Abstract
THE application of mathematics to group phenomena such as those of the kinetic theory of gases and statistical mechanics has long been accepted by physicists. The extension of such methods to biology, economics, and psychology is also widely accepted. Dr. L. F. Richardson, who is well known for his work in physics and meteorology, but who also holds a degree in psychology, makes the daring attempt to deal mathematically with foreign politics, particularly with the growth of armaments and the motives which produce this growth. The author's method is to take a verbal argument of a leading statesman and replace it by differential equations. Thus, Sir Edward Grey said: “The increase of armaments that is intended in each nation to produce . . . a sense of security, does not produce these effects. On the contrary, it produces a consciousness of the strength of other nations and a sense of fear.” This statement is replaced by a pair of differential equations, the meaning of which is certainly not exactly the same as that of the original statement. The differential equations really assert that for two nations, the rate of increase of expenditure on armaments by either is directly proportional to the total expenditure on armaments by the other. This variation of Grey's words is adopted because it is easy to deal with mathematically. However, it is immediately corrected by adding other terms, with a negative sign, to represent the restraining influence due to the burden of expense and fatigue, an influence not mentioned by Grey. The next step is to take account of an objection by Mr. Amery: “It was . . . in those insoluble conflicts of ambition and not in the armaments themselves that the cause of the War lay.” An additional positive constant term is added to each equation to represent the extra rate of growth of the armament burden due to national grievances or ambitions.
Generalized Foreign Politics
A Study in Group Psychology. By Dr. Lewis F. Richardson. (British Journal of Psychology, Monograph Supplements, 23.) Pp. viii+91. (Cambridge: At the University Press, 1939.) 8s. 6d. net.
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PIAGGIO, H. Generalized Foreign Politics. Nature 144, 692 (1939). https://doi.org/10.1038/144692a0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/144692a0