New research shows that the progression of renal fibrosis, as observed in patients with lupus nephritis, can be accurately simulated using mathematical modelling. The model was used to accurately predict the urinary concentrations of the putative biomarkers monocyte chemotactic protein-1 and transforming growth factor β in a subset of 47 patients with renal fibrosis of varying severity. Mathematical modelling could prove to be a cost-effective method for the identification of drug targets and novel candidate treatments for renal fibrosis.