Nature | News Feature

The science myths that will not die

False beliefs and wishful thinking about the human experience are common. They are hurting people — and holding back science.

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Illustration by Ryan Snook

In 1997, physicians in southwest Korea began to offer ultrasound screening for early detection of thyroid cancer. News of the programme spread, and soon physicians around the region began to offer the service. Eventually it went nationwide, piggybacking on a government initiative to screen for other cancers. Hundreds of thousands took the test for just US$30–50.

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Across the country, detection of thyroid cancer soared, from 5 cases per 100,000 people in 1999 to 70 per 100,000 in 2011. Two-thirds of those diagnosed had their thyroid glands removed and were placed on lifelong drug regimens, both of which carry risks.

Such a costly and extensive public-health programme might be expected to save lives. But this one did not. Thyroid cancer is now the most common type of cancer diagnosed in South Korea, but the number of people who die from it has remained exactly the same — about 1 per 100,000. Even when some physicians in Korea realized this, and suggested that thyroid screening be stopped in 2014, the Korean Thyroid Association, a professional society of endocrinologists and thyroid surgeons, argued that screening and treatment were basic human rights.

In Korea, as elsewhere, the idea that the early detection of any cancer saves lives had become an unshakeable belief.

This blind faith in cancer screening is an example of how ideas about human biology and behaviour can persist among people — including scientists — even though the scientific evidence shows the concepts to be false. “Scientists think they're too objective to believe in something as folklore-ish as a myth,” says Nicholas Spitzer, director of the Kavli Institute for Brain and Mind at the University of California, San Diego. Yet they do.

These myths often blossom from a seed of a fact — early detection does save lives for some cancers — and thrive on human desires or anxieties, such as a fear of death. But they can do harm by, for instance, driving people to pursue unnecessary treatment or spend money on unproven products. They can also derail or forestall promising research by distracting scientists or monopolizing funding. And dispelling them is tricky.

Scientists should work to discredit myths, but they also have a responsibility to try to prevent new ones from arising, says Paul Howard-Jones, who studies neuroscience and education at the University of Bristol, UK. “We need to look deeper to understand how they come about in the first place and why they're so prevalent and persistent.”

Some dangerous myths get plenty of air time: vaccines cause autism, HIV doesn't cause AIDS. But many others swirl about, too, harming people, sucking up money, muddying the scientific enterprise — or simply getting on scientists' nerves. Here, Nature looks at the origins and repercussions of five myths that refuse to die.

Myth 1: Screening saves lives for all types of cancer

Regular screening might be beneficial for some groups at risk of certain cancers, such as lung, cervical and colon, but this isn't the case for all tests. Still, some patients and clinicians defend the ineffective ones fiercely.

The belief that early detection saves lives originated in the early twentieth century, when doctors realized that they got the best outcomes when tumours were identified and treated just after the onset of symptoms. The next logical leap was to assume that the earlier a tumour was found, the better the chance of survival. “We've all been taught, since we were at our mother's knee, the way to deal with cancer is to find it early and cut it out,” says Otis Brawley, chief medical officer for the American Cancer Society.

But evidence from large randomized trials for cancers such as thyroid, prostate and breast has shown that early screening is not the lifesaver it is often advertised as. For example, a Cochrane review of five randomized controlled clinical trials totalling 341,342 participants found that screening did not significantly decrease deaths due to prostate cancer1.

“People seem to imagine the mere fact that you found a cancer so-called early must be a benefit. But that isn't so at all,” says Anthony Miller at the University of Toronto in Canada. Miller headed the Canadian National Breast Screening Study, a 25-year study of 89,835 women aged 40–59 years old2 that found that annual mammograms did not reduce mortality from breast cancer. That's because some tumours will lead to death irrespective of when they are detected and treated. Meanwhile, aggressive early screening has a slew of negative health effects. Many cancers grow slowly and will do no harm if left alone, so people end up having unnecessary thyroidectomies, mastectomies and prostatectomies. So on a population level, the benefits (lives saved) do not outweigh the risks (lives lost or interrupted by unnecessary treatment).

Still, individuals who have had a cancer detected and then removed are likely to feel that their life was saved, and these personal experiences help to keep the misconception alive. And oncologists routinely debate what ages and other risk factors would benefit from regular screening.

Focusing so much attention on the current screening tests comes at a cost for cancer research, says Brawley. “In breast cancer, we've spent so much time arguing about age 40 versus age 50 and not about the fact that we need a better test,” such as one that could detect fast-growing rather than slow-growing tumours. And existing diagnostics should be rigorously tested to prove that they actually save lives, says epidemiologist John Ioannidis of the Stanford Prevention Research Center in California, who this year reported that very few screening tests for 19 major diseases actually reduced mortality3.

Changing behaviours will be tough. Gilbert Welch at the Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice in Lebanon, New Hampshire, says that individuals would rather be told to get a quick test every few years than be told to eat well and exercise to prevent cancer. “Screening has become an easy way for both doctor and patient to think they are doing something good for their health, but their risk of cancer hasn't changed at all.”

Illustration by Ryan Snook

Myth 2: Antioxidants are good and free radicals are bad

In December 1945, chemist Denham Harman's wife suggested that he read an article in Ladies' Home Journal entitled 'Tomorrow You May Be Younger'. It sparked his interest in ageing, and years later, as a research associate at the University of California, Berkeley, Harman had a thought “out of the blue”, as he later recalled. Ageing, he proposed, is caused by free radicals, reactive molecules that build up in the body as by-products of metabolism and lead to cellular damage.

Scientists rallied around the free-radical theory of ageing, including the corollary that antioxidants, molecules that neutralize free radicals, are good for human health. By the 1990s, many people were taking antioxidant supplements, such as vitamin C and β-carotene. It is “one of the few scientific theories to have reached the public: gravity, relativity and that free radicals cause ageing, so one needs to have antioxidants”, says Siegfried Hekimi, a biologist at McGill University in Montreal, Canada.

Yet in the early 2000s, scientists trying to build on the theory encountered bewildering results: mice genetically engineered to overproduce free radicals lived just as long as normal mice4, and those engineered to overproduce antioxidants didn't live any longer than normal5. It was the first of an onslaught of negative data, which initially proved difficult to publish. The free-radical theory “was like some sort of creature we were trying to kill. We kept firing bullets into it, and it just wouldn't die,” says David Gems at University College London, who started to publish his own negative results in 2003 (ref. 6). Then, one study in humans7 showed that antioxidant supplements prevent the health-promoting effects of exercise, and another associated them with higher mortality8.

None of those results has slowed the global antioxidant market, which ranges from food and beverages to livestock feed additives. It is projected to grow from US$2.1 billion in 2013 to $3.1 billion in 2020. “It's a massive racket,” says Gems. “The reason the notion of oxidation and ageing hangs around is because it is perpetuated by people making money out of it.”

Today, most researchers working on ageing agree that free radicals can cause cellular damage, but that this seems to be a normal part of the body's reaction to stress. Still, the field has wasted time and resources as a result. And the idea still holds back publications on possible benefits of free radicals, says Michael Ristow, a metabolism researcher at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, Switzerland. “There is a significant body of evidence sitting in drawers and hard drives that supports this concept, but people aren't putting it out,” he says. “It's still a major problem.”

Some researchers also question the broader assumption that molecular damage of any kind causes ageing. “There's a question mark about whether really the whole thing should be chucked out,” says Gems. The trouble, he says, is that “people don't know where to go now”.

Illustration by Ryan Snook

Myth 3: Humans have exceptionally large brains

The human brain — with its remarkable cognition — is often considered to be the pinnacle of brain evolution. That dominance is often attributed to the brain's exceptionally large size in comparison to the body, as well as its density of neurons and supporting cells, called glia.

None of that, however, is true. “We cherry-pick the numbers that put us on top,” says Lori Marino, a neuroscientist at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia. Human brains are about seven times larger than one might expect relative to similarly sized animals. But mice and dolphins have about the same proportions, and some birds have a larger ratio.

“Human brains respect the rules of scaling. We have a scaled-up primate brain,” says Chet Sherwood, a biological anthropologist at George Washington University in Washington DC. Even cell counts have been inflated: articles, reviews and textbooks often state that the human brain has 100 billion neurons. More accurate measures suggest that the number is closer to 86 billion. That may sound like a rounding error, but 14 billion neurons is roughly the equivalent of two macaque brains.

Human brains are different from those of other primates in other ways: Homo sapiens evolved an expanded cerebral cortex — the part of the brain involved in functions such as thought and language — and unique changes in neural structure and function in other areas of the brain.

The myth that our brains are unique because of an exceptional number of neurons has done a disservice to neuroscience because other possible differences are rarely investigated, says Sherwood, pointing to the examples of energy metabolism, rates of brain-cell development and long-range connectivity of neurons. “These are all places where you can find human differences, and they seem to be relatively unconnected to total numbers of neurons,” he says.

The field is starting to explore these topics. Projects such as the US National Institutes of Health's Human Connectome Project and the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne's Blue Brain Project are now working to understand brain function through wiring patterns rather than size.

Myth 4: Individuals learn best when taught in their preferred learning style

People attribute other mythical qualities to their unexceptionally large brains. One such myth is that individuals learn best when they are taught in the way they prefer to learn. A verbal learner, for example, supposedly learns best through oral instructions, whereas a visual learner absorbs information most effectively through graphics and other diagrams.

There are two truths at the core of this myth: many people have a preference for how they receive information, and evidence suggests that teachers achieve the best educational outcomes when they present information in multiple sensory modes. Couple that with people's desire to learn and be considered unique, and conditions are ripe for myth-making.

“Learning styles has got it all going for it: a seed of fact, emotional biases and wishful thinking,” says Howard-Jones. Yet just like sugar, pornography and television, “what you prefer is not always good for you or right for you,” says Paul Kirschner, an educational psychologist at the Open University of the Netherlands.

In 2008, four cognitive neuroscientists reviewed the scientific evidence for and against learning styles. Only a few studies had rigorously put the ideas to the test and most of those that did showed that teaching in a person's preferred style had no beneficial effect on his or her learning. “The contrast between the enormous popularity of the learning-styles approach within education and the lack of credible evidence for its utility is, in our opinion, striking and disturbing,” the authors of one study wrote9.

That hasn't stopped a lucrative industry from pumping out books and tests for some 71 proposed learning styles. Scientists, too, perpetuate the myth, citing learning styles in more than 360 papers during the past 5 years. “There are groups of researchers who still adhere to the idea, especially folks who developed questionnaires and surveys for categorizing people. They have a strong vested interest,” says Richard Mayer, an educational psychologist at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

In the past few decades, research into educational techniques has started to show that there are interventions that do improve learning, including getting students to summarize or explain concepts to themselves. And it seems almost all individuals, barring those with learning disabilities, learn best from a mixture of words and graphics, rather than either alone.

Yet the learning-styles myth makes it difficult to get these evidence-backed concepts into classrooms. When Howard-Jones speaks to teachers to dispel the learning-styles myth, for example, they often don't like to hear what he has to say. “They have disillusioned faces. Teachers invested hope, time and effort in these ideas,” he says. “After that, they lose interest in the idea that science can support learning and teaching.”

Illustration by Ryan Snook

Myth 5: The human population is growing exponentially (and we're doomed)

Fears about overpopulation began with Reverend Thomas Malthus in 1798, who predicted that unchecked exponential population growth would lead to famine and poverty.

But the human population has not and is not growing exponentially and is unlikely to do so, says Joel Cohen, a populations researcher at the Rockefeller University in New York City. The world’s population is now growing at just half the rate it was before 1965. Today there are an estimated 7.3 billion people, and that is projected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050. Yet beliefs that the rate of population growth will lead to some doomsday scenario have been continually perpetuated. Celebrated physicist Albert Bartlett, for example, gave more than 1,742 lectures on exponential human population growth and the dire consequences starting in 1969.

The world's population also has enough to eat. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the rate of global food production outstrips the growth of the population. People grow enough calories in cereals alone to feed between 10 billion and 12 billion people. Yet hunger and malnutrition persist worldwide. This is because about 55% of the food grown is divided between feeding cattle, making fuel and other materials or going to waste, says Cohen. And what remains is not evenly distributed — the rich have plenty, the poor have little. Likewise, water is not scarce on a global scale, even though 1.2 billion people live in areas where it is.

“Overpopulation is really not overpopulation. It's a question about poverty,” says Nicholas Eberstadt, a demographer at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank based in Washington DC. Yet instead of examining why poverty exists and how to sustainably support a growing population, he says, social scientists and biologists talk past each other, debating definitions and causes of overpopulation.

Cohen adds that “even people who know the facts use it as an excuse not to pay attention to the problems we have right now”, pointing to the example of economic systems that favour the wealthy.

Like others interviewed for this article, Cohen is less than optimistic about the chances of dispelling the idea of overpopulation and other ubiquitous myths (see ‘Myths that persist’), but he agrees that it is worthwhile to try to prevent future misconceptions. Many myths have emerged after one researcher extrapolated beyond the narrow conclusions of another's work, as was the case for free radicals. That “interpretation creep”, as Spitzer calls it, can lead to misconceptions that are hard to excise. To prevent that, “we can make sure an extrapolation is justified, that we're not going beyond the data”, suggests Spitzer. Beyond that, it comes down to communication, says Howard-Jones. Scientists need to be effective at communicating ideas and get away from simple, boiled-down messages.

Myths that persist

Nature polled doctors and scientists for the medical myths that they find most frustrating. Here's what turned up.

Vaccines cause autism
Although there are some risks associated with vaccines, the connection to neurological disorders has been debunked many times over.

Paracetamol (acetaminophen) works through known mechanisms
Although it is widely used, there are only hints as to how it and other common drugs actually work.

The brain is walled off from the immune system
The brain has its own immune cells, and a lymphatic system that connects the brain to the body's immune system has recently been discovered.

Homeopathy works.
It doesn't.

Once a myth is here, it is often here to stay. Psychological studies suggest that the very act of attempting to dispel a myth leads to stronger attachment to it. In one experiment, exposure to pro-vaccination messages reduced parents' intention to vaccinate their children in the United States. In another, correcting misleading claims from politicians increased false beliefs among those who already held them. “Myths are almost impossible to eradicate,” says Kirschner. “The more you disprove it, often the more hard core it becomes.”

Journal name:
Nature
Volume:
528,
Pages:
322–325
Date published:
()
DOI:
doi:10.1038/528322a

References

  1. Ilic, D., Neuberger, M. M., Djulbegovic, M. & Dahm, P. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 1, CD004720 (2013).

  2. Miller, A. B. et al. Br. Med. J. 348, g366 (2014).

  3. Saquib, N., Saquib, J. & Ioannidis, J. P. A. Int. J. Epidemiol. 44, 264277 (2015).

  4. Doonan, R. et al. Genes Dev. 22, 32363241 (2008).

  5. Pérez, V. I. et al. Aging Cell 8, 7375 (2009).

  6. Keaney, M. & Gems, D. Free Radic. Biol. Med. 34, 277282 (2003).

  7. Ristow, M. et al. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 86658670 (2009).

  8. Bjelakovic, G., Nikolova, D. & Gluud, C. J. Am. Med. Assoc. 310, 11781179 (2013).

  9. Pashler, H., McDaniel, M., Rohrer, D. & Bjork, R. Psychol. Sci. Public Interest 9, 105119 (2008).

Author information

Affiliations

  1. Megan Scudellari is a science journalist in Boston, Massachusetts.

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  1. Avatar for Brian Sanderson
    Brian Sanderson
    A demographer from a conservative think tank says: “Overpopulation is really not overpopulation. It's a question about poverty,” Well, an ecologist would recognize that when a population grows to a point where resources become difficult to obtain then the result is privation. Of course we are talking about a conservative think tank. That is to say, the very people who are intrinsically wedded to an economic theory that is predicated upon growth, a religious model of more growth, and a political model of more growth. So what we see here is an organization that is founded in dogma telling me (an independent scientist) how it is. The things that are really distorting science are: (1) Values/dogma imposed by companies that publish science. (2) Values/dogma imposed by governments and institutions that fund science. (3) Values/dogma imposed by governments and institutions that hire scientists. As for all this stuff about poverty being because resources are not uniformly distributed. Well, you may as well complain about the the temperature of the Earth not being a uniform 16 deg C everywhere! Ecologists have understood this stuff for a very long time. Some others wish it were not so and so they refuse to know. People are smart. They occupy the best places first. An ecologist might say that people who live in an abundant niche live well. If the population continues to grow beyond what can be sustained by the best places, then some will be forced to live in not such good places. This is just one of many ways in which continued population growth causes poverty. But wait, it gets worse. Ember and Ember show that the expectation of resource scarcity leads to war http://www.sociostudies.org/journal/articles/140502/ and a society that has been at war becomes a more violent society. Thus, overpopulation casts a very long shadow. Way back around 1980 Paul Colinvaux arrived at the same results by reasoning from a solid biological foundation: "Why Big Fierce Animals Are Rare" and "Fates of Nations: a biological theory of history". Such things are not "politically correct". It seems that whole branch of science has basically stalled. Indeed, from what I read in Nature, it may have gone way backwards...
  2. Avatar for Karin Kuhlemann
    Karin Kuhlemann
    By declaring overpopulation to be a "myth", Ms Scudellari has put forward an astonishing and empirically false claim: that not only our current numbers are not a problem, that no amount of foreseeable population growth will cause any real problems. Does Ms Scudellari put forward any evidence that population growth is a neutral factor in relation to climate change, freshwater scarcity, soil degradation, pollution, overfishing, deforestation, mass extinctions, unemployment and sub-employment, displacement, conflict, food insecurity, poverty? No, none of these key aspects of overpopulation are touched on. Ms Scudellari apparently believes that the reality of overpopulation turns on whether the current rate of growth is exponential or not, and on whether we currently make enough food for a few billion more (whether or not sustainably). One scientist is quoted in support of her contention, Joel Cohen. Incidentally, Mr Cohen has previously published a study which concluded that "Population growth was faster than exponential from about 1400 to 1970" (Cohen, 1995, Science vol. 269), and more recently expressed concern that "The population doubled in the most recent 40 years. Never before the second half of the 20th century had any person lived through a doubling of global population. Now some have lived through a tripling. The human species lacks any prior experience with such rapid growth and large numbers of its own species. (...) The annual addition of 77 million people poses formidable challenges of food, housing, education, health, employment, political organization and public order"(Cohen, 2003 Science vol 302). One is left to wonder if Mr Cohen was aware which "myth" Ms Scudellari's article purported to bust when he agreed to be quoted as supportive of her view. There were only one billion of us a mere 220 years ago; by the end of this century, there will be some 11 or 12 billion people struggling for survival in a planet ravaged by climate change and resource depletion. Yet even today the issue of overpopulation is not openly discussed and as such does not feature in the decision-making of couples when considering how many children to have. Even today opposition to family planning services is common, even in developed countries such as the US. Even today we see politicians debating the need to promote (as opposed to tackle) population growth in a futile and self-destructive bid to mask unsustainable fiscal systems. Suggestions that major technological fixes will be found that will enable us to overcome overpopulation are entirely speculative and cannot guide our assessment of the risks. Ms Scudellari's piece will serve to further confuse an already under-informed public on the most serious issue facing humankind this century: the unsustainable pressures imposed by a global population that has grown far too large for its appetites and aspirations. I truly hope Nature will retract no 5 of Ms Scudellari's piece or at the very least publishing one or more robust rebuttals (which should not be difficult).
  3. Avatar for Brian Sanderson
    Brian Sanderson
    There are many shortcomings in this article, so I thought I'd start with one point of agreement. Population growth is not exponential. BUT, the annual increase in World human population has not decreased. It is as high as ever. Whether the population grows as an exponential or some other function is not the point! Here are some numbers for a "developed" country where fertility level is said to be low: From 1951-1960 Canada's population grew by 3.8 million From 2001-2010 Canada's population grew by 3.3 million I challenge you to do the same calculation for "undeveloped" countries... The baby boom never ended --- it just got lost in the crowd! As for water shortages. The amount of water has not substantially changed. Indeed, if global warming is real then we might expect both more evaporation and more precipitation. If there is a shortage, it is because there are too many people for available water. The following article: http://www.pnas.org/content/111/9/3245.full.pdf documents water shortages and anticipates ever greater shortages in future. If you read the paper then you will find the following essential statement: "Population growth plays a major role in this increase in water scarcity because it reduces per-capita availability even with unchanged resources." The author spins the article so that 40% of the shortage is due to global warming and 60% due to population growth. Nature spins the same results as though it is all due to global warming: http://www.nature.com/news/water-risk-as-world-warms-1.14446?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20140102 As a matter of fact, who can doubt that the carbon emissions would be substantially less if human population had not increased by about 6 billion since the introduction of machines that run on fossil fuel? Global warming is a proximate reason. Population growth is the ultimate reason. Everything scales with human population. Water shortages, many forms of poverty, aggressive warfare, mass migrations, the decline of habitat for other species... and, of course, global warming. Now back to the beginning. Why is the rate of population growth declining? For exactly the reason that Albert Bartlett said it would: because the world is getting overstuffed and making it more difficult to increase population. But still it grows as fast as ever... Eventually population will saturate, when life becomes sufficiently miserable for most of the people. Lead the way Nature!
