More Superstorm Sandys In Our Future?

As Superstorm Sandy demonstrated last October, the impact of global warming on Earth's weather and storms is REAL, and it's effects pose an enormous safety threat to people all over. If you thought that Hurricane Sandy was an unusual and rare "freak storm," think again, because pretty soon, the magnitude and power of Sandy might just become the norm for future hurricanes. On May 23, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season, beginning on June 1, will bring us "active or extremely active" hurricanes.

Normally, the Atlantic is hit with an average of twelve storms per season, with winds of 39 mph or higher. However, according to the NOAA outlook, there is a 70% chance that the Atlantic will experience an increase in this number, and that instead of twelve storms, we can experience up to 20 storms. In addition, NOAA predicted that up to eleven of these storms will develop into hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph, and that six of these can develop into major hurricanes, with winds greater than 111 mph. Compared to the seasonal average of three major hurricanes, this is a 100% increase, and will cause twice as much damage. If these statistics unfold as predicted, the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season could be very harsh and severe. Who wants to live through another Hurricane Sandy? Just thinking about this makes me anxious and apprehensive.

What is causing this increase in high-activity hurricanes?

To understand the answer to this question, you first need to know how hurricanes form. In order for a hurricane to form, the presence of warm, moist air is required, which comes from, you named it, warm oceans. As the moist air evaporates and rises rapidly, it creates low air pressure below. Air from high-pressure areas then begins to move into the low-pressure area, where it, too, becomes moist and warm, and eventually evaporates. While the risen air expands and cools off, it forms clouds, due to its high moisture content. This cycle continues, and eventually, a fast swirling mass of moving air forms. However, once a hurricane hits land, it gradually looses its power, due to the fact that it is no longer accessible to its source of power: the warm ocean.

Because a hurricane depends on warm, moist air, when the ocean temperature rises, it gives the storm more energy. This year, the Atlantic Ocean temperature is eight-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit greater than the normal temperature for this time of the year. Due to this increase, hurricanes will be able to harness more warm, moist air, and in turn, have more power.

According to NOAA, however, warmer water temperatures are not the only factor that will lead to a higher activity of hurricanes this season. A "strong west African monsoon" is held accountable, along with the lack of El Nino. The African monsoon will provide more energy to the hurricanes, and due to the lack of El Nino, which is normally responsible for strong winds that help suppress a hurricane's formation, hurricanes will be more likely to form.

Picture Credits:

350.org (via flickr)

Rob Wiliams (via flickr)

Sources:

"How do hurricanes form" NASA

"NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season" National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration May 23, 2013

Willie Drye "Improved Forecasting Will Help Track Hurricane Season" National Geographic News May 23, 2013