Featured
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| Open AccessRegional uniqueness of tree species composition and response to forest loss and climate change
This study maps global tree composition in forests and assesses the impacts of historical forest cover loss and climate change. The results highlight the need for preserving the remaining large forest biomes, while regenerating degraded forests in a way that provides resilience against climate change.
- Nina van Tiel
- , Fabian Fopp
- & Loïc Pellissier
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Article
| Open AccessBiodiversity increases resistance of grasslands against plant invasions under multiple environmental changes
Species-rich communities tend to be less vulnerable to species invasions, but whether this is maintained under environmental stress is unclear. This meta-analysis shows that the positive effect of biodiversity on resistance to invasion in grassland plant communities is reduced by drought but increased by warming and multiple global change factors.
- Cai Cheng
- , Zekang Liu
- & Jihua Wu
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| Open AccessBiodiversity loss reduces global terrestrial carbon storage
Loss of vegetation carbon from biodiversity loss could rival emissions from other sources such as land-use change. This creates a feedback where climate change increases biodiversity loss, leading to greater emissions and more climate change.
- Sarah R. Weiskopf
- , Forest Isbell
- & Simon Ferrier
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Article
| Open AccessTemperature alters the predator-prey size relationships and size-selectivity of Southern Ocean fish
Using prey size measurements from ten Southern Ocean lanternfish species sampled across >10° of latitude, this study shows that higher temperatures were associated with smaller fish and an overall decrease in the size of fish relative to their prey. Ocean warming may therefore alter the diversity and size structuring of trophic interactions, reducing the stability of marine ecosystems.
- Patrick Eskuche-Keith
- , Simeon L. Hill
- & Eoin J. O’Gorman
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| Open AccessA global meta-analysis on the effects of organic and inorganic fertilization on grasslands and croplands
Inorganic fertilization reduces plant biodiversity. Here, the authors conduct a global meta-analysis on the use of organic and inorganic fertilizer in croplands and grasslands, showing that while both fertilizers increase plant biomass, only organic fertilizer increases biodiversity.
- Ting-Shuai Shi
- , Scott L. Collins
- & Jian-Sheng Ye
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Article
| Open AccessResponses of marine trophic levels to the combined effects of ocean acidification and warming
Marine organisms are increasingly exposed to both ocean acidification and warming. Here, the authors report a meta-analysis of fully factorial experiments with both acidification and warming treatments, finding that synergistic interactions are less common than expected.
- Nan Hu
- , Paul E. Bourdeau
- & Johan Hollander
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Article
| Open AccessSpeed of environmental change frames relative ecological risk in climate change and climate intervention scenarios
Hueholt et al. find that considering how the rate of temperature change contributes to ecosystem risk helps inform future hypothetical design of climate intervention scenarios
- Daniel M. Hueholt
- , Elizabeth A. Barnes
- & Ariel L. Morrison
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Article
| Open AccessHidden impacts of ocean warming and acidification on biological responses of marine animals revealed through meta-analysis
Climate change effects on animals are typically measured as decreases or increases in performance, compared to controls. Because both directions can have cascading effects at the ecosystem level, this study conducts a meta-analysis testing for deviations in biological responses using absolute rather than relative changes, showing that impacts on marine animals might have been largely underestimated.
- Katharina Alter
- , Juliette Jacquemont
- & Paolo Domenici
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Article
| Open AccessTreeline displacement may affect lake dissolved organic matter processing at high latitudes and altitudes
Shifts in the treeline may induce changes in organic matter composition of lakes at high altitude and latitude. Here, the authors experimentally unravel effects of soil-derived DOM for lake carbon biogeochemistry and bacterial carbon use efficiency.
- Núria Catalán
- , Carina Rofner
- & Hannes Peter
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Article
| Open AccessElevation-dependent pattern of net CO2 uptake across China
The authors employed 203 eddy covariance towers to reveal a negative and varying elevation dependent pattern of CO2 uptake, under changes in Earth’s climate and human activities.
- Da Wei
- , Jing Tao
- & Xiaodan Wang
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Article
| Open AccessSystematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change
Global warming targets are considered inadequate to protect coral reefs, but this prognosis is based on models with similar approaches. This systematic review of studies that project coral responses to climate change found that divergent modelling methodologies had discrepancies in coral reef outcomes, and that those used for climate change syntheses may project more severe consequences than other methods.
- Shannon G. Klein
- , Cassandra Roch
- & Carlos M. Duarte
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Article
| Open AccessWarming underpins community turnover in temperate freshwater and terrestrial communities
Predicting species responses to climate change may be complicated by the influence of other factors. Here, the authors report that warming is linked to terrestrial and freshwater community shifts towards warm-adapted species overall, but body size, thermal niche breadth, species richness and baseline temperature modulate the trends.
- Imran Khaliq
- , Christian Rixen
- & Anita Narwani
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Article
| Open AccessMarine protected areas promote stability of reef fish communities under climate warming
Protected areas are meant to defend species from direct exploitation and habitat loss, but they might also reduce climate change impacts. Here, the authors show that marine protected areas mitigate the impacts of marine heatwaves on reef fish communities.
- Lisandro Benedetti-Cecchi
- , Amanda E. Bates
- & Eneko Aspillaga
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Article
| Open AccessTransition from positive to negative indirect CO2 effects on the vegetation carbon uptake
It is unclear how indirect CO2 effect – via associated climate change – on vegetation carbon uptake changes globally. Here, the authors show that such initial positive effect has declined recently, shifting to negative in the early 21st century.
- Zefeng Chen
- , Weiguang Wang
- & Alessandro Cescatti
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Article
| Open AccessExperimental warming accelerates positive soil priming in a temperate grassland ecosystem
Soil priming could release large amounts of soil C into the atmosphere. Here the authors show that experimental warming boosts soil priming and CO2 emissions in grasslands potentially due to microbial changes. Model accuracy could be improved by incorporating these mechanisms.
- Xuanyu Tao
- , Zhifeng Yang
- & Jizhong Zhou
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Comment
| Open AccessOpening the door to multi-year marine habitat forecasts
Combining ocean predictions with physiological understanding yields the ability to forecast habitat multiple years into the future for a wide variety of marine organisms. However, several challenges remain before we see the regular production and use of marine habitat forecasts.
- Mark R. Payne
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Article
| Open AccessDrought may exacerbate dryland soil inorganic carbon loss under warming climate conditions
Drought is shown to enhance the temperature sensitivity of soil inorganic carbon dissolution but to weaken that of soil organic carbon decomposition, indicating that drought may exacerbate dryland soil carbon loss from inorganic carbon under warming.
- Jinquan Li
- , Junmin Pei
- & Ming Nie
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Article
| Open AccessThermal responses of dissolved organic matter under global change
The response of organic molecules to climate change is linked to warming, nutrient loading, and greenhouse gas emissions, according to an indicator developed to quantify the aggregated thermal response of individual organic molecules.
- Ang Hu
- , Kyoung-Soon Jang
- & Jianjun Wang
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Article
| Open AccessSteeper size spectra with decreasing phytoplankton biomass indicate strong trophic amplification and future fish declines
Using a global synthesis of size spectra data from pelagic food webs, this study finds that size structure is not driven by temperature as often suggested, but by the nutrient status of the system. This means that modest phytoplankton declines projected for key fishing grounds at mid-latitudes will amplify into substantial reductions in the supportable biomass of fish.
- Angus Atkinson
- , Axel G. Rossberg
- & Constantin Frangoulis
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Article
| Open AccessClimate-driven invasion and incipient warnings of kelp ecosystem collapse
Climate change is redistributing species poleward, threatening widespread socio-ecological disruption as key tipping-points are exceeded. This study examines space-time dynamics of kelp ecosystem collapse over a 15-year period along the warming coastline of eastern Tasmania and shows that an early-warning signal of kelp ecosystem collapse is recognisable well-in-advance.
