Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Letter
  • Published:

Tropospheric ozone variations governed by changes in stratospheric circulation

Nature Geoscience volume 7, pages 340–344 (2014)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

The downward transport of stratospheric ozone is an important natural source of tropospheric ozone, particularly in the upper troposphere, where changes in ozone have their largest radiative effect1. Stratospheric circulation is projected to intensify over the coming century, which could lead to an increase in the flux of ozone from the stratosphere to the troposphere2,3,4. However, large uncertainties in the stratospheric contribution to trends and variability in tropospheric ozone levels5,6,7 make it difficult to reliably project future changes in tropospheric ozone8. Here, we use satellite measurements of stratospheric water vapour and tropospheric ozone levels collected between 2005 and 2010 to assess the effect of changes in stratospheric circulation, driven by El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, on tropospheric ozone levels. We find that interannual variations in the strength of the stratospheric circulation of around 40%—comparable to the mean change in stratospheric circulation projected this century2—lead to changes in tropospheric ozone levels in the northern mid-latitudes of around 2%, approximately half of the interannual variability. Assuming that the observed response of tropospheric ozone levels to interannual variations in circulation is a good predictor of its equilibrium response, we suggest that the projected intensification of the stratospheric circulation over the coming century could lead to small but important increases in tropospheric ozone levels.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Schematic of processes responsible for observed interannual variability in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone and the location of observations/diagnostics.
Figure 2: Time series of and relationships between ENSO/QBO, stratospheric circulation and ozone.
Figure 3: Latitude–pressure cross sections of ozone during La Niña/westerly shear QBO and El Niño/easterly shear QBO.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Forster, P. M. de F. & Shine, K. P. Radiative forcing and temperature trends from stratospheric ozone changes. J. Geophys. Res. 102, 10841–10855 (1997).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. in SPARC Report on the Evaluation of Chemistry Climate Models SPARC Report No. 5, WCRP-132, WMO/TD-No.1526 (eds Eyring, V., Shepherd, T. G. & Waugh, D. W.) (2010).

  3. Butchart, N. et al. Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation. Clim. Dynam. 27, 727–741 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Hegglin, M. I. & Shepherd, T. G. Large climate-induced changes in ultraviolet index and stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux. Nature Geosci. 2, 687–691 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Fusco, A. C. & Logan, J. A. Analysis of 1970–1995 trends in tropospheric ozone at Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes with the GEOS-Chem model. J. Geophys. Res. 108(D15), 4449 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Terao, Y., Logan, J. A., Douglass, A. R. & Stolarski, R. S. Contribution of stratospheric ozone to the interannual variability of tropospheric ozone in the northern extratropics. J. Geophys. Res. 113, D18309 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Hess, P. G. & Zbinden, R. Stratospheric impact on tropospheric ozone variability and trends: 1990–2009. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 13, 649–674 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (ed Solomon, S.et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, (2007).

  9. Collins, W. J. et al. Effect of stratosphere–troposphere exchange on the future tropospheric ozone trend. J. Geophys. Res. 108(D12), 8528 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Sudo, K., Takahashi, M. & Akimoto, H. Future changes in stratosphere–troposphere exchange and their impacts on future tropospheric ozone simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30(24), 2256 (2003).

    Google Scholar 

  11. Zeng, G., Morgenstern, O., Braesicke, P. & Pyle, J. A. Impact of stratospheric ozone recovery on tropospheric ozone and its budget. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L09805 (2010).

    Google Scholar 

  12. Calvo, N., Garcia, R. R., Randel, W. J. & Marsh, D. R. Dynamical mechanism for the increase in tropical upwelling in the lowermost tropical stratosphere during warm ENSO events. J. Atmos. Sci. 67, 2331–2340 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Simpson, I. R., Shepherd, T. G. & Sigmond, M. Dynamics of the lower stratospheric circulation response to ENSO. J. Atmos. Sci. 68, 2537–2556 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Baldwin, M. P. et al. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Rev. Geophys. 39, 179–229 (2001).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Oman, L. D. et al. The ozone response to ENSO in Aura satellite measurements and a chemistry-climate simulation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118, 965–976 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Holton, J. R. & Tan, H-C. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the Northern Hemisphere lower stratosphere. J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn 60, 140–148 (1982).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Gray, L. J. & Pyle, J. A. A two-dimensional model of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in ozone. J. Atmos. Sci. 46, 203–220 (1989).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Zheng, G. & Pyle, J. A. Influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on stratosphere/troposphere exchange and the global ozone budget. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L01814 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Voulgarakis, A., Hadjinicolaou, P. & Pyle, J. A. Increases in global tropospheric ozone following an El Niño event: Examining stratospheric ozone variability as a potential driver. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 12, 228–232 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Hsu, J. & Prather, M. J. Stratospheric variability and tropospheric ozone. J. Geophys. Res. 114, D06102 (2009).