  4. Avatar for Frosty Wooldridge
    Frosty Wooldridge
    Mother Earth Weeps Over Species Extinction: Human Population Onslaught By Frosty Wooldridge Oxford University biologist Norman Myers reported that humanity causes the “Sixth Extinction Session” accelerating throughout the animal kingdom. Climate changes, meteors, ice ages and massive burns created the first five mass extinction sessions. Myers worked for decades in the rain forests worldwide to come up Mother with a figure of 100 species facing extinction every day of the year. (Source: Oxford University Study, worldwide extinction rates.) “Upwards of one hundred species.. mostly of the large, slow-breeding variety.. are becoming extinct here every day because more and more of the earth's carrying capacity is systematically being converted into human carrying capacity. These species are being burnt out, starved out, and squeezed out of existence.. thanks to technologies that most people, I'm afraid, think of as technologies of peace. I hope it will not be too long before the technologies that support our population explosion begin to be perceived as no less hazardous to the future of life on this planet than the endless production of radioactive wastes.” Daniel Quinn Notwithstanding, the human race adds 80 million, net gain, annually. Humans grow like a hungry mob of demons devouring everything in their path. If it’s the last black rhino in Africa, humans poach it to extinction for the last trophy horns on someone’s mantle. If it’s Cecil the lion, a dentist extinguishes its life for a “victory” picture on his fireplace. If it’s the monarch butterflies of California now extinguished by 90 percent in 20 years, Monsanto continues selling “Roundup weed killer” to make certain monarchs never fly again. Humans kill 100,000,000 (million) sharks in the oceans every year, decade in and decade out. Countries don’t care, their leaders don’t care, religious leaders don’t care, and in fact, nobody cares.But everybody loses the essence of Mother Earth.At some point, when the grizzly vanishes, the humpback whale sings its last song or the hummingbird makes its last flower run---the human race will pave its roads into the last of the silence. Mother Earth weeps for its children. Frosty Wooldridge, six continent world bicycle traveler.
  5. Avatar for Hal Crawford
    Hal Crawford
    A number of comments here have demanded the retraction of point #5 on population. It is all too easy to see that the advances in agriculture and medicine over the past 300 years have caused an enormous growth spurt in population. What isn't so clear are the more recent (past 80 years) advances in birth control, technology and adjustments in culture that have caused populations to decline. If the United States didn't have immigration, its own population would be declining today. Europe's population, already experiencing a negative birth-rate, would be declining even faster if it weren't for immigration from the Middle East and Asia. It is not a fanciful assumption to say that as our third-world countries advance in technology and progress, those birth rates would decline as well. While we have a world population of some 7 billion people, that population could easily live in the state of Texas, leaving the rest of the world for farming or manufacturing. (http://www.simplyshrug.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=63:the-overpopulation-myth&catid=31:general&Itemid=50) Concerns about overcrowding on our own planet are clearly a myth, and any problems involving poverty or living space are political in nature, not technical.
  6. Avatar for Frosty Wooldridge
    Frosty Wooldridge
    In the 21st century, human overpopulation continues to be the most ignored, suppressed and avoided issue of our time. World leaders and religions dodge every discussion pertaining to its onslaught in the face of human struggles at epic levels. With our planet screaming its accelerating anguish via contaminated oceans, poisoned soils and polluted atmosphere---we indifferently add 80 million of ourselves annually and one billion more every 12 years. Our 7.3 billion numbers wreak havoc on the rest of the natural world as we cause extinction rates of other creatures at over 100 daily and hundreds of thousands by mid century. At some point, we face catastrophic climate destabilization, lack of water and arable land to grow food as well as loss of oil energy to drive our civilizations. When the final drivers descend on our species, Mother Nature won’t be kind or forgiving. Frosty Wooldridge, 6 continent world bicycle traveler
  7. Avatar for Randolph Femmer
    Randolph Femmer
    Author Scudellari's fifth topic above (re: population) should be retracted. As a first criticism: (1) The article's statement that the world's population is "now growing at just half the rate it was before 1965" is misleading at best: For example, in 1981 world population was 4.5 billion and growing larger by 80 million extra per year; by 2012 our numbers had grown to SEVEN billion and we were growing larger by 83 million extra per year; and now (2015) our numbers have been growing larger by 86 million extra per year. Our planet's biospheric life-support machinery (whose components are being obliterated by each of our added billions) have never taken a statistics course, so from their perspective, the numbers we have just cited qualify as further gigantic and non-stop growth, and are growing, right now, FASTER THAN EVER. (2) Despite the fact that the population section of the above article links to a graph in a 28 July 2010 article in Nature, the graph that Scudellari links-to does not BEGIN its data set until the 1970s and projects to 2050 based upon the hopes, wishes, assumptions, and guesstimates of its authors. (We note that in S-C-I-E-N-C-E however, it is not generally permissible to OMIT 9,900 years of data in order to force-fit one's data set into a more theoretically-desirable outcome.) In contrast, an ACTUAL REAL-WORLD graph of human population growth over the 10,000 years of civilization is an extreme and pronounced J-curve (downloadable image thereof is accessible at https://www.flickr.com/photos/pali_nalu/6611789641/in/photostream/lightbox/). (Did we mention that J-curve progressions exhibit a rather decided tendency to flatten and obliterate everything around themselves in every direction?) (3) We have just added FIVE additional billions to world population in less than one human lifetime, and current U.N. medium-and-high fertility projections show us on-track toward 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, or 16.6 billion by the end of this century - and anything even approaching such numbers constitutes the demographic and biospheric equivalent of a collision trajectory with a near-Earth asteroid. Sustainability literacy should include a full appreciation of the ENORMOUS size of each one of our avalanching billions. (A one-slide image of the enormity thereof is accessible at https://www.flickr.com/photos/pali_nalu/12880223364/in/photostream/lightbox/ as a hint, the answer is 38,461 years.) Nature should retract the population portion of the Scudellari article, and should recommend instead a required one-or-two week OCW survey that addresses Biospheric Literacy and Sustainability 101 for all first-year undergraduates of every major (for samples of such freely-downloadable resources see https://www.scribd.com/collections/3159879/Population-for-Academia-and-Policymakers ).
  8. Avatar for Randolph Femmer
    Randolph Femmer
    Responding here to a "Texas" assertion posted elsewhere above. It is common within assorted non-science silos of academia to proceed from various largely-instinctive assumptions that imagine or assume that planetary carrying capacities and humankind’s population limits must be largely or primarily-governed by various “running-out-of” suppositions such as "running-out-of" food, or water, or resources, or space, etc. (We have already seen some examples of these expressed both in the above article and in some of the posted comments - e.g. 'food' references in the article, and 'Texas' suppositions in comment posts.), Such "running-out-of" and "vast-amounts of open-space" suppositions, however, though largely-instinctive, tend to divert us from (or too-easily blind us to) OTHER equally-valid and decidedly dangerous real-world population limiting factors. (A) As one example there are the impacts, damages, ERADICATIONS, WASTES, and DISMANTLEMENTS that our sheer numbers are inflicting upon the only planetary life-support machinery so far known to exist anywhere in the universe. And (B): An under-appreciated understanding of classical studies in the biological literature that show quite powerfully that the mere presence of “vast amounts of open-space” DOES NOT mean that a population is "safe." In a separate post to follow below, for example, we will summarize THREE classical population studies (two in mammals and one in unicellular marine dinoflagellates) each of which populations underwent massive 99%-plus die-offs (and/or even worse mass mortalities) in seemingly-'empty' surroundings that remained roughly 99.998% UNOCCUPIED and which visually-appeared to remain almost completely 'empty.' ( To envision the "too-late" / "waited-too-long" conditions that marked the onset of their die-offs, imagine a circle roughly twice the diameter of a baseball on an otherwise empty basketball court.) (Similarly, an image summarizing all three of these classical real-world population calamities in environments that were roughly 2/1000ths of 1% occupied is accessible at https://www.flickr.com/photos/pali_nalu/8127657994/in/photostream/lightbox/ .)
  9. Avatar for Randolph Femmer
    Randolph Femmer
    We offer here three CLASSICAL real-world examples of massive 99%-plus population die-offs (and/or even worse mass mortalities), all three of which occurred in seemingly "vast open-space" surroundings that each remained roughly 99.998% unoccupied. ALL THREE real-world calamities began (or were already well-underway) in “vast open-space” conditions (roughly 99.998% unoccupied) that visually-appeared to remain ALMOST ENTIRELY ‘EMPTY.’ The data sets we reference involve routine outbreaks of dinoflagellate red-tide (e.g., Karenia brevis ) in marine environments (which induce environmental calamity by their release of wastes into their surroundings), and two separate and classical climb-and-collapse studies of mammalian populations (reindeer herds, Rangifer tarandus) on Alaskan islands (Scheffer 1951;and Klein 1968). All three offer disquieting testimony concerning humankind’s “vast open-space” suppositions. (A pdf summary and supporting mathematics of the three studies and their population / vast-open-space implications is accessible at http://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_510ee177e1e7478b8d532f1a4f4ef749.pdf ). In all three cases, by the time each population occupied roughly 2/1000ths of 1% of environmental surroundings, their numbers had already peaked and their catastrophic outcomes were about to begin or were already well-underway. Therefore, an especially powerful take-away implication of all three of these studies, their data sets, and their numbers is this: Given the visual appearance of such seemingly-vast 99.998% “unoccupied” and open-space conditions, it would be extraordinarily DIFFICULT for even the most intelligent, thoughtful, and scholarly members of a sentient species to imagine either the degree - or the proximity - of the imminent 99% die-offs and/or mass-mortalities that were about overtake them when such “vast amounts of open-space” appear to remain theoretically-available in their surrounding environments, or which were actually already underway. What all three of our classical examples therefore show quite powerfully is that if the scholars and leaders of such populations wait until the "vast-open-space" / "waited-too-long" conditions that we reference and here depict develop, they will have ALREADY WAITED TOO LONG. (If any of the populations were to avoid the calamitous outcomes that the image thresholds denote, their precautionary measures would have been required MUCH SOONER. (In addition, a one-slide image considering potential implications of real-world population explosions in marine systems is attached.) 1. Scheffer, V.B. 1951. The rise and fall of a reindeer herd. Scientific Monthly 73: 356-362. 2, Klein, D.R. 1968. The Introduction, Increase, and Crash of Reindeer on St. Matthew Island. Journal of Wildlife Management 32: 350-367. 3. Klein, D.R. 1959. Saint Matthew Island reindeer range study. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Spc. Sci. Rept.: Wildl. 43. 4. Bushaw-Newton, K.L. and Sellner, K.G. 1999. Harmful Algal Blooms IN: NOAA’s State of the Coast Report, Silver Spring, Md. NOAA. http://state-of-the-coast.noaa.gov/bulletins/html/hab_14/hab.html
  10. Avatar for Eric Brown
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    Eric Brown
    Bruno, see Cialdini's work on the principles of influence - http://www.amazon.com/Influence-Psychology-Persuasion-Robert-Cialdini/dp/006124189X. One of the principles he studies is "commitment and consistency", and he describes a kind of attachment stickiness that occurs once you make a choice, and it does talk specifically a little about how a commitment can be strengthened when confronted with an opposing viewpoint. And of course you can also find overviews of his principles just by googling around. By the way, understanding his "social proof" principle (also well described by other sociologists) is an excellent starting point for understanding human behavior in general, for instance, why myths described in the article persist and spread. I should add that this book and maybe a lot of his work is more qualitative than rigorously tested scientifically, but is nontheless very insightful
  11. Avatar for Steve Dutch
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    Steve Dutch
    There's this thing called Google, where you can enter the phrases in quotes and stand a very good chance of hitting the source. Or you can go to scholar.google.com and search scholarly literature.
  12. Avatar for Steve Dutch
    Steve Dutch
    #4: Where is it written that a person can have only one learning style? Aren't you better off learning to adapt to a multitude of styles in case you encounter a teacher who can't or won't modify his style, or a subject matter that doesn't lend itself to your preferred style? How does it help YOU to demand that everything be taught only in the style that makes you most comfortable? #5. There's enough to eat right now. So tell me, when exactly does it begin to pinch badly enough to start to cut population growth? When we're using 100% of the earth's productivity for our food? When 50% of species go extinct? 75%?
  13. Avatar for Maria Fotopoulos
    Maria Fotopoulos
    It's embarrassing to see factually incorrect information in a purported science journal! I refer to the section on overpopulation. If anyone should understand overpopulation -- and that Earth is overpopulated -- I'd think it would be scientists!
  14. Avatar for Frosty Wooldridge
    Frosty Wooldridge
    When you ride a bicycle at 12 miles per hour across six continents, from the Arctic to Antarctica and see what I saw, you get sick to your stomach. Over 10 million children starve to death annually in 2015. Another 8 million adults die of starvation and related diseases. According to the UN, 1,000 children die every day in India from dysentery and diarrhea--which I witnessed firsthand. Yet, India adds 16 million more people net gain annually. Some of the comments in this section blow me away at their total lack of comprehension as to what's really happening on this planet. Humans destroy every eco system they invade and the day accelerates toward us when Mother Nature simply creates the "Seventh Extinction Session of Humans." Frosty Wooldridge, 6 continent world bicycle traveler
  15. Avatar for David Guerra
    David Guerra
