Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Letter
  • Published:

Tropospheric ozone change from 1980 to 2010 dominated by equatorward redistribution of emissions

Nature Geoscience volume 9, pages 875–879 (2016)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Ozone is an important air pollutant at the surface1, and the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the troposphere2. Since 1980, anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors—methane, non-methane volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides (NOx)—have shifted from developed to developing regions. Emissions have thereby been redistributed equatorwards3,4,5,6, where they are expected to have a stronger effect on the tropospheric ozone burden due to greater convection, reaction rates and NOx sensitivity7,8,9,10,11. Here we use a global chemical transport model to simulate changes in tropospheric ozone concentrations from 1980 to 2010, and to separate the influences of changes in the spatial distribution of global anthropogenic emissions of short-lived pollutants, the magnitude of these emissions, and the global atmospheric methane concentration. We estimate that the increase in ozone burden due to the spatial distribution change slightly exceeds the combined influences of the increased emission magnitude and global methane. Emission increases in Southeast, East and South Asia may be most important for the ozone change, supported by an analysis of statistically significant increases in observed ozone above these regions. The spatial distribution of emissions dominates global tropospheric ozone, suggesting that the future ozone burden will be determined mainly by emissions from low latitudes.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Tropospheric O3 burden change (ΔBO 3) from 1980 to 2010.
Figure 2: Spatial distributions for ΔBO 3 (tons km−2) from 1980 to 2010.
Figure 3: Zonal annual average O3 change.
Figure 4: Zonal annual average NOy change.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. The Royal Society Ground-Level Ozone in the 21st Century: Future Trends, Impacts and Policy Implications (The Royal Society Science Policy, 2008).

  2. Myhre, G. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) Ch. 8 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).

    Google Scholar 

  3. Richter, A., Burrows, J. P., Nüss, H., Granier, C. & Niemeier, U. Increase in tropospheric nitrogen dioxide over China observed from space. Nature 437, 129–132 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Duncan, B. N. et al. A space-based, high-resolution view of notable changes in urban NOx pollution around the world (2005–2014). J. Geophys. Res. 121, 976–996 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  5. Lamarque, J. F. et al. Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10, 7017–7039 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Granier, C. et al. Evolution of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of air pollutants at global and regional scales during the 1980–2010 period. Climatic Change 109, 163–190 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Naik, V. et al. Net radiative forcing due to changes in regional emissions of tropospheric ozone precursors. J. Geophys. Res. 110, D24306 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Derwent, R. G. et al. Radiative forcing from surface NOx emissions: spatial and seasonal variations. Climatic Change 88, 385–401 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. West, J. J., Naik, V., Horowitz, L. W. & Fiore, A. M. Effect of regional precursor emission controls on long-range ozone transport—Part 1: short-term changes in ozone air quality. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 9, 6077–6093 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Fry, M. M. et al. The influence of ozone precursor emissions from four world regions on tropospheric composition and radiative climate forcing. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D07306 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Gupta, M. L., Cicerone, R. J. & Elliott, S. Perturbation to global tropospheric oxidizing capacity due to latitudinal redistribution of surface sources of NOx, CH4 and CO. Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 3931–3934 (1998).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Young, P. J. et al. Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Atmos. Chem. Phys. 13, 2063–2090 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution 2010—Part A Ozone and Particulate Matter (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, 2010).

  14. Cooper, O. R., Gao, R.-S., Tarasick, D., Leblanc, T. & Sweeney, C. Long-term ozone trends at rural ozone monitoring sites across the United States, 1990–2010. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D22307 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  15. Cooper, O. R., Andrew, O., Parrish, D. D. & Fahey, D. W. Challenges of a lowered U.S. ozone standard. Science 348, 1096–1097 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Verstraeten, W. W. et al. Rapid increases in tropospheric ozone production and export from China. Nat. Geosci. 8, 690–695 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Riahi, K. et al. RCP 8.5-A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Climatic Change 109, 33–57 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Lamarque, J.-F. et al. CAM-chem: description and evaluation of interactive atmospheric chemistry in the community Earth system model. Geosci. Model Dev. 5, 369–411 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Fiore, A. M., West, J. J., Horowitz, L. W., Naik, V. & Schwarzkopf, M. D. Characterizing the tropospheric ozone response to methane emission controls and the benefits to climate and air quality. J. Geophys. Res. 113, D08307 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Lawrence, M. G., von Kuhlmann, R., Salzmann, M. & Rasch, P. J. The balance of effects of deep convective mixing on tropospheric ozone. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 3–6 (2003).

    Google Scholar 

  21. Cooper, O. R. et al. Global distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone: an observation-based review. Elementa 2, 000029 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  22. Petzold, A. et al. Global-scale atmosphere monitoring by in-service aircraft—current achievements and future prospects of the European Research Infrastructure IAGOS. Tellus B 67, 28452 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Thompson, A. M. et al. Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) 1998–2004 tropical ozone climatology: 3. Instrumentation, station-to-station variability, and evaluation with simulated flight profiles. J. Geophys. Res. 112, D03304 (2007).

