Popular Long-Range Weather Forecasts

Abstract

SINCE last April, forecasts of the weather for fifty days ahead have been appearing in the Daily Mail. The forecasts, which are prepared by Lord Dunboyne, have excited a considerable amount of interest. The question of long-range forecasts has been engaging the attention of meteorologists for some time, and they would welcome any progress in this direction, even if in the first instance the forecasts were purely empirical. Lord Dunboyne has not published any account of the principles he uses, and it is not possible therefore to study the methods of the forecasts, but only the results obtained. The forecasts are given in the form of a diagram, and it is stated in the explanation that the higher the curve rises above a datum line the greater the probability of rain, and the lower the curve falls the greater the probability of dry weather. When the curve rises sufficiently far above the datum line, and rainy weather is indicated, the area within the curve is blackened, and similarly the lower parts of the diagram are shaded to indicate that dry weather is forecast.' In this way the periods when wet or dry weather is expected are shown at a glance.