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Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change

Nature Geoscience volume 9, pages 656–664 (2016)Cite this article

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Abstract

Extratropical cyclones are storm systems that are observed to travel preferentially within confined regions known as storm tracks. They contribute to precipitation, wind and temperature extremes in mid-latitudes. Cyclones tend to form where surface temperature gradients are large, and the jet stream influences their speed and direction of travel. Storm tracks shape the global climate through transport of energy and momentum. The intensity and location of storm tracks varies seasonally, and in response to other natural variations, such as changes in tropical sea surface temperature. A hierarchy of numerical models of the atmosphere–ocean system — from highly idealized to comprehensive — has been used to study and predict responses of storm tracks to anthropogenic climate change. The future position and intensity of storm tracks depend on processes that alter temperature gradients. However, different processes can have opposing influences on temperature gradients, which leads to a tug of war on storm track responses and makes future projections more difficult. For example, as climate warms, surface shortwave cloud radiative changes increase the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient, but at the same time, longwave cloud radiative changes reduce this gradient. Future progress depends on understanding and accurately quantifying the relative influence of such processes on the storm tracks.

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Figure 1: Wintertime (December–February, DJF, in the Northern Hemisphere and June–August, JJA, in the Southern Hemisphere) storm tracks.
Figure 2: Mid-latitude precipitation extremes associated with storm tracks.
Figure 3: Schematic of a storm track.
Figure 4: Coupling between tropical Pacific SST and the storm track.

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Acknowledgements

T.A.S. and A.V. are supported by the David and Lucile Packard Foundation. T.A.S is supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. We acknowledge support from the National Science Foundation (T.A.S., AGS-1538944; P.A.O., AGS-1148594; E.A.B., AGS-1419818). The National Center for Atmospheric Research is also supported by the National Science Foundation. Y.T.H. is supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan (104-2111-M-002-005). C.I.G. is supported by Israel Science Foundation (1558/14). C.L. is supported by Research Council of Norway project jetSTREAM (231716). We thank participants of the World Climate Research Program's Stratosphere–troposphere processes and their Role in Climate Workshop on the Storm Tracks. We thank S. Pfahl for Fig. 2 and the reviewers whose comments helped to significantly improve the submitted manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of the Geophysical Sciences, The University of Chicago, Chicago, 60637, Illinois, USA

    T. A. Shaw

  2. Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4HQ, UK

    M. Baldwin

  3. Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, 80923, Colorado, USA

    E. A. Barnes

  4. Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 106 91, Sweden

    R. Caballero

  5. Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 106 91, Sweden

    R. Caballero

  6. The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, 91904, Israel

    C. I. Garfinkel

  7. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, 10617, Taiwan

    Y.-T. Hwang

  8. Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, 5020, Norway

    C. Li

  9. Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, Bergen, 5020, Norway

    C. Li

  10. Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, 02139, Massachusetts, USA

    P. A. O'Gorman

  11. Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique/IPSL, Ecole Normale Superieure/CNRS, Paris, 75006, France

    G. Rivière

  12. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, 80305, Colorado, USA

    I. R. Simpson

  13. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, 10964, USA

    A. Voigt

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Shaw, T., Baldwin, M., Barnes, E. et al. Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change. Nature Geosci 9, 656–664 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2783

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