    Google Scholar 

  21. Flury, T., Wu, D. L. & Read, W. G. Variability in the speed of the Brewer–Dobson circulation as observed by Aura/MLS. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 13, 4563–4575 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Olsen, M. A., Douglass, A. R. & Kaplan, T. B. Variability of extratropical ozone stratosphere–troposphere exchange using Microwave Limb Sounder observations. J. Geophys. Res. 118, 1090–1099 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  23. Wolter, K. & Timlin, M. S. Proc. 17th Climate Diagnostics Workshop Monitoring ENSO in COADS with a seasonally adjusted principal component index. 52–57 (Norman, OK, NOAA/NMC/CAC, NSSL, Oklahoma Clim. Survey, CIMMS and the School of Meteor., Univ. Oklahoma, (1993).

    Google Scholar 

  24. Free University of Berlin, updated from Naujokat, B., An update of the observed Quasi-Biennial Oscillation of the stratospheric winds over the tropics. J. Atmos. Sci. 43, 1873–1877 (1986).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Garfinkel, C. I. & Hartmann, D. L. Effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on polar temperatures in the stratosphere. J. Geophys. Res. 112, D19112 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Calvo, N., Giorgetta, M. A., Garcia-Herrera, R. & Manzini, E. Nonlinearity of the combined warm ENSO and QBO effects on the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex in MAECHAM 5 simulations. J. Geophys. Res. 114, D13109 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Plumb, R. A. Stratospheric transport. J. Meteor. Soc. Jpn 80, 793–809 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Lamarque, J-F. et al. CAM-chem: Description and evaluation of interactive atmospheric chemistry in the community earth system model. Geosci. Model Dev. 5, 369–411 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Shepherd, T. G. & McLandress, C. A robust mechanism for strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation under climate change: Critical-layer control of subtropical wave breaking. J. Atmos. Sci. 68, 784–797 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Kalnay, E. et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. B. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77, 437–471 (1996).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank the MLS and TES science teams and the Aura project for their support. We also thank J-F. Lamarque and D. Kinnison of the National Center for Atmospheric Research for providing CAM-Chem and WACCM modelling results, respectively, H. Nguyen of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory for help with the statistical analysis, T. Shepherd of the University of Reading for allowing us to include results from the CMAM model, and S. Hardiman of the UK Meterological Office for providing model residual vertical velocities. The research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Thomas Flury

    Present address: Present address: Swiss Federal Office of Public Health, Bern, 3003, Switzerland.,

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Dr Pasadena, California 91109, USA,

    Jessica L. Neu, Thomas Flury, Michelle L. Santee, Nathaniel J. Livesey & John Worden

  2. NorthWest Research Associates, Socorro, New Mexico 87801, USA

    Gloria L. Manney

  3. New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, New Mexico 87801, USA

    Gloria L. Manney

Authors
  1. Jessica L. Neu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Thomas Flury
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Gloria L. Manney
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Michelle L. Santee
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Nathaniel J. Livesey
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. John Worden
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

J.L.N. led the analysis and wrote the paper. T.F. calculated the tropical upwelling rates from MLS water vapour measurements. G.L.M., M.L.S. and N.J.L. provided expertise on the use of MLS data, and J.W. provided expertise on the use of TES data. All authors contributed comments on the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jessica L. Neu.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Information (PDF 403 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Neu, J., Flury, T., Manney, G. et al. Tropospheric ozone variations governed by changes in stratospheric circulation. Nature Geosci 7, 340–344 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2138

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2138

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing