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Frequency Interpretations in Probability

Abstract

IF he were consistent, de Moivre would not have accepted 5/12 as the probability in Dr. Jeffrey's problem. (Two boxes, one containing 1 white and 2 black balls, the other 1 white and 1 black. Choose a box; then draw a ball; what is the probability of drawing white ? NATURE, Feb. 11.) For, according to his definition, the statement that the probability is 5/12 must mean that there are 12n, different possible cases, of which 5n are favourable, n being an integer. That simply is not true.

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CAMPBELL, N. Frequency Interpretations in Probability. Nature 143, 601–602 (1939). https://doi.org/10.1038/143601c0

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