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| Open AccessPost-COVID conditions following COVID-19 vaccination: a retrospective matched cohort study of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection
The impact of COVID-19 vaccination on post-COVID conditions is not well understood. Here, the authors use electronic health record data from a network of eight integrated healthcare systems in the United States to compare rates of post-COVID conditions in those with and without vaccination.
- Debbie E. Malden
- , In-Lu Amy Liu
- & Sara Y. Tartof
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Perspective
| Open AccessPlacing engineering in the earthquake response and the survival chain
This Perspective provides insightful discussion in how engineers can aid human health and safety during earthquake disasters. From search and rescue, helping mobilize patients, and securing medical facilities and treatment engineering can work towards bettering earthquake response.
- Luis Ceferino
- , Yvonne Merino
- & Baturalp Ozturk
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Article
| Open AccessMedical history predicts phenome-wide disease onset and enables the rapid response to emerging health threats
Preventive interventions often require strategies to identify high-risk individuals. Here, the authors illustrate the potential utility of medical history in predicting the onset risk for thousands of diseases across clinical specialties including COVID-19.
- Jakob Steinfeldt
- , Benjamin Wild
- & Roland Eils
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Article
| Open AccessDevelopment of a long noncoding RNA-based machine learning model to predict COVID-19 in-hospital mortality
Identifying biomarkers associated with risk of severe COVID-19 disease could inform clinical management. Here, the authors identify a long noncoding RNA associated with severe disease using data from three European countries, and validate their finding in data from Canada.
- Yvan Devaux
- , Lu Zhang
- & Hüseyin Firat
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Article
| Open AccessSpatial disparities in the mortality burden of the covid-19 pandemic across 569 European regions (2020-2021)
Excess mortality can be used as an indicator of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, the authors estimate excess mortality in 569 European regions in 25 countries for 2020 and 2021 and describe how impacts changed over time.
- Florian Bonnet
- , Pavel Grigoriev
- & Carlo-Giovanni Camarda
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Article
| Open AccessGenomic insights unveil the plasmid transfer mechanism and epidemiology of hypervirulent Klebsiella pneumoniae in Vietnam
Hypervirulent Klebsiella pneumoniae (hvKp) is a significant cause of severe community-acquired infection, primarily in Asia. Here, the authors characterise the genetic profile, phylogenetic structure, and plasmid features of hvKp in Vietnam.
- Quynh Nguyen
- , Nguyen Yen Thi Phuong
- & Duy Thanh Pham
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Article
| Open AccessImpacts of human mobility on the citywide transmission dynamics of 18 respiratory viruses in pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic years
Population mobility is associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission but its impacts on other respiratory viruses are not well understood. Here, the authors investigate associations between mobile phone-derived mobility metrics and the dynamics of 18 respiratory viruses in Seattle, Washington from 2018 to 2022.
- Amanda C. Perofsky
- , Chelsea L. Hansen
- & Cécile Viboud
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Article
| Open AccessImportance of social inequalities to contact patterns, vaccine uptake, and epidemic dynamics
Contact patterns influence the spread of infectious diseases, but mathematical models of epidemics typically only account for age differences in contacts. Here, the authors investigate the importance of other sociodemographic characteristics in shaping contact patterns and vaccine uptake using survey data from Hungary.
- Adriana Manna
- , Júlia Koltai
- & Márton Karsai
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Article
| Open AccessSevere outcomes of malaria in children under time-varying exposure
Severe pediatric malaria remains a concern in many countries. Here, the authors use an individual-based modeling approach to evaluate the relationship between malaria prevalence and incidence of malaria pediatric hospitalizations, and show how unsteady transmission patterns affect hospitalization rates.
- Pablo M. De Salazar
- , Alice Kamau
- & Melissa A. Penny
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Article
| Open AccessA burden of proof study on alcohol consumption and ischemic heart disease
Alcohol use is commonplace and ischemic heart disease (IHD) the leading cause of death globally, yet their relationship is unclear. Here we show that study type determines whether research finds alcohol reduces IHD risk or is unrelated, arguing for new approaches to settle this critical debate.
