Review
Nature Reviews Microbiology 6, 477-487 (June 2008) | doi:10.1038/nrmicro1845
Mathematical models of infectious disease transmission
Nicholas C. Grassly1 & Christophe Fraser1 About the authors
Abstract
Mathematical analysis and modelling is central to infectious disease epidemiology. Here, we provide an intuitive introduction to the process of disease transmission, how this stochastic process can be represented mathematically and how this mathematical representation can be used to analyse the emergent dynamics of observed epidemics. Progress in mathematical analysis and modelling is of fundamental importance to our growing understanding of pathogen evolution and ecology. The fit of mathematical models to surveillance data has informed both scientific research and health policy. This Review is illustrated throughout by such applications and ends with suggestions of open challenges in mathematical epidemiology.
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Author affiliations
- Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.
Correspondence to: Nicholas C. Grassly1 Email: n.grassly@imperial.ac.uk
Published online 13 May 2008
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