- Scott D. Ling
- & John P. Keane
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Article
| Open AccessMicrobially mediated mechanisms underlie soil carbon accrual by conservation agriculture under decade-long warming
Agricultural soil C dynamics under climate change are difficult to predict. Here, the authors report that experimental warming increases soil organic C stocks in conservation agriculture but not in conventional agriculture, which appears driven by soil microbial responses to no tillage and C inputs from the crops.
- Jing Tian
- , Jennifer A. J. Dungait
- & Jizhong Zhou
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Article
| Open AccessMore than 17,000 tree species are at risk from rapid global change
Tree species may be vulnerable to multiple global change factors. Here, the authors find that more than 17 thousand tree species are exposed to increasing anthropogenic threats, including many species classified as data-deficient in the IUCN Red List.
- Coline C. F. Boonman
- , Josep M. Serra-Diaz
- & Jens-Christian Svenning
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Article
| Open AccessThe blue carbon of southern southwest Atlantic salt marshes and their biotic and abiotic drivers
This study provides a comprehensive characterization of blue C for South American Atlantic salt marshes and reveals that environmental and biological variables are important for an understanding of blue C storage leading to lower global estimates.
- Paulina Martinetto
- , Juan Alberti
- & Raymond Ward
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Article
| Open AccessEcological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes
Forecasting ecology can support proactive decision-making in the face of uncertain environmental conditions. Using case studies on whale entanglement and sea turtle bycatch, this study showcases the capacity for existing management tools to transition to a forecast configuration and provide skilful forecasts up to 12 months in advance.
- Stephanie Brodie
- , Mercedes Pozo Buil
- & Michael G. Jacox
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Article
| Open AccessLocal adaptation and future climate vulnerability in a wild rodent
A species’ response to anthropogenic climate change may depend on its adaptations to past climate changes. Here, the authors use whole-genome resequencing and genetic-environment association to identify genes important for local adaptation and project adaptation under future climate scenarios across bank vole populations in Britain.
- Silvia Marková
- , Hayley C. Lanier
- & Petr Kotlík
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Article
| Open AccessExperimental mining plumes and ocean warming trigger stress in a deep pelagic jellyfish
The deep ocean is increasingly subjected to human-induced environmental change, but little is known about species-specific responses to stressors, including those from deep sea mining. This study shows that elevated temperatures and simulated sediment plumes cause physiological stress in a cosmopolitan deep-sea jellyfish, confirming the detrimental impact of seabed mining.
- Vanessa I. Stenvers
- , Helena Hauss
- & Henk-Jan T. Hoving
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Article
| Open AccessInconsistent shifts in warming and temperature variability are linked to reduced avian fitness
Climate change effects on wildlife may occur through both gradual changes and extreme events. Here, the authors quantify the impact of cold snaps and heatwaves on reproductive success in 24 common bird species in North America over the last few decades.
- Conor C. Taff
- & J. Ryan. Shipley
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Article
| Open AccessShort-term acidification promotes diverse iron acquisition and conservation mechanisms in upwelling-associated phytoplankton
Coastal upwelling regions are among the most productive marine ecosystems but may be threatened by amplified ocean acidification. Here the authors show from community to molecular levels that phytoplankton in an upwelling region respond to short-term acidification exposure with iron uptake pathways and strategies that reduce cellular iron demand.
- Robert H. Lampe
- , Tyler H. Coale
- & Andrew E. Allen
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Article
| Open AccessFading regulation of diurnal temperature ranges on drought-induced growth loss for drought-tolerant tree species
Drought-induced growth loss can be alleviated by reduced diurnal temperature ranges. Here, the authors show that the alleviation of reduced diurnal temperature ranges on drought-induced growth loss has faded for drought-resistant tree species over the last decades.