- Sinclair Carr
- , Dana Bryazka
- & Emmanuela Gakidou
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Article
| Open AccessRelationship between HLA genetic variations, COVID-19 vaccine antibody response, and risk of breakthrough outcomes
Human leucocyte antigens are important in the adaptive immune response. Here, the authors use data from the UK Biobank linked to electronic health records to investigate the association between genetic variation in HLA alleles and antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and breakthrough COVID-19 outcomes.
- Junqing Xie
- , Beatriz Mothe
- & Daniel Prieto Alhambra
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Article
| Open AccessSputum culture reversion in longer treatments with bedaquiline, delamanid, and repurposed drugs for drug-resistant tuberculosis
In patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis who receive treatment with new and repurposed drugs, indicators of advanced disease and delayed conversion were associated with an increased risk of reversion. These factors may be targets for close monitoring.
- Sooyeon Kho
- , Kwonjune J. Seung
- & Molly Franke
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Article
| Open AccessTemporal shifts in 24 notifiable infectious diseases in China before and during the COVID-19 pandemic
Public health and social measures for COVID-19 also impacted the incidence of other infectious diseases. In this study, the authors characterise the impacts of these measures on 24 notifiable infectious diseases in China until December 2023.
- Kangguo Li
- , Jia Rui
- & Tianmu Chen
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Article
| Open AccessHigh SARS-CoV-2 incidence and asymptomatic fraction during Delta and Omicron BA.1 waves in The Gambia
Many low- and middle-income countries, including The Gambia, had low COVID-19 vaccination coverage during the emergence of the Delta and Omicron variants. Here, the authors perform a prospective household cohort study in the Gambia to investigate the dynamics of SARS-Cov-2 infection in this setting.
- Sheikh Jarju
- , Rhys D. Wenlock
- & Thushan I. de Silva
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Article
| Open AccessOzone as an environmental driver of influenza
Temperature and absolute humidity are associated with influenza activity, and recent data from Hong Kong have suggested ozone as an additional environmental driver. Here, the authors investigate the relationship between ozone and influenza transmission using surveillance data from the USA and find evidence for an inhibitory effect.
- Fang Guo
- , Pei Zhang
- & Linwei Tian
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Article
| Open AccessGenetic association of inflammatory marker GlycA with lung function and respiratory diseases
Here, the authors observed significant genetic correlation of GlycA with lung function, asthma and COPD and identified ten shared loci revealing potential shared biological mechanisms involving ubiquitination and Wnt/β-catenin signaling.
- Yanjun Guo
- , Quanhong Liu
- & Weihong Chen
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Article
| Open AccessCirculating fatty acids and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and chronic liver disease mortality in the UK Biobank
Different fatty acids have been associated to liver diseases. Here, the authors show that plasma levels of different circulating fatty acids are either negatively or positively associated with the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and chronic liver disease mortality in the UK Biobank cohort.
- Zhening Liu
- , Hangkai Huang
- & Chengfu Xu
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Article
| Open AccessUsing genome and transcriptome data from African-ancestry female participants to identify putative breast cancer susceptibility genes
Here, the authors integrate genomic and transcriptomic data obtained from African-ancestry female participants and identify six genes associated with breast cancer risk which provides biological insights into this common cancer in an underrepresented population.
- Jie Ping
- , Guochong Jia
- & Wei Zheng
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Article
| Open AccessModelling the transmission dynamics of H9N2 avian influenza viruses in a live bird market
H9N2 avian influenza is a virus with zoonotic potential that is common in poultry in live bird markets in Asia. In this study, the authors use mathematical modelling to characterise transmission of H9N2 in live bird markets in Bangladesh and assess the effectiveness of potential interventions to reduce its circulation.
- Francesco Pinotti
- , Lisa Kohnle
- & Guillaume Fournié
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Article
| Open AccessIndividualized prevention of proton pump inhibitor related adverse events by risk stratification
The safety profile of proton pump inhibitor (PPI) use remains controversial. Here, the authors show that PPI use is associated with an increased risk of 15 leading global diseases, with absolute risks increasing with baseline risks, highlighting the need for personalized PPI use strategies.
