Natural hazards

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The permeability of a dome exerts a control on the outgassing efficiency of the underlying magma. The authors investigate the role of hydrothermal alteration on this process in the laboratory and use these data to model whether the overpressures generated are capable of promoting explosive behaviour.

    • Michael J. Heap
    • , Valentin R. Troll
    • , Alexandra R. L. Kushnir
    • , H. Albert Gilg
    • , Amy S. D. Collinson
    • , Frances M. Deegan
    • , Herlan Darmawan
    • , Nadhirah Seraphine
    • , Juergen Neuberg
    •  & Thomas R. Walter
  • Article
    | Open Access

    The role of solar and wind energy (SWE) in management of water-food-energy (WFE) nexus is largely neglected. Here the authors developed a trade-off frontier framework to quantify the water sustainability value of SWE and applied it in California, where they found that SWE penetration creates beneficial feedback for the WFE nexus by enhancing drought resilience and benefits groundwater sustainability over long run.

    • Xiaogang He
    • , Kairui Feng
    • , Xiaoyuan Li
    • , Amy B. Craft
    • , Yoshihide Wada
    • , Peter Burek
    • , Eric F. Wood
    •  & Justin Sheffield
  • Article
    | Open Access

    There still lacks a forecast system that inform end-users regarding the drought impacts, which will be however important for drought management. Here the authors assess the feasibility of forecasting drought impacts using machine-learning and confirm that models, which were built with sufficient amount of reported drought impacts in a certain sector, are able to forecast drought impacts a few months ahead.

    • Samuel J. Sutanto
    • , Melati van der Weert
    • , Niko Wanders
    • , Veit Blauhut
    •  & Henny A. J. Van Lanen
  • Article
    | Open Access

    On 22 December 2018, the western flank of Anak Krakatau collapsed into the sea of the Sunda Strait triggering a tsunami which killed approximately 430 people and displaced 33,000. Here, the authors show that Anak Krakatau exhibited an elevated state of activity several months prior to the collapse, including precursory thermal anomalies, an increase in the island’s surface area, and a gradual seaward motion of the southwestern flank.

    • Thomas R. Walter
    • , Mahmud Haghshenas Haghighi
    • , Felix M. Schneider
    • , Diego Coppola
    • , Mahdi Motagh
    • , Joachim Saul
    • , Andrey Babeyko
    • , Torsten Dahm
    • , Valentin R. Troll
    • , Frederik Tilmann
    • , Sebastian Heimann
    • , Sébastien Valade
    • , Rahmat Triyono
    • , Rokhis Khomarudin
    • , Nugraha Kartadinata
    • , Marco Laiolo
    • , Francesco Massimetti
    •  & Peter Gaebler
  • Article
    | Open Access

    “Reconstruction of precipitation variability from oxygen isotopes in the Mesoamerican and Caribbean region is made difficult by the occurrence of tropical cyclones. Here, the isotopic evolution of a tropical cyclone is studied in detail which helps disentangle the key processes governing rainfall isotope variability in the region.”

    • Ricardo Sánchez-Murillo
    • , Ana M. Durán-Quesada
    • , Germain Esquivel-Hernández
    • , Daniela Rojas-Cantillano
    • , Christian Birkel
    • , Kristen Welsh
    • , Minerva Sánchez-Llull
    • , Carlos M. Alonso-Hernández
    • , Doerthe Tetzlaff
    • , Chris Soulsby
    • , Jan Boll
    • , Naoyuki Kurita
    •  & Kim M. Cobb
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Forecasting aftershock earthquakes is a critical step in improving seismic hazard mitigation. The authors here combine Bayesian methods with extreme value theory to tackle this problem - and manage to estimate the maximum magnitude of an expected earthquake as well as the arrival times in a pre-defined window.

