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Recent autumn sea ice loss in the eastern Arctic enhanced by summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation
A recent phase shift of the summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO), featuring out-of-phase variations in upper-tropospheric temperatures between Asia and the North Pacific, accelerated autumn sea ice loss in the eastern Arctic.
- Botao Zhou
- , Ziyi Song
- & Haishan Chen
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Atlantic origin of the increasing Asian westerly jet interannual variability
The summer jet stream above East Asia has become more variable in recent decades, leading to weather and climate extremes across Eurasia. The authors show that a Scandinavian Pattern in preceding February is driving the strong variability.
- Lifei Lin
- , Chundi Hu
- & Dake Chen
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The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends
Arctic atmospheric rivers (ARs) have been increasing faster over the Atlantic sector than the Pacific sector in recent decades. The observed phase shift of interdecadal climate oscillations is key to explaining this disparity in Arctic AR trends.
- Weiming Ma
- , Hailong Wang
- & Wieslaw Maslowski
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Sustained growth of sulfur hexafluoride emissions in China inferred from atmospheric observations
Atmospheric measurements show that China’s emissions of the potent greenhouse gas, sulfur hexafluoride, grew rapidly between 2011 and 2021. This rise could offset some of China’s progress towards its greenhouse gas emission reduction goal.
- Minde An
- , Ronald G. Prinn
- & Matthew Rigby
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Anthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases
The authors use rain gauge measurements to derive data-driven estimates of how climate change impacts extreme rain in the US. They find that the expected rainfall increases driven by burning fossil fuels are offset with drying caused by anthropogenic aerosols.
- Mark D. Risser
- , William D. Collins
- & Paul A. Ullrich
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Hybrid AI-enhanced lightning flash prediction in the medium-range forecast horizon
In this work, authors propose a synergistic approach combining state-of-the-art deterministic forecasting model with artificial intelligence for predicting lightning occurrences. The strategy shows efficient predictive capabilities at medium-range forecast horizons.
- Mattia Cavaiola
- , Federico Cassola
- & Andrea Mazzino
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Accurate nowcasting of cloud cover at solar photovoltaic plants using geostationary satellite images
Accurate nowcasting of cloud cover or fraction and its movement remains a significant challenge for stable solar photovoltaic electricity generation. Here, the authors combine continuous radiance images with high spatio-temporal resolutions to develop a nowcasting algorithm for predicting cloud cover at a leading time of 0–4 h.
- Pan Xia
- , Lu Zhang
- & Shengjie Jia
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Increasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific partly driven by warming Tibetan Plateau
The weakened vertical wind shear is the primary driver behind increasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific monsoon trough. This weakening is partly driven by warming in the Tibetan Plateau.
- Jing Xu
- , Ping Zhao
- & Lu Liu
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A stratospheric precursor of East Asian summer droughts and floods
Summer floods and droughts show a north-south dipole in East Asia centered near 30°N. Here, the authors show that the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation plays an important role in this dipole and its prediction.
- Ruhua Zhang
- , Wen Zhou
- & Jiali Luo
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Robust changes in global subtropical circulation under greenhouse warming
In this paper, the authors reveal a robust weakening of the subtropical atmospheric circulation across CMIP6 models driven by global-mean surface warming, which is partially offset by the direct CO2 effect.
- Shijie Zhou
- , Ping Huang
- & Peng Hu
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Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice
A decadal-scale oscillatory pattern is identified that is a dominant mode of Antarctic sea ice variability. This mode is primarily driven by tropical-polar connections, offering insights into the multi-year predictability of Antarctic sea ice.
- Yusen Liu
- , Cheng Sun
- & Xichen Li
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The second Venus flyby of BepiColombo mission reveals stable atmosphere over decades
On its way to Mercury, BepiColombo spacecraft made two flybys of Venus. Here, the authors show spectrally resolved measurements of Venus’ atmosphere during BepiColombo’s second flyby and reveal that Venusian atmosphere has been stable since 1980s.
- Jörn Helbert
- , Rainer Haus
- & Harald Hiesinger
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Ocean fronts as decadal thermostats modulating continental warming hiatus
This paper shows the inherent coupling of winter cold extremes over land and marine heatwaves in the past decade. These events are projected to recur with increased frequency, especially when ocean fronts undergo anomalous decadal warming.
- Mi-Kyung Sung
- , Soon-Il An
- & Minhee Chang
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Middle east warming in spring enhances summer rainfall over Pakistan
In recent decades, land warming over the Middle East and a northward shift of the low-level jet in the atmosphere have led to unprecedented summer monsoon rainfall increase over Pakistan and northwestern India, areas that used to be arid to semi-arid.
- Baosheng Li
- , Lei Zhou
- & Raghu Murtugudde
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Evidence of an upper ionospheric electric field perturbation correlated with a gamma ray burst
Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are known to have impact on Earth’s lower ionosphere, but GRB impacts on the upper ionosphere was not observed before. Here, the authors show strong electric field variation at 500 km in the ionosphere caused by GRB221009A.
- Mirko Piersanti
- , Pietro Ubertini
- & Paolo Zuccon
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Origin of outer tropical cyclone rainbands
Convectively active, hazardous rainbands within tropical cyclones are shown to originate primarily from outside the inner core of the cyclone. This outer-origin dominance is partly attributed to squall-line processes and deserves future attention.
- Cheng-Ku Yu
- , Che-Yu Lin
- & Chi-Hang Pun
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Overemphasized role of preceding strong El Niño in generating multi-year La Niña events
This study shows the crucial role of subtropical ENSO dynamics linked to the North Pacific Meridional Mode in generating multi-year La Niña events, challenging the traditional views that emphasized the role of El Niño amplitude in the preceding year.
- Ji-Won Kim
- , Jin-Yi Yu
- & Baijun Tian
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Windows of opportunity for predicting seasonal climate extremes highlighted by the Pakistan floods of 2022
This paper highlights the potential for improved monitoring and physical understanding to identify windows of opportunity for more confident seasonal forecasts and early warnings of regional climate extremes, such as the Pakistan floods of 2022.
- Nick Dunstone
- , Doug M. Smith
- & Adam A. Scaife
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Moisture control of tropical cyclones in high-resolution simulations of paleoclimate and future climate
Despite hemispherically different responses, high-resolution model simulations used in this study show that moisture-related variables are the main regulators of tropical cyclone frequency under both orbital and greenhouse gas forcing.
- Pavan Harika Raavi
- , Jung-Eun Chu
- & Kevin J. E. Walsh
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Future precipitation increase constrained by climatological pattern of cloud effect
A new emergent constraint on precipitation projection, based on a unified surface-energy-balance perspective that links hydrological and climate sensitivity to climatological cloud distribution, suggests a higher increase in global mean precipitation under climate change.
- Wenyu Zhou
- , L. Ruby Leung
- & Jian Lu
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Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events
The study identifies windows of opportunity for multi-year climate predictions, depending on the state of ENSO. Predictions started during El Niño and La Niña exhibit higher skill than predictions started during neutral ENSO conditions.
- Yiling Liu
- , Markus. G. Donat
- & Carlos Delgado-Torres
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East Asian summer rainfall stimulated by subseasonal Indian monsoonal heating
The Indian and East Asian summer monsoons are found to be synchronized at the subseasonal timescale via a Rossby wave triggered by the Indian summer monsoon heating. The impact on East Asian precipitation varies with the subtropical jet structure.
- Shixue Li
- , Tomonori Sato
- & Wenkai Guo
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Propagation pathways of Indo-Pacific rainfall extremes are modulated by Pacific sea surface temperatures
The study reveals distinct extreme rainfall propagation modes driven by the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in the Indo-Pacific region. These are influenced by Pacific sea surface temperatures and offer the potential for early warnings.
- Felix M. Strnad
- , Jakob Schlör
- & Bedartha Goswami
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Deciphering local and regional hydroclimate resolves contradicting evidence on the Asian monsoon evolution
Distinguishing local hydrological, cave internal, and regional monsoon signals in speleothem records resolves disagreements among proxy reconstructions and illuminates the Holocene evolution of summer and winter monsoon in Southeast Asia.