    The reference to overpopulation as a myth suffers from an enormous shortsightedness. The food issue is debatable since a large part of the world's population is poor and does not consume the optimum amount and variety of food. So, one can begin by thinking how things would be if all the food that is really necessary was being produced. And then, how it would be if all the goods which people would like to have but can't afford were being produced. This leads to the major error, which is to think of overpopulation as related only to the planet's ability to produce food. Overpopulation means for a system to have a higher population than would be desirable. When so many or even all of the problems we are facing globally are directly related to the number of people burning fossile fuels for example, or contributing to the burning of fossile fuels, how can one possibly deny that overpopulation is a fact??? When the planet is going through a global species extinction unlike anything that happened in the last millions of years, how can one possibly deny that this isn't directly related to the number of people in existance? Had Malthus's warnings been heeded and we would not be having to worry about these things. We could use the planet to provide all that we need to live in comfort and abundance without predating it. To see overpopulation as related only to food issues means precisely that. To see the planet as a resource which can be sucked dry, as if there wasn't such thing as a natural balance which will be damaged through this. As if the weather won't be disrupted by the burning of billions of tons of fossile fuels. As if the disappearance of species won't lead to a chain reaction which in the end, requires the use of more and more artificial means for everything, turning the planet into a giant factory where every inch of terrain must be used by us for something. This isn't a doomsday scenario, these are things we face every day. Just look at the news, hardly any disaster can't be connected to overpopulation, from conflicts over land and resources, from floods to which the populations are especially exposed because there is nowhere else for them to live. Or earthquakes happening from the flooding that is caused by huge dams, which in turn are necessary to provide electricity for domestic and industrial uses. There is an astounding shortsightedness, I would even say blindness, keeping people from recognizing overpopulation as a fact, and the most crucial problem, for which the current and future generations will pay the toll. Instead, what one hears are worries if the birth rates drop. The mindset is still the same as the one that led us to this situation. The concerns are economic ones, both for the rich and the poor, and in the meantime no one is thinking what would actually benefit the quality of life of those who will came after us and what population number would be optimal. If we were actually logical beings, we would plan the next generations by this standard, even if this meant only one or two children for couple for many decades.
  16. Avatar for Yvon Wang
    Yvon Wang
    This is a provocative article making several good points (Vol. 528, 2015 Dec 17, 322-325; URL http://www.nature.com/news/the-science-myths-that-will-not-die-1.19022). But as a historian of pornography and sexuality, I wonder about the use of a quotation lumping together sugar (pun intended), pornography, and television as representative things that people like but that are "not always good for you or right for you.” Critically minded, multidisciplinary pornography research (such as that published in the journal Porn Studies, Attwood & Smith eds.) has been profoundly hampered by the assumption that sexual representations must have some deleterious effect upon individuals. Talk about a myth that won't die!
  17. Avatar for Majid Ali
    Majid Ali
    Regarding the use of antioxidants in clinical medicine, the problem of antioxidants sold with deceptive claims is large and growing. The scientific studies documenting the negative effects of antioxidants have not stemmed the tide of large scale distortions. One aspect of the “anti-oxidant controversy” in the broader context of oxygen homeostasis, however, has not been duly considered. Oxygen is the organizing principle of human biology and governs the aging process. With these words, I opened my book, Oxygen and Aging (2000) to put forth oxygen theory of aging.(ref 1). In the context of aging, I recognized oxygen and its oxidative moieties as the “metabolic gas pedal” while antioxidants serve as the “metabolic brake pedal.” This view of aging integrates the free radical, protein cross-linking, and cellular proliferation theories of aging, and offers a broader unifying model that calls into question the putative health benefits of antioxidants when used without considering the larger issues of oxygen homeostasis. The major threats to oxygen homeostasis are related to immune-inflammatory disruptions related to altered states of gut ecology and consequential disruptions of gut microbiome. (ref 2-3). The matter of antioxidant support in clinical practice needs to be seen within the broader context of oxygen homeostasis, recognizing the primacy of oxystatic therapies over antioxidant supplements. The oxystatic (oxygen homeostatic) priorities are optimal food choices, spices, and self-regulation. In the hands of knowledgeable clinicians, the use of antioxidants (such as vitamins, glutathione, and others) is beneficial when integrated with measures to address matters of nutrition, environment, and stress. In 2004, I began my Oxygen Homeostasis column in the journal Townsend Letter. In these columns, I proposed oxygen models of inflammation, autoimmunity, asthma, obesity, hyperinsulinism, diabetes, cardiac myocytic disease, and cancer.(ref 4 for full citations). Most of these columns also included supportive long-term clinical outcome studies conducted by my colleagues and I. I presented oxygen models of various diseases in detail and discussed their clinical implications at length in Darwin and Dysox Triology, the 10th, 11th, and 12th volumes of The Principles and Practice of Integrative Medicine. (ref 2,3,5) These are unifying models that explain all aspects of the diseases—causes, clinical course, consequences, and control—on the basis of disturbed oxygen function. The most important among them are: (1) impaired or blocked oxygen signaling; (2) interrupted oxygen’s ATP energy generation; (3) diminished oxygen’s detergent functions; (4) interrupted oxygen’s cellular detox functions; (5) impeded oxygen-governed cellular repair mechanisms; and (5) oxygen-regulated cell membrane and matrix functions. These abnormalities usually begin in early life but may develop at any time during life. References: 1. Ali M. Oxygen and Aging (2000) 1st Ed. New York, Canary 21 Press. 2000 2. Ali M. The Principles and Practice of Integrative Medicine Volume XI: Darwin, Dysox, and Disease. 2000. 3rd. Edi. 2008. New York. (2009) Institute of Integrative Medicine Press..: 3. Ali M. The Principles and Practice of Integrative Medicine Volume XII: Darwin, Dysox, and Integrative Protocols. New York (2009). Institute of Integrative Medicine Press. 4 . Ali Oxygen Homeostasis – Townsend Columns http://alihealing.org/dr-alis-oxygen-columns-in-townsend-letter/ 5. Ali M. The Principles and Practice of Integrative Medicine Volume X: Darwin, Oxygen Homeostasis, and Oxystatic Therapies. 3 rd. Edi. (2009) New York. Institute of Integrative Medicine Press.
  18. Avatar for Alec Andre Schaerer
    Alec Andre Schaerer
    Unfortunately there are much more fundamental myths that shape science – and barely anybody notices them. One of them is that distinguishing, observing, describing or measuring is the sure-fire method for achieving secure knowledge. Under the spell of this myth one forgets the inevitably implied logical blind spot – that for example an observer can observe everything except his own act of observing, or that one can measure anything except the principle of measuring. Logicians discovered that the blind spot cannot be discovered from within the implied preconceptual and conceptual system: The system can’t allow seeing what it can’t allow seeing, and it can’t allow seeing that it can’t allow seeing what it can’t allow seeing – namely the paradox that the system, splitting up the universe between system and environment, must on the one hand be distinct from this distinction, while it must on the other hand exist within this distinction as part of the whole and hence as an object of investigation. In this paradoxical situation, observing other observers in their activity of observing can look helpful, but the blind spot can never be overcome, it can merely be shifted around. On the path of observing one can find many detail features and laws, but never the essential one that governs the strict totality of the setup. Morevover, most scientist tend to forget that what can be observed is already its own past, it is not real life but only its result. Indeed, life as such escapes science. Many acquiesce with what is accessible, seeking no more than mechanisms, and of course one can find many of them, but life is not merely a set of mechanisms. Yet one can believe that life is only a set of mechanisms – a widespread myth in science indeed. There are more such flaws, but the presented aspects should be sufficient for this discussion. Whoever is interested in a more thorough presentation – including an approach that does not have the flaw – might look here: http://edoc.unibas.ch/1421/
  19. Avatar for David Unger
    David Unger
