Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Commentary
  • Published:

Hydrocarbons and the evolution of human culture

Nature volume 426, pages 318–322 (2003)Cite this article

An Erratum to this article was published on 08 January 2004

Abstract

Most of the progress in human culture has required the exploitation of energy resources. About 100 years ago, the major source of energy shifted from recent solar to fossil hydrocarbons, including liquid and gaseous petroleum. Technology has generally led to a greater use of hydrocarbon fuels for most human activities, making civilization vulnerable to decreases in supply. At this time our knowledge is not sufficient for us to choose between the different estimates of, for example, resources of conventional oil.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Former oil fields in Southern Louisiana.
Figure 2: Oil tanker from an oil rig in the North Sea.
Figure 3: Deck of a North Sea oil well.
Figure 4

References

  1. Munasinghe, M. The sustainomics trans-disciplinary meta-framework for making development more sustainable: applications to energy issues. Int. J. Sustain. Dev. 5, 125–182 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Interlaboratory Working Group. Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future 〈http://www.ornl.gov/ORNL/Energy_Eff/CEF.htm〉 (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory LBNL-44029, Berkeley, California, 2000)

  3. Hall, C. A. S., Lindenberger, D., Kummel, R., Kroeger, T. & Eichhorn, W. The need to reintegrate the natural sciences with economics. BioScience 51, 663–673 (2001).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Tharakan, P. J., Kroeger, T. & Hall, C. A. S. Twenty-five years of industrial development: a study of resource use rates and macro-efficiency indicators for five Asian countries. Environ. Sci. Policy 4, 319–332 (2001).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Kaufmann, R. K. The mechanisms for autonomous increases in energy efficiency: a cointegration analysis of the US energy/GDP ratio. Energy J. (in the press).

  6. Smulders, S. & de Nooij, M. The impact of energy conservation on technology and economic growth. Resource Energy Econ. 25, 59–79 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Sadorsky, P. Oil price shocks and stock market activity. Energy Econ. 21, 449–469 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Tissot, B. P. & Welt, D. H. Petroleum Formation and Occurrence (Springer-Verlag, New York, 1978).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  9. Campbell, C. J. & Laherrère, J. H. The end of cheap oil. Sci. Am. 278, 78–83 (1998).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. United States Geological Survey (USGS) The World Petroleum Assessment 2000 〈http://www.usgs.gov〉 (2003).

  11. United States Geological Survey (USGS) United States Department of Long Term World Oil Supply 〈http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/presentations/2000/long_term_supply/index.htm〉 (2000).

  12. Hubbert, M. K. Energy Resources (Report to the Committee on Natural Resources) (National Academy of Sciences, Washington DC, 1962).

    Google Scholar 

  13. Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy. International Outlook 2003. Report No. DOE/EIA-0484(2003), Table 16 at 〈http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/oil.html〉 (2003).

  14. Lynch, M. C. Forecasting oil supply: theory and practice. Q. Rev. Econ. Finance 42, 373–389 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Kaufmann, R. K. & Cleveland, C. J. Oil Production in the lower 48 states: economic, geological and institutional determinants. Energy J. 22, 27–49 (2001).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Kaufmann, R. K. Oil production in the lower 48 states: Reconciling curve fitting and econometric models. Res. Energy 13, 111–127 (1991).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Hallock, J., Tharkan, P., Hall, C., Jefferson, M. & Wu, W. Forecasting the availability and diversity of geography oil supplies. Energy (in the press).

  18. Cleveland, C. J., Costanza, R., Hall, C. A. S. & Kaufmann, R. Energy and the United States economy: a biophysical perspective. Science 225, 890–897 (1984).

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  19. Tainter, J. The Collapse of Complex Systems (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1988).

    Google Scholar 

  20. Cooper, C. & Pope, H. Dry wells belie hope for big Caspian reserves. Wall Street J. 12 October (1998).

  21. Hakes. J. Long Term World Oil Supply: a Presentation Made to the American Association of Petroleum Geochemists, New Orleans, Louisiana 〈http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/presentations/2000/long_term_supply/index.htm〉 (2000).

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank S. Ulgiati, R. Kaufmann and C. Levitan for discussions, J. Laherrére for insights into the functioning of the oil industry and for directing us to the recent ASPO data.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departments of Environmental and Forest Biology and Graduate Program in Environmental Sciences, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, 13210, New York, (SUNY ESF), USA

    Charles Hall, Pradeep Tharakan & John Hallock

  2. Flathead Lake Biological Station, University of Montana, Polson, Montana, USA

    Charles Hall

  3. Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, Syracuse University, Syracuse, New York, USA

    Pradeep Tharakan

  4. Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Boston University, 675 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, 02215, Massachusetts, USA

    Cutler Cleveland

  5. Department of Geography at Boston University, 675 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, 02215, Massachusetts, USA

    Cutler Cleveland

  6. Global Energy & Environmental Consultants, The Old Stables, Felmersham, MK43 7HJ, Bedfordshire, UK

    Michael Jefferson

Authors
  1. Charles Hall
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Pradeep Tharakan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. John Hallock
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Cutler Cleveland
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Michael Jefferson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Charles Hall.

Supplementary information

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Hall, C., Tharakan, P., Hallock, J. et al. Hydrocarbons and the evolution of human culture. Nature 426, 318–322 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02130

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02130

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing