Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • From the Analyst's Couch
  • Published:

Outlook for the next 5 years in drug innovation

Nature Reviews Drug Discovery volume 11, pages 435–436 (2012)Cite this article

Subjects

Trends in R&D output

Growth in revenue generated by innovative products. Innovative products launched during the 2007–2011 period were estimated to deliver revenues of US$40 billion in 2011 (7% of pharmaceutical global sales, excluding generics and over-the-counter products). The next 5-year crop from 2012 to 2016 is expected to deliver revenues of $58 billion in 2016 (9% of global sales), representing a small but welcome source of revenue growth.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Relevant articles

Open Access articles citing this article.

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Compounds in clinical development by therapeutic area.
Figure 2: Innovative pipeline composition by therapeutic area.
Figure 3: Historic and forecasted number of launches.

References

  1. Paul, S. M. et al. How to improve R&D productivity: the pharmaceutical industry's grand challenge. Nature Rev. Drug Discov. 9, 203–215 (2010).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. David, E., Tramontin, T. & Zemmel, R. Pharmaceutical R&D: the road to positive returns. Nature Rev. Drug Discov. 8, 609–610 (2009).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Roy Berggren is at McKinsey & Company, 55 East 52nd Street, 16th Floor, New York, 10022, USA.,

    Roy Berggren

  2. Martin Møller is at McKinsey & Company, Ved Stranden 14, DK-1061 Copenhagen K, Denmark.,

    Martin Møller

  3. Rachel Moss is at McKinsey & Company, No. 1 Jermyn Street, London SW1Y 4UH, UK.,

    Rachel Moss

  4. Pawel Poda and Katarzyna Smietana are at McKinsey & Company, Plac Grunwaldzki 23, Wroclaw 50-365, Poland.,

    Pawel Poda & Katarzyna Smietana

Authors
  1. Roy Berggren
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Martin Møller
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Rachel Moss
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Pawel Poda
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Katarzyna Smietana
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Martin Møller.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Supplementary information Box S1

Data sources and analysis methodology (PDF 128 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Berggren, R., Møller, M., Moss, R. et al. Outlook for the next 5 years in drug innovation. Nat Rev Drug Discov 11, 435–436 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nrd3744

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nrd3744

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing: Translational Research

Sign up for the Nature Briefing: Translational Research newsletter — top stories in biotechnology, drug discovery and pharma.

Get what matters in translational research, free to your inbox weekly. Sign up for Nature Briefing: Translational Research