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Increased multidecadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation since 1781

Nature Geoscience volume 1, pages 844–848 (2008)Cite this article

Abstract

The North Atlantic Oscillation is a meridional oscillation of atmospheric mass measured between Iceland and the Açores1,2, which drives winter climate variability in eastern North America and Europe. A prolonged period of the positive phase during the 1990s led to the suggestion that anthropogenic warming was affecting the behaviour of the North Atlantic Oscillation3,4. However, instrumental records1,5 are too short to compare observations during periods of extended warm and cold hemispheric temperatures, and existing palaeoclimate reconstructions6,7 primarily capture terrestrial variability. Here we present a record of Sr/Ca, a sea surface temperature proxy, from a Bermuda coral from 1781 to 1999. We use this monthly resolved record to reconstruct past variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation at multiple frequencies. Our record shows enhanced multidecadal scale variability during the late twentieth century compared with the end of the Little Ice Age (1800–1850). We suggest that variability within the North Atlantic Oscillation is linked to the mean temperature of the Northern Hemisphere, which must be considered in any long-term predictions.

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Figure 1: Climate records from the North Atlantic region.
Figure 2: Spectral analysis of regional records.
Figure 3: NAOI records and wavelet analysis.

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Acknowledgements

We are indebted to A. Cohen for providing the coral samples and to M. McCartney. This analysis benefited greatly from the comments of P. Huybers and T. Farrar. Thanks to E. Boyle, A. Czaja, A. Solow, D. Ostermann, S. Smith, G. Webster, S. du Putron, G. Piniak, J. Pitt, D. Schrag, C. Bertrand, P. Landry, and D. Glover for informative conversations, technical and logistical help. A Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution OCCI Fellowship, and grants from NSF (OCE-0402728) and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution supported this work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, USA

    Nathalie F. Goodkin, Konrad A. Hughen, Scott C. Doney & William B. Curry

  2. University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong SAR

    Nathalie F. Goodkin

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  1. Nathalie F. Goodkin
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Correspondence to Nathalie F. Goodkin.

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Goodkin, N., Hughen, K., Doney, S. et al. Increased multidecadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation since 1781. Nature Geosci 1, 844–848 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo352

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