Abstract

On the basis of current consumption patterns, approximately 450 million adults will be killed by smoking between 2000 and 2050. At least half of these adults will die between 30 and 69 years of age, losing decades of productive life. Cancer and the total deaths due to smoking have fallen sharply in men in high-income countries but will rise globally unless current smokers, most of whom live in low- and middle-income countries, stop smoking before or during middle age. Tripling the taxes on tobacco could rapidly raise cessation rates and deter the initiation of smoking. Higher taxes, regulations on smoking and information for consumers could avoid at least 115 million smoking-associated deaths in the next few decades, including around 25 million cancer deaths.

Author affiliations

1. Centre for Global Health Research, St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto M5C 1N8, Canada.
   Email: prabhat.jha@utoronto.ca

Published online 20 August 2009

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