- Xianliang Zhang
- , Tim Rademacher
- & Rubén D. Manzanedo
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Article
| Open AccessIncreasing atmospheric dryness reduces boreal forest tree growth
How trees respond to increasing atmospheric dryness has important implications for forest growth. Here, the authors use a network of tree-ring records to quantify the multidecadal impact of vapour pressure deficit trends on boreal forests in Canada.
- Ariane Mirabel
- , Martin P. Girardin
- & Peter B. Reich
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Article
| Open AccessLinking climate warming and land conversion to species’ range changes across Great Britain
Climate change and land use change may have independent or interactive effects on species’ distributions. Here, the authors show that changes in bird, lepidopteran and plant ranges across Great Britain are often explained by individual or additive effects of land conversion and temperature change.
- Andrew J. Suggitt
- , Christopher J. Wheatley
- & Alistair G. Auffret
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Article
| Open AccessMicrobial growth under drought is confined to distinct taxa and modified by potential future climate conditions
Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of drought events, affecting soil functions driven by microorganisms. Here, Metze et al. develop a method to estimate microbial growth rates in dry soils, and provide insights into the response of active microbes to drought today and in potential future climate conditions (high temperatures and CO2 levels).
- Dennis Metze
- , Jörg Schnecker
- & Andreas Richter
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Article
| Open AccessComposition of cetacean communities worldwide shapes their contribution to ocean nutrient cycling
Cetaceans such as dolphins and whales contribute to the cycling of essential nutrients in the surface ocean through defecation. Using a bioenergetic modelling approach, this study shows that the contribution of different cetaceans is heterogeneous both in terms of quantity and in quality, as the nutrient cocktails they release reflect the physiology and ecology of each species.
- Lola Gilbert
- , Tiphaine Jeanniard-du-Dot
- & Jérôme Spitz
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Article
| Open AccessEmergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change
Marine heatwaves and mass bleaching mortality events threaten the persistence of coral communities on tropical reefs. This study demonstrates that the thermal tolerance of coral communities in Palau has likely increased since the late 1980s. Such ecological resilience could reduce future bleaching impacts if global carbon emissions are cut down.
- Liam Lachs
- , Simon D. Donner
- & James R. Guest
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Comment
| Open AccessExploring climate-induced sex-based differences in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems to mitigate biodiversity loss
The response of aquatic and terrestrial organisms to climate change can depend on biological sex. A key challenge is to unravel the interactive effects of sex and climate change at the individual and population levels and the cascading effects on communities. This new understanding is essential to improve climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.
- Elena Gissi
- , Londa Schiebinger
- & Fiorenza Micheli
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| Open AccessWidespread and complex drought effects on vegetation physiology inferred from space
Vegetation resilience to drought is underlain by plant physiological responses. Here, the authors combine remote sensing data, explainable machine learning and model simulations to map global vegetation responses to drought linked to physiological processes such as stomatal regulation and light use efficiency.
- Wantong Li
- , Javier Pacheco-Labrador
- & Rene Orth
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Article
| Open AccessBoreal conifers maintain carbon uptake with warming despite failure to track optimal temperatures
Acclimation of tree photosynthesis to warming may be affected by elevated CO2. Here, the authors show that mature boreal conifers may be able to maintain leaf-level C uptake under warming and elevated CO2 even if optimum temperature of photosynthesis does not track increased temperature.
- Mirindi Eric Dusenge
- , Jeffrey M. Warren
- & Danielle A. Way
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| Open AccessLocal colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability
Species’ range shifts projections are usually based on climate and land cover variables. Here, the authors use long-term records for bird species to show that species distribution models accounting for climate and land cover often fail to predict observed range shifts.
- Christine Howard
- , Emma-Liina Marjakangas
- & Stephen G. Willis
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Article
| Open AccessPlant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome
Functional trait data could guide predictions of species responses to environmental change. Here, the authors show that winner and loser shrub species in the warming tundra biome overlap in trait space and may therefore be difficult to predict based on commonly measured traits.
- Mariana García Criado
- , Isla H. Myers-Smith
- & Anna-Maria Virkkala
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Article
| Open AccessOxygen availability and body mass modulate ectotherm responses to ocean warming
This study presents an absolute metabolic index that quantifies how ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and organismal mass interact to constrain the oxygen budget an organism can use to fuel aerobic metabolism. The index is calibrated with physiological measurements from purple sea urchin and red abalone and the authors test if the index can delimit the distribution of these two species.
- Murray I. Duncan
- , Fiorenza Micheli
- & Erik A. Sperling
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Article
| Open AccessNorthern expansion is not compensating for southern declines in North American boreal forests
Boreal forests are expanding at high latitudes yet declining at their southern boundaries. Here, the authors show that such trends are not symmetrical in North America, where poleward expansion of boreal forests did not offset southern declines often linked to wildfires and logging.
- Ronny Rotbarth
- , Egbert H. Van Nes
- & Milena Holmgren
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Article
| Open AccessReassessment of growth-climate relations indicates the potential for decline across Eurasian boreal larch forests
Tree growth in boreal forests is generally predicted to increase under warming. Here, the authors demonstrate a method to analyze physiologically informed temperature series of tree-ring data, finding potentially overlooked growth-temperature responses and projecting increasing risks of warming to boreal larch forests.
- Wenqing Li
- , Rubén D. Manzanedo
- & Neil Pederson
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Article
| Open AccessTrajectories of freshwater microbial genomics and greenhouse gas saturation upon glacial retreat
Diverse microbial trajectories in carbon and nitrogen cycle processes represent a positive feedback loop of deglaciation on climate warming.
- Jing Wei
- , Laurent Fontaine
- & Alexander Eiler
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Article
| Open AccessThe potential for coral reef restoration to mitigate coastal flooding as sea levels rise
The capacity of coral reefs to keep pace with sea-level rise is central to their ability to continue to provide shoreline protection to vulnerable coastal communities. Here, the study shows that whereas restoration has the potential to minimize climate-change impacts, doing nothing will amplify them.
- Lauren T. Toth
- , Curt D. Storlazzi
- & Richard B. Aronson
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Article
| Open AccessStomatal responses of terrestrial plants to global change
Stomatal conductance is an important plant ecophysiological trait and a common parameter in earth system models. This global meta-analysis shows how CO2, warming and other global change factors affect stomatal conductance individually and interactively.
- Xingyun Liang
- , Defu Wang
- & David S. Ellsworth
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Article
| Open AccessTemperate functional niche availability not resident-invader competition shapes tropicalisation in reef fishes
This study examines how the tropicalisation of shallow reefs changes functional niches for fishes in Japan and Australia. They discover that functional niches in tropical-temperate transitional communities are asynchronously invaded by tropical species, mediated more by habitat availability than competition with resident temperate species.
- Mark G. R. Miller
- , James D. Reimer
- & Maria Beger
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Article
| Open AccessExperimental warming causes mismatches in alpine plant-microbe-fauna phenology
Phenological shifts driven by climate change are well-studied in plants and aboveground animals, but scarcely in belowground biota. Here, the authors show that soil warming causes phenological mismatches between plants, soil microbes and soil microarthropods in an alpine meadow.
- Rui Yin
- , Wenkuan Qin
- & Biao Zhu
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Article
| Open AccessHigh economic costs of reduced carbon sinks and declining biome stability in Central American forests
Tropical forest ecosystems supply ecosystem services of global importance. Here, the authors show that climate change reduces climate regulation and habitat services in Central American forests and results in high economic costs.
- Lukas Baumbach
- , Thomas Hickler
- & Marc Hanewinkel
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Article
| Open AccessNo carbon storage in growth-limited trees in a semi-arid woodland
Drought can have complex effects on plants due to different responses of photosynthesis, growth and carbon storage. Here, the authors show that tree growth does not always stop before photosynthesis and non-structural carbohydrate may not accumulate.
- R. Alexander Thompson
- , Henry D. Adams
- & Nate G. McDowell