- Bin Xia
- , Qiangsheng He
- & Jinqiu Yuan
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Article
| Open AccessReservoir displacement by an invasive rodent reduces Lassa virus zoonotic spillover risk
Mastomys natalensis is a rodent species native to West Africa that is the primary reservoir host for Lassa virus. Here, the authors investigate whether the invasive rodent Rattus rattus decreases M. natalensis density and could therefore indirectly decrease zoonotic transmission of Lassa virus to humans.
- Evan A. Eskew
- , Brian H. Bird
- & Scott L. Nuismer
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Article
| Open AccessFine-mapping analysis including over 254,000 East Asian and European descendants identifies 136 putative colorectal cancer susceptibility genes
Here, the authors perform large trans-ancestry fine-mapping analyses identifying large numbers of association signals and putative target genes for colorectal cancer risk, advancing our understanding of the genetic and biological basis of this cancer.
- Zhishan Chen
- , Xingyi Guo
- & Wei Zheng
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Article
| Open AccessThe airborne transmission of viruses causes tight transmission bottlenecks
Genomic analyses have indicated that a small number of virus particles usually found new infections. Here, the authors use a mathematical model to show that this small transmission bottleneck is a result of the physical processes of airborne virus emission, diffusion, and inhalation.
- Patrick Sinclair
- , Lei Zhao
- & Christopher J. R. Illingworth
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Article
| Open AccessTravel surveillance uncovers dengue virus dynamics and introductions in the Caribbean
Dengue is a major public health concern in the Americas, and the Caribbean can be a source for reintroduction and spread. Here, the authors use travel surveillance data and genomic epidemiology to reconstruct Dengue epidemic dynamics in the Caribbean from 2009-2022.
- Emma Taylor-Salmon
- , Verity Hill
- & Nathan D. Grubaugh
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Article
| Open AccessAmbient carbon dioxide concentration correlates with SARS-CoV-2 aerostability and infection risk
Carbon dioxide concentration has previously been used as a proxy for overall ventilation efficiency to indirectly estimate the risk of indoor SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Here, authors investigate whether the concentration of carbon dioxide also has a direct mechanistic role in improving transmission efficiency.
- Allen Haddrell
- , Henry Oswin
- & Jonathan P. Reid
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Article
| Open AccessOverlapping Streptococcus pyogenes and Streptococcus dysgalactiae subspecies equisimilis household transmission and mobile genetic element exchange
Streptococcus dysgalactiae subsp. equisimilis is closely related to Streptococcus pyogenes and colonises the same sites in humans. This study examines cross-species transmission interactions and genetic exchange in a high disease burden setting.
- Ouli Xie
- , Cameron Zachreson
- & Steven Y. C. Tong
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Article
| Open AccessLong-term monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and variants in Ethiopia provides prediction for immunity and cross-immunity
Detailed data on SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in Africa remain limited. Here, the authors use longitudinal serology and SARS-CoV-2 sequencing data from Ethiopia between August 2020 and July 2022 to characterise circulating variants, identify infection pathways, and explore cross-immunity properties.
- Simon Merkt
- , Solomon Ali
- & Andreas Wieser
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Article
| Open AccessEstimating the effects of temperature on transmission of the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum
Malaria transmission is affected by temperature but this relationship is not well characterised. Here, the authors experimentally determine the effect of temperature on parasite development in the mosquito and model how it impacts malaria transmission in Kenya under current and future climate scenarios.
- Eunho Suh
- , Isaac J. Stopard
- & Matthew B. Thomas
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Article
| Open AccessDeviations in RSV epidemiological patterns and population structures in the United States following the COVID-19 pandemic
Non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 also impacted the transmission of other viruses including respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Here the authors describe the changing epidemiology, clinical severity, and genetic diversity of RSV in Chicago, Illinois, from July 2010 to April 2023.
- Estefany Rios-Guzman
- , Lacy M. Simons
- & Judd F. Hultquist
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Article
| Open AccessPerinatal outcomes after admission with COVID-19 in pregnancy: a UK national cohort study
The impacts of maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection on newborns are not well understood. Here, the authors perform a national cohort study using data on births in the UK from March 2020—March 2022 and find that moderate to severe maternal COVID-19 was associated with adverse perinatal outcomes.