    Google Scholar 

  24. Ding, A. J. et al. Tropospheric ozone climatology over Beijing: analysis of aircraft data from the MOZAIC program. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 8, 1–13 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Logan, J. A. An analysis of ozonesonde data for the troposphere: recommendations for testing 3-D models and development of a gridded climatology for tropospheric ozone. J. Geophys. Res. 104, 16115–16149 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Tilmes, S. et al. Technical note: ozonesonde climatology between 1995 and 2011: description, evaluation and applications. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 12, 7475–7497 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Ziemke, J. R. et al. A global climatology of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone derived from Aura OMI and MLS measurements. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11, 9237–9251 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Parrish, D. et al. Lower tropospheric ozone at northern midlatitudes: changing seasonal cycle. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 1631–1636 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Parrish, D. D. et al. Long-term changes in lower tropospheric baseline ozone concentrations: comparing chemistry-climate models and observations at northern midlatitudes. J. Geophys. Res. 119, 719–5736 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  30. Fry, M. M. et al. Net radiative forcing and air quality responses to regional CO emission reductions. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 13, 5381–5399 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Moss, R. H. et al. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463, 747–756 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Schopp, W., Klimont, Z., Suutari, R. & Cofala, J. Uncertainty analysis of emissions estimates in the RAINS integrated assessment model. Environ. Sci. Policy 8, 601–613 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Bond, T. C. et al. Historical emissions of black and organic carbon aerosol from energy-related combustion, 1850–2000. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 21, GB2018 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Smith, S. J. et al. Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions: 1850–2005. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11, 1101–1116 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Ohara, T. et al. An Asian emission inventory of anthropogenic emission sources for the period 1980–2020. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 7, 4419–4444 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Liousse, C., Essamoi, E., Criqui, P., Granier, C. & Rosset, R. Explosive growth in African combustion emissions from 2005 to 2030. Environ. Res. Lett. 9, 035003 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. van der A, R. J. et al. Trends, seasonal variability and dominant NOx source derived from a ten year record of NO2 measured from space. J. Geophys. Res. 113, D04302 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Hilboll, A., Richter, A. & Burrows, J. P. Long-term changes of tropospheric NO2 over megacities derived from multiple satellite instruments. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 13, 4145–4169 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. Thompson, A. M. et al. Tropospheric ozone increases over the southern Africa region: bellwether for rapid growth in Southern Hemisphere pollution? Atmos. Chem. Phys. 14, 9855–9869 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Tilmes, S. et al. Description and evaluation of tropospheric chemistry and aerosols in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2). Geosci. Model Dev. 8, 1395–1426 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Garcia, R. R., Marsh, D. R., Kinnison, D. E., Boville, B. A. & Sassi, F. Simulation of secular trends in the middle atmosphere, 1950–2003. J. Geophys. Res. 112, D09301 (2007).

    Google Scholar 

  42. Fry, M. M., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Adelman, Z. & West, J. J. Air quality and radiative forcing impacts of anthropogenic volatile organic compound emissions from ten world regions. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 14, 523–535 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. West, J. J. et al. Co-benefits of global greenhouse gas mitigation for future air quality and human health. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 885–889 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Schultz, M. G. et al. REanalysis of the TROpospheric Chemical Composition over the Past 40 Years (RETRO)—A Long-term Global Modeling Study of Tropospheric Chemistry Final Report (Jülich/Hamburg, Germany, August 2007).

  45. Guenther, A. B. et al. The model of emissions of gases and aerosols from nature version 2.1 (MEGAN2.1): an extended and updated framework for modeling biogenic emissions. Geosci. Model Dev. 5, 1471–1492 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  46. Emmons, L. K. et al. Description and evaluation of the model for ozone and related chemical tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4). Geosci. Model Dev. 3, 43–67 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Prather, M. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) Annex II (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

Y.Z. and J.J.W. were funded by National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences grant no. 1 R21 ES022600-01 and Environmental Protection Agency STAR grants no. 834285 and RD83587801, and O.R.C. and A.G. were funded by NOAA’s Health of the Atmosphere and Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Programs. The contents are solely the responsibility of the grantee and do not necessarily represent the official views of the US EPA or other funding sources. We thank the NCAR AMWG for developing and maintaining the diagnostic package for the model evaluation. We acknowledge the free use of O3 observation data from NOAA GMD for the remote sites of Barrow, Mauna Loa, Samoa and South Pole; Global Atmosphere Watch World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases for Hohenpeissenberg, J. Schwab from University at Albany-SUNY for Whiteface Mountain, and P. Young of Lancaster University for processed ozonesonde climatology of ref. 25.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Yuqiang Zhang

    Present address: Present address: Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27709, USA.,

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Environmental Sciences and Engineering Department, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599, USA

    Yuqiang Zhang & J. Jason West

  2. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309, USA

    Owen R. Cooper & Audrey Gaudel

  3. Chemical Sciences Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA

    Owen R. Cooper & Audrey Gaudel

  4. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA

    Anne M. Thompson

  5. Laboratoire d’Aérologie, CNRS, Université Paul Sabatier Toulouse III, FR-31062 Toulouse, France

    Philippe Nédélec

  6. Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka 237-0061, Japan

    Shin-Ya Ogino

Authors
  1. Yuqiang Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Owen R. Cooper
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Audrey Gaudel
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Anne M. Thompson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Philippe Nédélec
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Shin-Ya Ogino
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. J. Jason West
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

Y.Z., J.J.W. and O.R.C. designed the study and Y.Z. and J.J.W. planned the model experiments. Y.Z. prepared the emission inputs, performed the model simulations, and prepared the figures. Y.Z. and A.G. conducted data analysis for observations, and J.J.W. and O.R.C. assisted with the data analysis. P.N., S.-Y.O. and A.M.T. provided observational data. Y.Z., J.J.W. and O.R.C. wrote the paper with comments from A.M.T and A.G.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to J. Jason West.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Information (PDF 8159 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Zhang, Y., Cooper, O., Gaudel, A. et al. Tropospheric ozone change from 1980 to 2010 dominated by equatorward redistribution of emissions. Nature Geosci 9, 875–879 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2827

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2827

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing Anthropocene

Sign up for the Nature Briefing: Anthropocene newsletter — what matters in anthropocene research, free to your inbox weekly.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing: Anthropocene