Analysis
Nature Reviews Microbiology 5, 700-709 (September 2007) | doi:10.1038/nrmicro1660
Modelling an outbreak of an emerging pathogen
Emily Kajita1,2, Justin T. Okano1, Erin N. Bodine1, Scott P. Layne2 & Sally Blower1 About the authors
Abstract
To illustrate the usefulness of mathematical models to the microbiology and medical communities, we explain how to construct and apply a simple transmission model of an emerging pathogen. We chose to model, as a case study, a large (>8,000 reported cases) on-going outbreak of community-acquired meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) in the Los Angeles County Jail. A major risk factor for CA-MRSA infection is incarceration. Here, we show how to design a within-jail transmission model of CA-MRSA, parameterize the model and reconstruct the outbreak. The model is then used to assess the severity of the outbreak, predict the epidemiological consequences of a catastrophic outbreak and design effective interventions for outbreak control.
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Author affiliations
- Semel Institute of Neuroscience & Human Behavior & Department of Psychiatry, UCLA AIDS Institute, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, 1100 Glendon Avenue PH2, Los Angeles, California 90024, USA.
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, UCLA, Los Angeles, California 90024, USA.
Correspondence to: Sally Blower1 Email: sblower@mednet.ucla.edu
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