Nature Reviews Drug Discovery 11, 191-200 (March 2012) | doi:10.1038/nrd3681

OpinionDiagnosing the decline in pharmaceutical R&D efficiency

Jack W. Scannell1, Alex Blanckley1, Helen Boldon1 & Brian Warrington2  About the authors


The past 60 years have seen huge advances in many of the scientific, technological and managerial factors that should tend to raise the efficiency of commercial drug research and development (R&D). Yet the number of new drugs approved per billion US dollars spent on R&D has halved roughly every 9 years since 1950, falling around 80-fold in inflation-adjusted terms. There have been many proposed solutions to the problem of declining R&D efficiency. However, their apparent lack of impact so far and the contrast between improving inputs and declining output in terms of the number of new drugs make it sensible to ask whether the underlying problems have been correctly diagnosed. Here, we discuss four factors that we consider to be primary causes, which we call the 'better than the Beatles' problem; the 'cautious regulator' problem; the 'throw money at it' tendency; and the 'basic research–brute force' bias. Our aim is to provoke a more systematic analysis of the causes of the decline in R&D efficiency.

Author affiliations

  1. Jack W Scannell, Alex Blanckley and Helen Boldon are at Sanford C. Bernstein Limited, 50 Berkeley Street, Mayfair Place, London W1J 8SB, UK.
  2. Brian Warrington is at Phoenix IP Ventures, 45 The Drive, Hertford, Hertfordshire SG14 3DE, UK.

Correspondence to: Jack W. Scannell1 Email:

Published online 1 March 2012

Additional data