- Annabel Wolf
- , Vasile Ersek
- & Anh Duc Trinh
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North African humid periods over the past 800,000 years
A climate model identifies that periodic wet phases in the Sahara, termed North African Humid Periods, were driven by Earths orbital variations and were suppressed during glacial periods due to the influence of extensive ice sheets.
- Edward Armstrong
- , Miikka Tallavaara
- & Paul J. Valdes
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Pacific decadal oscillation causes fewer near-equatorial cyclones in the North Indian Ocean
The north Indian Ocean is a hotbed for Low Latitude Cyclones (LLCs; originating between 5°N and 11°N). This study finds a remarkable decline in the frequency of LLCs in recent decades modulated by the remote influence of Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
- Shinto Roose
- , R. S. Ajayamohan
- & M. Rajeevan
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Weakened AMOC related to cooling and atmospheric circulation shifts in the last interglacial Eastern Mediterranean
The warm last interglacial serves as a period to investigate climate change associated with a weakened AMOC. Here the authors report evidence of Eastern Mediterranean cooling and accompanied atmospheric circulation shifts affecting rainfall.
- Elan J. Levy
- , Hubert B. Vonhof
- & Gerald H. Haug
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Recent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions
Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones has been occurring closer to land since 1980 due to climate change. This shift can degenerate the forecast skill and increase the danger that tropical cyclones pose to coastal regions.
- Yi Li
- , Youmin Tang
- & Qiang Wang
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QBO deepens MJO convection
This paper shows that the vertical growth of deep convective systems within Madden-Julian oscillation envelopes is facilitated by mean state changes in the upper-troposphere and lower-stratosphere during easterly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation winters.
- Daeho Jin
- , Daehyun Kim
- & Lazaros Oreopoulos
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Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections
Simultaneous harvest failures across crop-producing regions are major threats to global food security. A strongly meandering jet can trigger these, however, climate and crop models underestimate effects with consequences for climate risk assessments.
- Kai Kornhuber
- , Corey Lesk
- & Radley M. Horton
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Stratospheric water vapor affecting atmospheric circulation
This study investigates the role of water in the lower-most stratosphere, affecting dynamics of the stratosphere and troposphere, and shows that common water vapor transport schemes can cause biases, present in nearly all modern climate models.
- Edward Charlesworth
- , Felix Plöger
- & Martin Riese
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Rapid strengthening of westerlies accompanied intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation
The amount and composition of North Pacific dust tracked by rock magnetism suggests that the intensification of North Hemisphere Glaciation ca. 2.7 million years ago marked the permanent crossing of a climate threshold.
- Joshua D. Bridges
- , John A. Tarduno
- & Timothy D. Herbert
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Robust projection of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall based on dynamical modes of variability
Projecting regional hydrological response to climate change has been a longstanding challenge. By using the dominant precipitation modes as “fingerprints”, this study shows the robust Asian monsoon rainfall response to anthropogenic warming.
- Daokai Xue
- , Jian Lu
- & Yaocun Zhang
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Summer atmospheric circulation over Greenland in response to Arctic amplification and diminished spring snow cover
A shift in summer atmospheric circulation has accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet melt. The authors show that diminished North American snow cover supports these conditions by inducing a stationary Rossby wave that favors high pressure over Greenland.
- Jonathon R. Preece
- , Thomas L. Mote
- & Gabriel J. Kooperman
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Increase in Cape Verde hurricanes during Atlantic Niño
Atlantic Niño, the Atlantic counterpart of the Pacific El Niño, increases the likelihood of powerful hurricanes developing near the Cape Verde islands, elevating associated risks for the Caribbean islands and the U.S.
