from predictions made using statistical laws. This has been shown in temporal predictions by Jarvik1, Cohen and Hansel2 and others. It has also been shown by me3 to be the case for predictions about spatial ordering.

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  1. 1

    Jarvik, M. E., Amer. Psychol. (abstract), 1, 453 (1946).

  2. 2

    Cohen, J., and Hansel, C. E. M., Brit. J. Psychol., 46, 178 (1955).

  3. 3

    Dale, H. C. A., M.R.C. App. Psychol. Res. Unit Report No. 280.

  4. 4

    Edwards, W., Amer. J. Psychol., 66, 349 (1953).

  5. 5

    Whitfield, J. W., Biometrika, 34, 292 (1947).

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DALE, H. Subjective Probability, Gambling and Intelligence. Nature 181, 363–364 (1958).

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