    • Robert Shcherbakov
    • , Jiancang Zhuang
    • , Gert Zöller
    •  & Yosihiko Ogata
  • Article
    | Open Access

    The Al-Idrissi Fault System in the Alboran Sea is a major tectonic structure in its initial stage. By using bathymetric and seismic reflection data, the authors unravel a 3D geometry for the AIFS, which corresponds to a crustal-scale boundary and provides a unique model of the inception and growth of a young plate boundary fault system.

    • Eulàlia Gràcia
    • , Ingo Grevemeyer
    • , Rafael Bartolomé
    • , Hector Perea
    • , Sara Martínez-Loriente
    • , Laura Gómez de la Peña
    • , Antonio Villaseñor
    • , Yann Klinger
    • , Claudio Lo Iacono
    • , Susana Diez
    • , Alcinoe Calahorrano
    • , Miquel Camafort
    • , Sergio Costa
    • , Elia d’Acremont
    • , Alain Rabaute
    •  & César R. Ranero
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Determining if a volcanic eruption will behave effusively or explosively is crucial for predicting the potential hazard type and for planning effective mitigation. Here, the authors present a universal, fluid dynamic induced, break-up criterion for low viscosity melts.

    • T. J. Jones
    • , C. D. Reynolds
    •  & S. C. Boothroyd
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Tropical cyclone-induced coastal flooding will increase under climate change. Here the authors estimate the effects of sea level rise and tropical cyclone climatology change on late–21st–century flood hazards along the US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts and find that the effect of tropical cyclone change could surpass the effect of sea level rise at some areas in the Gulf of Mexico.

    • Reza Marsooli
    • , Ning Lin
    • , Kerry Emanuel
    •  & Kairui Feng
  • Article
    | Open Access

    The state of the Main Marmara Fault (fault segment of the North Anatolian Fault) is widely discussed, towards whether it is creeping or locked. The authors here present seafloor geodetic measurements which indicate a complete locking of the fault in the central part of the Sea of Marmara. This provides significant information for the assessment of both seismic and potential tsunami hazard to Istanbul.

    • Dietrich Lange
    • , Heidrun Kopp
    • , Jean-Yves Royer
    • , Pierre Henry
    • , Ziyadin Çakir
    • , Florian Petersen
    • , Pierre Sakic
    • , Valerie Ballu
    • , Jörg Bialas
    • , Mehmet Sinan Özeren
    • , Semih Ergintav
    •  & Louis Géli
  • Article
    | Open Access

    The larger particulates from reactor Unit 1 of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant have received sparse attention compared to the Unit 2 particulate. Here the authors perform the higher-resolution and 3-dimentional analysis of several high-density micron-scale fragments, from within a larger Unit 1-derived representative ejecta particle.

    • Peter G. Martin
    • , Marion Louvel
    • , Silvia Cipiccia
    • , Christopher P. Jones
    • , Darren J. Batey
    • , Keith R. Hallam
    • , Ian A. X. Yang
    • , Yukihiko Satou
    • , Christoph Rau
    • , J. Fred W. Mosselmans
    • , David A. Richards
    •  & Thomas B. Scott
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Spatial distribution has been rarely studied in global disaster risk models. Here the authors address damaged networked infrastructure at the asset level for a wider range of hazards and reveal a global Expected Annual Damages ranging from $3.1 to 22 billion with a particular vulnerability of transport infrastructure in Small Island Developing States.

    • E. E. Koks
    • , J. Rozenberg
    • , C. Zorn
    • , M. Tariverdi
    • , M. Vousdoukas
    • , S. A. Fraser
    • , J. W. Hall
    •  & S. Hallegatte
  • Perspective
    | Open Access

    Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico in 2017 and resulted in a complete loss of activity of the Public Health Laboratories. Here, the authors discuss the approach taken and tools developed to re-establish activity in these laboratories using a quality management system and the lessons learned in this process.

