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Dynamics of the intertropical convergence zone over the western Pacific during the Little Ice Age

Nature Geoscience volume 8, pages 315–320 (2015)Cite this article

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Abstract

Precipitation in low latitudes is primarily controlled by the position of the intertropical convergence zone, which migrates from south to north seasonally. The Little Ice Age (defined as AD 1400–1850) was associated with low solar irradiance and high atmospheric aerosol concentrations as a result of several large volcanic eruptions. The mean position of the intertropical convergence zone over the western Pacific has been proposed to have shifted southwards during this interval, which would lead to relatively dry Little Ice Age conditions in the northern extent of the intertropical convergence zone and wet conditions around its southern limit. However, here we present a synthesis of palaeo-hydrology records from the Asian–Australian monsoon area that documents a rainfall distribution that distinctly violates the expected pattern. Our synthesis instead documents a synchronous retreat of the East Asian Summer Monsoon and the Australian Summer Monsoon into the tropics during the Little Ice Age, a pattern supported by the results of our climate model simulation of tropical precipitation over the past millennium. We suggest that this pattern over the western Pacific is best explained by a contraction in the latitudinal range over which the intertropical convergence zone seasonally migrates during the Little Ice Age. We therefore propose that rather than a strict north–south migration, the intertropical convergence zone in this region may instead expand and contract over decadal to centennial timescales in response to external forcing.

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Figure 1: Pattern of rainfall within the EASM region during the LIA.
Figure 2: Pattern of rainfall within the ASM region during the LIA.
Figure 3: Forcing and modelling results.

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Acknowledgements

Financial support for this research was provided by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China, the Natural Science Foundation of China (41403018) and the Chinese Academy of Science.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an 710061, China

    Hong Yan, Zhisheng An, Weijian Zhou & Yuhong Wang

  2. Joint Center for Global Change Studies (JCGS), Beijing 100875, China

    Hong Yan, Zhisheng An & Weijian Zhou

  3. The Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven 27570, Germany

    Wei Wei

  4. Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA

    Willie Soon

  5. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

    Zhonghui Liu

  6. Institute of Public Affairs, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia

    Robert M. Carter

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Contributions

H.Y. designed the study and wrote the manuscript. W.W. contributed to the section discussing climate model results. W.S. contributed significantly to improvements in the manuscript. Z.A., W.Z. and Z.L. contributed to discussion of the results and manuscript refinement. Y.W. and R.M.C. contributed to improving the English.

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Correspondence to Hong Yan.

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Yan, H., Wei, W., Soon, W. et al. Dynamics of the intertropical convergence zone over the western Pacific during the Little Ice Age. Nature Geosci 8, 315–320 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2375

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