Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • From the Analyst's Couch
  • Published:

What does it take to produce a breakthrough drug?

Nature Reviews Drug Discovery volume 14, pages 161–162 (2015)Cite this article

Subjects

This article has been updated

To better understand what it takes to produce a breakthrough drug, we analysed the actual success rates achieved in drug research and development (R&D) for HCV over the last 20 years. In parallel, we also investigated two other high-profile therapeutic areas: Alzheimer disease (AD) and drugs for antibiotic-resistant infections, in particular those due to methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). Details of the methodology are provided in Supplementary information S1 (box).

Each of these therapeutic areas has a clear unmet medical need and yet the ability to achieve success in meeting that need has been widely variable. At one end of the spectrum, R&D on HCV drugs has delivered a series of breakthroughs. At the other end of the spectrum, despite major and continuously growing investment, there are still no disease-modifying drugs available for Alzheimer disease. For antibiotics overall, R&D investment has not matched the growing serious threat of resistance to public health, in part due to the limited market incentives for antibiotic development. However, as demonstrated by the recent approvals of several new drugs for MRSA, attracting investment and achieving success is possible where there are sufficient incentives, given the risk involved.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Relevant articles

Open Access articles citing this article.

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Overview of drug development pipeline for hepatitis C virus from 1995–2014.
Figure 2: Attrition profiles across therapeutic areas.

Change history

  • 20 March 2015

    The competing interests statement has been expanded to specify the origins of the funding of BCG's health care practice in more detail.

Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge the contribution of M. Denslow to this work.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Boston Consulting Group, Two Embarcadero Center, Suite 2400, San Francisco, 94111, California, USA

    Dirk Calcoen, Laura Elias & Xiaomeng Yu

Authors
  1. Dirk Calcoen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Laura Elias
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Xiaomeng Yu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Dirk Calcoen.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors of this article are employees of The Boston Consulting Group (BCG), a management consultancy that works with the world's leading biopharmaceutical companies on R&D productivity issues across therapeutic areas. The research for this specific article was funded through work performed by BCG's health care practice, including partial funding from Gilead Sciences.

Related links

PowerPoint slides

Supplementary information

Supplementary information S1 (box)

Data sources and analysis details (PDF 258 kb)

Supplementary information S2 (figure)

Development timelines from 1995–2014 (PDF 252 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Calcoen, D., Elias, L. & Yu, X. What does it take to produce a breakthrough drug?. Nat Rev Drug Discov 14, 161–162 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/nrd4570

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nrd4570

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing: Translational Research

Sign up for the Nature Briefing: Translational Research newsletter — top stories in biotechnology, drug discovery and pharma.

Get what matters in translational research, free to your inbox weekly. Sign up for Nature Briefing: Translational Research