    • Margaret C. Hardy
    • , Rita C. Stinnett
    • , Kristine J. Kines
    • , Danisha M. Rivera-Nazario
    • , David E. Lowe
    • , Alexandra M. Mercante
    • , Nathalie Gonzalez Jimenez
    • , Rosa I. Cuevas Ruiz
    • , Héctor I. Rivera Arbolay
    • , Rafael L. Gonzalez Peña
    • , Mayra Toro
    • , Alma A. Trujillo
    • , Claudia L. Pappas
    • , Anna C. Llewellyn
    • , Francisco Candal
    • , María Burgos Garay
    • , Gerardo A. Gomez
    • , Jeniffer Concepcion Acevedo
    • , Marisela Ansbro
    • , Hercules Moura
    • , Michael W. Shaw
    • , Atis Muehlenbachs
    • , Lovisa C. Romanoff
    • , Brittany J. Sunshine
    • , Dale A. Rose
    • , Anita Patel
    • , Craig N. Shapiro
    • , S. Carolina Luna-Pinto
    • , Satish K. Pillai
    •  & Eduardo O’Neill
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) are a major threat during explosive volcanic eruptions, hence the possibility to forecast them would be a vital improvement for risk mitigation. Here the authors present a 3D flow model to quantify the thermal patterns leading to volcanic ash plume collapse conditions.

    • Matteo Trolese
    • , Matteo Cerminara
    • , Tomaso Esposti Ongaro
    •  & Guido Giordano
  • Article
    | Open Access

    The spread of flood-induced failures in critical infrastructure systems is understudied. Here the authors apply the CaMa-Flood global river flood simulation model to estimate the flood-induced failures and their spread in China and the US and find that the number of flood-induced total failures is in-between that of random and localized damage given the same intensity.

    • Weiping Wang
    • , Saini Yang
    • , H. Eugene Stanley
    •  & Jianxi Gao
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Dynamics of peralkaline rhyolite eruptions remain elusive due to the lack of direct observations. Here the authors provide X-ray Computed Tomography, thermal modelling and field data of fluidal shaped pyroclasts and show that peralkaline rhyolite pumice cones are the product of moderate to intense eruptions.

    • Ben Clarke
    • , Eliza S. Calder
    • , Firawalin Dessalegn
    • , Karen Fontijn
    • , Joaquín A. Cortés
    • , Mark Naylor
    • , Ian Butler
    • , William Hutchison
    •  & Gezahegn Yirgu
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Flood risk modelling neglects the location of people and assets. Here the authors applied machine learning techniques and high-resolution population data to reinvestigate the impact of population distributions on flood exposure and showed that populations are generally represented as risk-averse and largely avoiding obvious flood zones.

    • Andrew Smith
    • , Paul D. Bates
    • , Oliver Wing
    • , Christopher Sampson
    • , Niall Quinn
    •  & Jeff Neal
  • Article
    | Open Access

    The effect of fluid viscosity on fault mechanics is mainly conjectured by theoretical models. Here, the authors present experimental data from rock friction experiments, showing both static and dynamic friction coefficients to decrease with viscosity and dynamic friction to depend on the Sommerfeld number.

    • C. Cornelio
    • , E. Spagnuolo
    • , G. Di Toro
    • , S. Nielsen
    •  & M. Violay
  • Article
    | Open Access

    The 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in New Zealand raised the discussion about how a complex fault system operates. Here the authors propose a dynamic rupture scenario that reproduces key characteristics of the event and show that the fault system works at low apparent friction.

    • Thomas Ulrich
    • , Alice-Agnes Gabriel
    • , Jean-Paul Ampuero
    •  & Wenbin Xu
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Concept of learning from history assumes that information is handed between generations to avoid negative effect of hazards. Here the authors analysed human behaviour and decision making on post-flood settlements and showed flood memory faded away in two generations, which is insufficient to protect human settlements from rare catastrophic floods.

    • Václav Fanta
    • , Miroslav Šálek
    •  & Petr Sklenicka
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Active Atlantic hurricane seasons are favoured by positive sea surface temperature anomalies. Here the authors identify a new air-sea heat flux driver for these anomalies in the severe 2017 season, while the recent 2005 and 2010 severe seasons were mainly driven by weakened ocean overturning circulation.