- Hilde Marie Engjom
- , Rema Ramakrishnan
- & Marian Knight
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Article
| Open AccessEpidemiological, clinical, and genomic landscape of coccidioidomycosis in northeastern Brazil
Coccidioidomycosis, a WHO-listed mycosis, is neglected in South America. Analysis of 292 cases in Brazil, often tied to armadillo hunting, unveils unique disease patterns, environmental factors and pathogen genetics causing the disease.
- Kelsen Dantas Eulálio
- , Daniel R. Kollath
- & Marcus de Melo Teixeira
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Article
| Open AccessThe recent rapid expansion of multidrug resistant Ural lineage Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Moldova
Chitwood et al. report on the rapid expansion of a Ural-lineage multidrug resistant strain of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Moldova. This strain has an estimated reproduction number more than two times greater than otherwise similar drug susceptible strains.
- Melanie H. Chitwood
- , Caroline Colijn
- & Benjamin Sobkowiak
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Article
| Open AccessOrigin and dispersal history of Hepatitis B virus in Eastern Eurasia
Hepatitis B virus is an ancient human pathogen that dates back more than 10,000 years. Here, the authors investigate the evolutionary history of the virus in Eastern Eurasia by sequencing 34 genomes dating from approximately 400–5,000 years ago and comparing them with other contemporary sequences.
- Bing Sun
- , Aida Andrades Valtueña
- & Yinqiu Cui
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Article
| Open AccessConcomitant medication, comorbidity and survival in patients with breast cancer
Preliminary epidemiological evidence suggests that some non-cancer medications may affect breast cancer risk, recurrence, and survival. In this study, the authors utilized a nationwide database of breast cancer patients to estimate the association between frequently used drugs taken prior to diagnosis and breast cancer prognosis. And they identified 16 drugs associated with breast cancer outcomes.
- Elise Dumas
- , Beatriz Grandal Rejo
- & Anne-Sophie Hamy
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Article
| Open AccessMaternal hybrid immunity and risk of infant COVID-19 hospitalizations: national case-control study in Israel
Maternal anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies can provide protection against severe COVID-19 in infants, but the relative protection conferred by maternal infection, vaccination, and hybrid immunity is unknown. Here, the authors use data from Israel and show that infants born to mothers with hybrid immunity had lowest rates of COVID-19 hospitalisation.
- Joshua Guedalia
- , Michal Lipschuetz
- & Ofer Beharier
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Article
| Open AccessIncident allergic diseases in post-COVID-19 condition: multinational cohort studies from South Korea, Japan and the UK
SARS-CoV-2 infection has been linked to various persistent or new-onset health consequences, including disruption of the immune system. Here, the authors investigate the risk of new-onset allergic diseases following SARS-CoV-2 infection using data from South Korea, Japan, and the UK.
- Jiyeon Oh
- , Myeongcheol Lee
- & Dong Keon Yon
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Perspective
| Open AccessEcological countermeasures to prevent pathogen spillover and subsequent pandemics
In this Perspective, the authors discuss the importance of preventing zoonotic spillover to prevent pandemics. They highlight mechanisms by which environmental changes can enable spillover, identify ecological interventions for spillover prevention and suggest policy frameworks through which interventions can be implemented.
- Raina K. Plowright
- , Aliyu N. Ahmed
- & Annika T. H. Keeley
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Article
| Open AccessPredictive evolutionary modelling for influenza virus by site-based dynamics of mutations
Seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness depends on including virus strains in the vaccine that closely match those circulating in the upcoming season. In this study, the authors develop a computational model of influenza virus evolution to predict future circulating strains and therefore support vaccine strain selection.
- Jingzhi Lou
- , Weiwen Liang
- & Maggie Haitian Wang
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Article
| Open AccessElevated blood remnant cholesterol and triglycerides are causally related to the risks of cardiometabolic multimorbidity
Dysmetabolism of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins is considered a shared risk factor for cardiometabolic diseases, but their associations with cardiometabolic multimorbidity have not been fully understood. Here, the authors show that elevated levels of remnant cholesterol and triglycerides were observationally and genetically associated with a higher risk of cardiometabolic multimorbidity.
