Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

Model estimates of sea-level change due to anthropogenic impacts on terrestrial water storage

Subjects

Abstract

Global sea level has been rising over the past half century, according to tide-gauge data1,2. Thermal expansion of oceans, melting of glaciers and loss of the ice masses in Greenland and Antarctica are commonly considered as the largest contributors, but these contributions do not entirely explain the observed sea-level rise1. Changes in terrestrial water storage are also likely to affect sea level3,4,5,6, but comprehensive and reliable estimates of this contribution, particularly through human water use, are scarce1. Here, we estimate sea-level change in response to human impacts on terrestrial water storage by using an integrated model that simulates global terrestrial water stocks and flows (exclusive to Greenland and Antarctica) and especially accounts for human activities such as reservoir operation and irrigation. We find that, together, unsustainable groundwater use, artificial reservoir water impoundment, climate-driven changes in terrestrial water storage and the loss of water from closed basins have contributed a sea-level rise of about 0.77 mm yr−1 between 1961 and 2003, about 42% of the observed sea-level rise. We note that, of these components, the unsustainable use of groundwater represents the largest contribution.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: The terrestrial water storage contributions to sea-level change.
Figure 2: Estimates of various contributions to the observed SLC.

References

  1. Bindoff, N. et al. in IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) 385–432 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).

    Google Scholar 

  2. Church, J., White, N., Coleman, R., Lambeck, K. & Mitrovica, J. Estimates of the regional distribution of sea level rise over the 1950–2000 period. J. Clim. 17, 2609–2625 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Lettenmaier, D. & Milly, P. Land waters and sea level. Nature Geosci. 2, 452–454 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Chao, B. F., Wu, Y. H. & Li, Y. S. Impact of artificial reservoir water impoundment on global sea level. Science 320, 212–214 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Huntington, T. G. Can we dismiss the effect of changes in land-based water storage on sea-level rise? Hydrol. Process. 22, 717–723 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Milly, P., Cazenave, A. & Gennero, C. Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 100, 13158–13161 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Jacob, T., Wahr, J., Tad Pfeffer, W. & Swenson, S. Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise. Nature 482, 514–518 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Gornitz, V., Rosenzweig, C. & Hillel, D. Effects of anthropogenic intervention in the land hydrologic cycle on global sea level rise. Glob. Planet. Change 14, 147–161 (1997).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Milne, G., Gehrels, W., Hughes, C. & Tamisiea, M. Identifying the causes of sea-level change. Nature Geosci. 2, 471–478 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Ngo-Duc, T., Laval, K., Polcher, J., Lombard, A. & Cazenave, A. Effects of land water storage on global mean sea level over the past half century. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L09704 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Levitus, S., Antonov, J. & Boyer, T. Warming of the world ocean, 1955–2003. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L02604 (2005).

    Google Scholar 

  12. Antonov, J., Levitus, S. & Boyer, T. Thermosteric sea level rise, 1955–2003. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L12602 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Dyurgerov, M. & Meier, M. Glaciers and the Changing Earth System: A 2004 Snapshot (Occasional Paper 58, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, Univ. Colorado, 2005).

  14. Lemke, P. et al. in IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) 337–383 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).

    Google Scholar 

  15. Milly, P. C. D. et al. in Understanding Sea-Level Rise and Variability (eds Church, J. A. et al.) Ch. 8, 226–255 (Blackwell Publishing, 2010).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  16. International Commission on Large Dams, World Register of Dams, ICOLD, Paris, France (2003).

  17. Pokhrel, Y. et al. Incorporating anthropogenic water regulation modules into a land surface model. J. Hydrometeor. 13, 255–269 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Rodell, M., Velicogna, I. & Famiglietti, J. S. Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India. Nature 460, 999–1002 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Wada, Y. et al. Global depletion of groundwater resources. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L20402 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Sahagian, D., Schwartz, F. & Jacobs, D. Direct anthropogenic contributions to sea level rise in the twentieth century. Nature 367, 54–57 (1994).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Konikow, L. F. Contribution of global groundwater depletion since 1900 to sea-level rise. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L17401 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Tapley, B. D., Bettadpur, S., Ries, J. C., Thompson, P. F. & Watkins, M. M. GRACE measurements of mass variability in the Earth system. Science 305, 503–505 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Hanasaki, N., Kanae, S. & Oki, T. A reservoir operation scheme for global river routing models. J. Hydrol. 327, 22–41 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Kim, H., Yeh, P. J-F., Oki, T. & Kanae, S. Role of rivers in the seasonal variations of terrestrial water storage over global basins. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L17402 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Ngo-Duc, T., Polcher, J. & Laval, K. A 53-year forcing data set for land surface models. J. Geophys. Res. 110, D06116 (2005).

    Google Scholar 

  26. Döll, P. et al. Impact of water withdrawals from groundwater and surface water on continental water storage variations. J. Geodynam. 10.1016/j.jog.2011.05.001 (2012, in the press).

  27. Takata, K., Emori, S. & Watanabe, T. Development of the minimal advanced treatments of surface interaction and runoff. Glob. Planet. Change 38, 209–222 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Oki, T. & Sud, Y. Design of Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP)—A global river channel network. Earth Inter. 2, 1–37 (1998).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Hanasaki, N., Inuzuka, T., Kanae, S. & Oki, T. An estimation of globalvirtual water flow and sources of water withdrawal for major crops and livestock products using a global hydrological model. J. Hydrol. 384, 232–244 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Rost, S., Gerten, D., Bondeau, A., Lucht, W., Rohwer, J. & Schaphoff, S. Agricultural green and blue water consumption and its influence on the global water system. Wat. Resour. Res. 44, W09405 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank T. Ngo-Duc, H. Kim and Y. Wada for providing various data sets. We also thank C. R. Ferguson and J. Cho for the constructive comments on the manuscript. Y.N.P. acknowledges support from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan. This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-5, S-8) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan; KAKUSHIN Program of the MEXT; Japan Society for the Promotion of Science–KAKENHI, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (S) (23226012) and Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA), MEXT.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

Y.N.P., T.O. and N.H. designed the research, Y.N.P. carried out all simulations, S.K., P.J-F.Y. and T.J.Y. contributed intellectually to the analysis and interpretation of results. Y.N.P. wrote the manuscript and constructed figures with contributions from all authors, all authors discussed the results.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Yadu N. Pokhrel.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Information (PDF 2520 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Pokhrel, Y., Hanasaki, N., Yeh, PF. et al. Model estimates of sea-level change due to anthropogenic impacts on terrestrial water storage. Nature Geosci 5, 389–392 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1476

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1476

This article is cited by

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing