Socioeconomic scenarios

Socioeconomic scenarios are plausible representations of the future based on coherent, and internally consistent, assumptions about the evolution of key social and economic drivers. Examples of these drivers are economic growth, technological development and population. They are not intended to be predictive, but are designed to explore the implications of different futures.

Latest Research and Reviews

News and Comment

  • Comments and Opinion |

    Scenarios have supported assessments of the IPCC for decades. A new scenario ensemble and a suite of visualization and analysis tools is now made available alongside the IPCC 1.5 °C Special Report to improve transparency and re-use of scenario data across research communities.

    • Daniel Huppmann
    • , Joeri Rogelj
    • , Elmar Kriegler
    • , Volker Krey
    •  & Keywan Riahi
    Nature Climate Change 8, 1027-1030
  • Comments and Opinion |

    Climate change mitigation scenarios are finding a wider set of users, including companies and financial institutions. Increased collaboration between scenario producers and these new communities will be mutually beneficial, educating companies and investors on climate risks while grounding climate science in real-world needs.

    • Christopher Weber
    • , David L. McCollum
    • , Jae Edmonds
    • , Pedro Faria
    • , Alban Pyanet
    • , Joeri Rogelj
    • , Massimo Tavoni
    • , Jakob Thoma
    •  & Elmar Kriegler
  • News and Views |

    For integrated climate change research, the Scenario Matrix Architecture provides a tractable menu of possible emissions trajectories, socio-economic futures and policy environments. However, the future of decision support may lie in searchable databases.

    • Vanessa Schweizer
  • Comments and Opinion |

    Increasing demand for solution-oriented environmental assessments brings significant opportunities and challenges at the science–policy–society interface. Solution-oriented assessments should enable inclusive deliberative learning processes about policy alternatives and their practical consequences.

    • Martin Kowarsch
    • , Jason Jabbour
    • , Christian Flachsland
    • , Marcel T. J. Kok
    • , Robert Watson
    • , Peter M. Haas
    • , Jan C. Minx
    • , Joseph Alcamo
    • , Jennifer Garard
    • , Pauline Riousset
    • , László Pintér
    • , Cameron Langford
    • , Yulia Yamineva
    • , Christoph von Stechow
    • , Jessica O'Reilly
    •  & Ottmar Edenhofer