- Dongmin Kim
- , Sang-Ki Lee
- & Jason Dunion
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Matters Arising
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Reply to: Response to limited surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming
- Nicholas A. Davis
- , Jadwiga H. Richter
- & Emerson LaJoie
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Matters Arising
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Response to Limited surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming
- Judah Cohen
- , Laurie Agel
- & Ian White
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Article
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Role of the Maritime Continent in the remote influence of Atlantic Niño on the Pacific
Equatorial Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies force an eastward propagating atmospheric Kelvin wave, enabling the Atlantic to impact the Pacific, with the interaction of the Kelvin wave and the Maritime Continent critical in this teleconnection.
- Siying Liu
- , Ping Chang
- & Ingo Richter
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Lightning at Jupiter pulsates with a similar rhythm as in-cloud lightning at Earth
Potential similarities between Jovian and Earth lightning are helpful to understand involved properties. Here, the authors show that the Jovian lightning initiation processes are similar to those of intracloud lightning at Earth.
- Ivana Kolmašová
- , Ondřej Santolík
- & Radek Lán
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Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
This study shows that the occurrence frequency of global precipitation whiplash is projected to be ~2.6 times higher by the end of the 21st century compared to 1979–2019, with increasingly rapid and intense transitions between the two extremes.
- Xuezhi Tan
- , Xinxin Wu
- & Bingjun Liu
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Aerosol breezes drive cloud and precipitation increases
It is shown here that gradients in aerosol emissions, such as those that occur with wildfires or above cities, drive thermodynamic circulations called “aerosol breezes” that may enhance precipitation and cloudiness in the cleaner regions of the aerosol gradient.
- Gabrielle R. Leung
- & Susan C. van den Heever
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Increasing extreme melt in northeast Greenland linked to foehn winds and atmospheric rivers
Extreme ice sheet melt events in northeast Greenland occur after intense water vapor transport into northwest Greenland by atmospheric rivers. Through the foehn effect, the air becomes warmer and drier as it descends the ice sheet slope.
- Kyle S. Mattingly
- , Jenny V. Turton
- & Thomas L. Mote
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Matters Arising
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Reply to: No evidence of worsening Arctic springtime ozone losses over the 21st century
- Peter von der Gathen
- , Rigel Kivi
- & Markus Rex
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Sea level rise from West Antarctic mass loss significantly modified by large snowfall anomalies
The authors combine measurements of ice loss from West Antarctica with climate modelling to show that periods of drought or extremely heavy precipitation can significantly increase or decrease rates of mass loss for periods lasting several years.
- Benjamin J. Davison
- , Anna E. Hogg
- & Pierre Dutrieux
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Variability conceals emerging trend in 100yr projections of UK local hourly rainfall extremes
Climate projections at km-scale show that local hourly precipitation extremes in the UK become 4-times more frequent by 2070, while they do not intensify gradually with warming, but tend to cluster in time.
- Elizabeth J. Kendon
- , Erich M. Fischer
- & Chris J. Short
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Soil moisture-evaporation coupling shifts into new gears under increasing CO2
When soil moisture is within the transitional regime that is neither too dry nor too wet, its variation affects evaporation and thus climate. This study shows that, under global warming, more areas will experience a transitional regime.
- Hsin Hsu
- & Paul A. Dirmeyer
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North Atlantic oscillation controls multidecadal changes in the North Tropical Atlantic−Pacific connection
The drivers of multidecadal changes in the North Tropical Atlantic−Pacific connection are still not fully understood. Here, the authors show that they are mainly controlled by multidecadal variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation.
- Ruiqiang Ding
- , Hyacinth C. Nnamchi
- & Xumin Li
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The role of tropical waves in the genesis of Tropical Cyclone Seroja in the Maritime Continent
Tropical cyclone Seroja was one of the first cyclones to strike near-equatorial regions of Indonesia and East Timor. The unusual cyclogenesis close to a land mass was due to “perfect storm” conditions associated with multiple wave interactions.
- Beata Latos
- , Philippe Peyrillé
- & Adrian J. Matthews
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Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change
This study shows that climate change is expected to result in a 41% increase in the frequency of lightning worldwide. This increase has the potential to amplify the risk of lightning-induced wildfires.
- Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón
- , Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez
- & Patrick Jöckel
Northeast Pacific warm blobs sustained via extratropical atmospheric teleconnections