    • Samantha Hallam
    • , Robert Marsh
    • , Simon A. Josey
    • , Pat Hyder
    • , Ben Moat
    •  & Joël J.-M. Hirschi
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Phyllosilicate minerals are critical components of seismogenic fault, shear and subduction zones. Here, the authors provide a new deformation mechanism for phyllosilicates, based on newly discovered crystallographic defects in biotite (ripplocations), affecting our understanding of fault zone processes.

    • Joe Aslin
    • , Elisabetta Mariani
    • , Karl Dawson
    •  & Michel W. Barsoum
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Using seismic data and numerical modelling, here, the authors characterize the three-month period of unrest occurring prior to the 2017 Agung eruption (Bali, Indonesia). They observe a large uplift signal located at ~5 km from Agung summit corresponding to the emplacement of a 10 km deep magma intrusion between Agung edifice and Batur caldera, suggesting a potential magmatic connection between the two volcanic systems.

    • Fabien Albino
    • , Juliet Biggs
    •  & Devy Kamil Syahbana
  • Article
    | Open Access

    The continental record of the end Permian mass extinction is limited, especially from high paleolatitudes. Here, Fielding et al. report a multi-proxy Permo-Triassic record from Australia, resolving the timing of local terrestrial plant extinction and the relationship with environmental changes.

    • Christopher R. Fielding
    • , Tracy D. Frank
    • , Stephen McLoughlin
    • , Vivi Vajda
    • , Chris Mays
    • , Allen P. Tevyaw
    • , Arne Winguth
    • , Cornelia Winguth
    • , Robert S. Nicoll
    • , Malcolm Bocking
    •  & James L. Crowley
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Tectonic faults weaken during slip in order to accelerate and produce earthquakes. Here the authors show a mechanism for weakening faults through the transformation of quartz to amorphous nanoparticulate wear powders that lubricate friction experiments, and transform back to quartz under geologic conditions.

    • Christie D. Rowe
    • , Kelsey Lamothe
    • , Marieke Rempe
    • , Mark Andrews
    • , Thomas M. Mitchell
    • , Giulio Di Toro
    • , Joseph Clancy White
    •  & Stefano Aretusini
  • Article
    | Open Access

    The upper-ocean warming, a consequence of anthropogenic global warming, is changing the global wave climate, making waves stronger. Here the author show that global wave power has been increasing and can represent a climate change indicator.

    • Borja G. Reguero
    • , Iñigo J. Losada
    •  & Fernando J. Méndez
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Climate extremes, exposure and vulnerability all contribute to global difference in heatwave risk. Here the authors investigated the inequality in global heatwave risk under both 1.5 and 2 °C scenarios and found that heatwave risk for the poor under 1.5 °C scenario exceeds that risk for the rich under 2 °C scenario.

    • Simone Russo
    • , Jana Sillmann
    • , Sebastian Sippel
    • , Monika J. Barcikowska
    • , Claudia Ghisetti
    • , Marek Smid
    •  & Brian O’Neill
  • Article
    | Open Access

    There is increasing evidence that the seismicity of large Himalayan earthquakes can be bimodal, but the underlying mechanisms are unclear. Here, the authors present a model and show that the bimodal seismicity results from a relatively higher friction and a non-planar geometry of the Himalayan megathrust.

    • Luca Dal Zilio
    • , Ylona van Dinther
    • , Taras Gerya
    •  & Jean-Philippe Avouac
  • Article
    | Open Access

    It is unclear whether the gut microbiome can mitigate or exacerbate arsenic toxicity. Here, Coryell et al. show that the human gut microbiome protects mice from arsenic-induced mortality, with protection levels correlating with the relative abundance of the human commensal Faecalibacterium.

    • Michael Coryell
    • , Mark McAlpine
    • , Nicholas V. Pinkham
    • , Timothy R. McDermott
    •  & Seth T. Walk
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Permafrost thaw poses a serious threat to the sustainable development of Arctic communities. Here the authors show that most fundamental Arctic infrastructure and population will be at high hazard risk, even if the Paris Agreement target is achieved.

    • Jan Hjort
    • , Olli Karjalainen
    • , Juha Aalto
    • , Sebastian Westermann
    • , Vladimir E. Romanovsky
    • , Frederick E. Nelson
    • , Bernd Etzelmüller
    •  & Miska Luoto
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Storm runoff extremes dominate flash flood formation and generation, posing a grand threat to ecosystems and communities across the world. Here the authors show that current projected response of these storm runoff extremes to climate and anthropogenic changes are underestimated.

    • Jiabo Yin
    • , Pierre Gentine
    • , Sha Zhou
    • , Sylvia C. Sullivan
    • , Ren Wang
    • , Yao Zhang
    •  & Shenglian Guo
  • Article
    | Open Access

    UNESCO World Heritage located in low-lying coastal areas is increasingly at risk from flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise. This study shows that up to 82% of cultural World Heritage sites located in the Mediterranean will be at risk from coastal flooding and over 93% from coastal erosion by 2100 under high-end sea-level rise.

    • Lena Reimann
    • , Athanasios T. Vafeidis
    • , Sally Brown
    • , Jochen Hinkel
    •  & Richard S. J. Tol
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Correlations between prehistoric eruptions and other phenomena depend on accurate dating of the eruption. Here the authors show that magmatic CO2 in groundwater can bias radiocarbon ages for eruptions and that plateaux of carbon isotopic values in tree ring sequences biased by magmatic CO2 foreshadow major eruptions.

    • Richard N. Holdaway
    • , Brendan Duffy
    •  & Ben Kennedy
  • Article
    | Open Access

    The structure of turbidity currents has remained unresolved mainly due to lack of observations. Here the authors present data from a high-resolution monitoring array deployed for 18 months over Monterey Bay, that suggests turbidity currents are driven by dense near-bed layers.

    • Charles K. Paull
    • , Peter J. Talling
    • , Katherine L. Maier
    • , Daniel Parsons
    • , Jingping Xu
    • , David W. Caress
    • , Roberto Gwiazda
    • , Eve M. Lundsten
    • , Krystle Anderson
    • , James P. Barry
    • , Mark Chaffey
    • , Tom O’Reilly
    • , Kurt J. Rosenberger
    • , Jenny A. Gales
    • , Brian Kieft
    • , Mary McGann
    • , Steve M. Simmons
    • , Mike McCann
    • , Esther J. Sumner
    • , Michael A. Clare
    •  & Matthieu J. Cartigny
  • Article
    | Open Access

    A warmer and drier climate will affect wildfire activity but the climate-fire relationship could change under warming. Here the authors use models with a non-stationary climate-fire relationship to show that to avoid doubling the burned area in the coming decades we must stay below 1.5 °C Paris target.

    • Marco Turco
    • , Juan José Rosa-Cánovas
    • , Joaquín Bedia
    • , Sonia Jerez
    • , Juan Pedro Montávez
    • , Maria Carmen Llasat
    •  & Antonello Provenzale
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Current ultraviolet (UV) sensors cannot differentiate between UVA, B and C, each of which has a remarkably different impact on human health. Here the authors show spectrally-selective colorimetric monitoring of ultraviolet radiations by developing a photoelectrochromic ink that consists of a multiredox polyoxometalate and an e donor.

    • Wenyue Zou
    • , Ana González
    • , Deshetti Jampaiah
    • , Rajesh Ramanathan
    • , Mohammad Taha
    • , Sumeet Walia
    • , Sharath Sriram
    • , Madhu Bhaskaran
    • , José M. Dominguez-Vera
    •  & Vipul Bansal
  • Article
    | Open Access

    The degree to which small and large earthquakes share the same rupture processes remains unknown. Here, the authors reveal earthquakes of magnitude 3–5 share almost identical growth processes shared, but while they are controlled by some characteristic structures, their final size remains unpredictable.

    • Takashi Okuda
    •  & Satoshi Ide
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Creeping serpentinite shear zones may host large earthquakes, but direct evidence of frictional heating and rupture have been missing. Here, the authors demonstrate via laboratory experiments that earthquake ruptures can propagate through serpentinite shear zones shown by high-temperature reaction products.

    • Matthew S. Tarling
    • , Steven A. F. Smith
    • , Cecilia Viti
    •  & James M. Scott
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of strain accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. Here, the authors reconstruct interseismic strain accumulation since the 1960 Chile earthquake, finding a transient evolution at decadal scale with implications for estimating the probability of future events.

    • Daniel Melnick
    • , Shaoyang Li
    • , Marcos Moreno
    • , Marco Cisternas
    • , Julius Jara-Muñoz
    • , Robert Wesson
    • , Alan Nelson
    • , Juan Carlos Báez
    •  & Zhiguo Deng
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Anticrack propagation in snow results from the mixed-mode failure and collapse of a buried weak layer and can lead to slab avalanches. Here, authors reproduce the complex dynamics of anticrack propagation observed in field experiments using a Material Point Method with large strain elastoplasticity.

    • J. Gaume
    • , T. Gast
    • , J. Teran
    • , A. van Herwijnen
    •  & C. Jiang
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Earthquakes rarely affect hydrothermal systems in non-magmatic context. Here the authors report outbursts of CO2 and hydrothermal disturbances triggered by the 2015 Nepal earthquake, revealing high sensitivity of Himalayan hydrothermal systems to co-, post- and possibly pre- seismic deformation.

    • Frédéric Girault
    • , Lok Bijaya Adhikari
    • , Christian France-Lanord
    • , Pierre Agrinier
    • , Bharat P. Koirala
    • , Mukunda Bhattarai
    • , Sudhan S. Mahat
    • , Chiara Groppo
    • , Franco Rolfo
    • , Laurent Bollinger
    •  & Frédéric Perrier
  • Review Article
    | Open Access

    Eruptive styles at a single volcano may transition from explosive to effusive behaviour (or vice versa) at any given time. This review examines the underlying controls on eruptive styles such as magma viscosity, degassing and conduit geometry at volcanoes with silicic compositions.

    • Mike Cassidy
    • , Michael Manga
    • , Kathy Cashman
    •  & Olivier Bachmann
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Societal exposure to large fires has been increasing in recent years and fire forecasting is required for fire management strategies. Here the authors use seasonal climate models to provide skilful predictions of global fire activity.

    • Marco Turco
    • , Sonia Jerez
    • , Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
    • , Amir AghaKouchak
    • , Maria Carmen Llasat
    •  & Antonello Provenzale
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Volatile contents in melt inclusions can be used to unravel magma migration and degassing. Here, the authors use olivine chronometry and melt inclusion data from the 2008 Llaima eruption and find that magma intrusion occurred 4 years before the eruption and reached a depth of 3–4 km, 6 months before the eruption.

    • Dawn C. S. Ruth
    • , Fidel Costa
    • , Caroline Bouvet de Maisonneuve
    • , Luis Franco
    • , Joaquin A. Cortés
    •  & Eliza S. Calder
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Giant submarine gravity flows are a key mechanism in global sediment transport, yet their properties remain enigmatic. Here, the authors reconstruct the properties of a historic giant submarine gravity flow from deposits across the seafloor.

    • Christopher John Stevenson
    • , Peter Feldens
    • , Aggeliki Georgiopoulou
    • , Mischa Schӧnke
    • , Sebastian Krastel
    • , David J. W. Piper
    • , Katja Lindhorst
    •  & David Mosher
  • Article
    | Open Access

    Changes in the sea-level annual cycle have a profound effect on the coast, yet little is known about their drivers. Here the authors show a considerable variability in the amplitude of the cycle along the United States Gulf and Southeast coasts and relate it to Atlantic Rossby waves.

    • Francisco M. Calafat
    • , Thomas Wahl
    • , Fredrik Lindsten
    • , Joanne Williams
    •  & Eleanor Frajka-Williams