- Yimin Zhao
- , Zhenhuang Zhuang
- & Tao Huang
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Article
| Open AccessGenomic malaria surveillance of antenatal care users detects reduced transmission following elimination interventions in Mozambique
Routine sampling of pregnant women at first antenatal care (ANC) visits could be used for malaria surveillance. Here, the authors compare the genetic structure of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations between samples from first ANC users and children from the community in Mozambique, and show that it can inform about changes in transmission beyond epidemiological data.
- Nanna Brokhattingen
- , Glória Matambisso
- & Alfredo Mayor
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Article
| Open AccessUptake of COVID-19 vaccinations amongst 3,433,483 children and young people: meta-analysis of UK prospective cohorts
COVID-19 vaccination has been recommended for children and young people (aged 5–17) in the UK since 2021/2022. In this study, the authors use linked health and administrative data to estimate vaccine uptake in this age group and show that age and adult household vaccination status are associated with uptake.
- Sarah J. Aldridge
- , Utkarsh Agrawal
- & Rhiannon K. Owen
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Article
| Open AccessThe decline of the 2022 Italian mpox epidemic: Role of behavior changes and control strategies
Mpox cases in Italy rapidly declined following a peak in summer 2022. Here, the authors investigate potential reasons for the decline in cases using an individual-based model of a sexual contact network of men who have sex with men.
- Giorgio Guzzetta
- , Valentina Marziano
- & Stefano Merler
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Article
| Open AccessImpact of vaccination on the association of COVID-19 with cardiovascular diseases: An OpenSAFELY cohort study
SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with an increased risk of arterial and venous thrombotic events. Here, the authors investigate the degree to which this association is modified by virus variant and vaccination using electronic health record data for ~18 million adults in England.
- Genevieve I. Cezard
- , Rachel E. Denholm
- & Venexia Walker
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Article
| Open AccessUnderstanding the infection severity and epidemiological characteristics of mpox in the UK
Mpox cases without known travel links to endemic countries began to be detected in the UK in mid-2022. In this study, the authors characterise the severity of mpox cases in the UK and estimate the overall infection hospitalisation risk at ~4%.
- Thomas Ward
- , Christopher E. Overton
- & Martyn Fyles
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Article
| Open AccessDrivers and impact of the early silent invasion of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha
The SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant of concern emerged in the UK in late 2020 but spread internationally before it was detected. Here, the authors reconstruct the dynamics of dissemination of this variant out of the UK by combining extent of genomic sequencing, travel volume, and local epidemic dynamics in a Bayesian model.
- Benjamin Faucher
- , Chiara E. Sabbatini
- & Chiara Poletto
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Article
| Open AccessDeep learning model for personalized prediction of positive MRSA culture using time-series electronic health records
Identification of patients at high risk of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infection could improve treatment outcomes by optimising antimicrobial therapy. Here the authors develop a deep learning model that uses electronic health record data from the United States to predict MRSA culture positivity.
- Masayuki Nigo
- , Laila Rasmy
- & Degui Zhi
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Article
| Open AccessComparing frequency of booster vaccination to prevent severe COVID-19 by risk group in the United States
The optimal frequency of COVID-19 booster vaccination is unclear. Here, the authors use a microsimulation model to assess the impact of different vaccine schedules on severe disease and show that regular boosters have large benefits for older and immunocompromised individuals but less so for younger age groups.
- Hailey J. Park
- , Gregg S. Gonsalves
- & Nathan C. Lo
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Article
| Open AccessInequalities in healthcare use during the COVID-19 pandemic
An indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was a decline in healthcare utilisation for other conditions. Here, the authors quantify this decline in the Netherlands and show that impacts were greater for individuals with lower household income, females, older people, and those with a migrant background.
- Arun Frey
- , Andrea M. Tilstra
- & Mark D. Verhagen
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Article
| Open AccessDispersion patterns of SARS-CoV-2 variants Gamma, Lambda and Mu in Latin America and the Caribbean
Genomic surveillance has been important for tracking the evolution and spread of SARS-CoV-2. Here, the authors analyse ~300,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from two years of sequencing in the Latin America and Caribbean regions and describe the emergence and spread of different lineages over time.
- Tiago Gräf
- , Alexander A. Martinez
- & Juliana Almeida Leite