    Sorry, but where are your references? You have nine total references with none of them supporting your claims in regards to food supply and population growth. If you are going to refute a 'myth' you need more evidence than an unreferenced discussion with someone who works in that field. The gist of your argument seems to be that there isnt a shortage because we need to share more. You have A) not shown any data to support this claim and B) based your argument on a seperate reality to the one we live in. Theoretically many things are possible but most of these are never going to happen, if we harvested 100% of the energy from the sun we would likely never need to use fossil fuels again for example but that is unlikely to happen in our lifetimes.
  20. Avatar for Larry Gilman
    Larry Gilman
    Also, my confidence in a mythbuster always when falters when I hit an obvious non sequitur. So let's say human population is not growing _exponentially_ -- just some oher way. If we cannot scale support systems indefinitely, how is "some doomsday scenario" so silly? If I keep driving towards a wall I will in general hit it eventually, whether I am accelerating toward it exponentially, or some other way, or not at all -- or even if I am decelerating but not fast enough. If Earth's carrying capacity is finite or diminishable, the analogy seems apt. Yet this article assumes that any non-exponential growth curve is inherently non-worrisome, and cites present non-overpopulation as proof that fears of _ever_ being overpopulated are inherently mythical. Both assumptions are indefensible. But how comforting if they were true! So while we're shaking our wise heads over the sad spectacle of motivated reasoning . . .
  21. Avatar for Larry Gilman
    Larry Gilman
    The population part of the article also dishes up a version of the Cry Wolf fallacy, i.e., the argument that if warnings of disaster have been made and not come true, we are safe from the predicted disaster. In the original fable, of course, a real wolf did show up -- after the villagers decided that there was no such thing.
  22. Avatar for Cian O Donnell
    Cian O Donnell
    I find it ironic that an article about busting scientific myths so easily bought in to the "clever myth" that there are actually 86 billion neurons in the human brain. The evidence for this number is extremely scant: one study, four subjects, ages 50-71, all male, an extreme extrapolation method, and (most importantly) included a standard deviation of +/- 8 billion! The range was 78-95 billion. So I would say old 100 billion number is still well within the ball park. Here is the study's abstract (Azevedo et al, 2009): http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19226510
  23. Avatar for liveoak
    liveoak
    We need to start understanding the biosphere as a complex system with many feedback loops and many parameters in a state of change due to our increasing numbers and the increasing demands we are placing on the system. Unfortunately, the reductionistic approach utilized in many fields of science makes it difficult to engage in systems thinking, to grasp the ways in which human population growth, the desire of many to move up a trophic level or two in their diets, intensive agriculture, deforestation, overfishing the oceans, climate change, et cetera are all interrelated and together are fraying of the web of Life on this planet. Human population growth seems to be the underlying driver of these changes; as pointed out in this discussion, had we not undergone the rapid population growth we exhibited during the twentieth century and stabilized somewhere around 2 billion, think how much smaller our problems would be today! But we still have it within our capacity, especially with the electronic communications we have today, to decide collectively to rein in our population growth (as well as our unnecessary consumption of so many things, encouraged by our fixation on that socially constructed symbol known as "money") dramatically, stop our finger-pointing and make the means of limiting family size available (and socially acceptable) to women all around the globe. If something is growing at a rate that is a percentage of the amount that is already there, it is growing exponentially. Even though our overall growth rate has declined over the last several decades, it is still a positive rate of growth; moreover, one of the references cited below this article gives a projection of hitting 12 billion by the end of this century, a grim prediction indeed if you understand the systemic effects of adding another 5 billion people. Joel Cohen has long played a role of trying to minimize our perception of the problems to be incurred by continuing population growth, but for him to deny that our population growth is now or ever has been "exponential" is misleading and downright irresponsible. This part of the "myths" article should be retracted and replaced by a sober assessment of our actual situation and how further population growth will affect the biosystem on which we all depend.
  24. Avatar for Ryan Gee
    Ryan Gee
    On the subject of things that hold us back from going forwards, imagine where we'd be if it wasn't all about the profit to be made. Instead of a new technology, we keep the old one because it's profitable or marketable, consumable instead of permanant, treatments instead of cures... money keeps us stuck in a loop. I wonder how many generations will pass before we realise that the generations before us used everything up from the Earth without putting back to the Earth, all just to put more numbers in the bank.
  25. Avatar for Patrick Elliott
    Patrick Elliott
    Its actually interesting with respect to anti-oxidants, that the man who first proposed the idea has since also done a case of "knocking out" the genes that produce any at all in the body (ass apposed to increasing them in some manner, as the experiments mentioned in the article do) - the result was that, in fact, a longer life span. However, the commentary about oxidation having an impact on the results from exercise... kind of confirms my own hypothesis on the subject - if you, as an animal, don't do much, you don't need anti-oxidants much. If you deal with stresses that require speed, or strength, then you may need anti-oxidants to offset the "increase" in oxidation during those stresses. I.e., its a sort of nasty equalibrium thing. A couch potato (i.e. a literal species of them) might not need the mechanism. But, humans do, because we do stupid things like running, or lifting weight. Yet, too much anti-oxidants and all that running and lifting won't make you stronger, or faster. As for the whole learning thing.. I imagine that "preference" does have some impact, in that being bored out of your skull doesn't help learning, but.. seems to me that the much older ideas is more sensible - the more ways you use, or see, the information presented, the more likely you are to retain it, regardless of "preferred method".
  26. Avatar for Costa Vakalopoulos
    Costa Vakalopoulos
    This started off as a well intentioned commentary on the limits say of screening in improving cancer prognosis but quickly descended into propogating other myths. The most obvious is that the connectome project will give us insight into the mind and or brain. I have only been looking at papers studying wiring from the last 50 years! Does a term and spin like connectome suddenly confer a magic they missed?
  27. Avatar for JEFF D. UPTON
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    JEFF D. UPTON
    Right on! Too many of these comments reflect the ideology that Homo sapiens is the only species that matters. Try asking tigers, wolves, polar bears and any amphibian what they think about overpopulation being a non-issue.
  28. Avatar for Jim Woodgett
    Jim Woodgett
    Disappointed there are no comments challenging the curt dismissal of homeopathy for the complete sham that it is! To commiserate, I'm going to get thoroughly inebriated by diluting a drop of beer 500,000 times (I won't dilute and drive though).
  29. Avatar for David Heath
    David Heath
    I believe, as you do, that homeopathy is totally bogus, but, like most people, you misunderstand it. The premise of homeopathy (and multiple dilutions) is to use what ails you as an antidote. Thus in your beer example, the effect of your treatment would be to cure the effects of beer, not to enhance them. Perhaps you've invented a hangover cure!
  30. Avatar for Bill B
    Bill B
    I think the writer of this piece got the learning styles argument slightly incorrect. The Pashler et al. study specifically dealt with the difference between a concept of learning style as a preference versus an actual difference in the effectiveness of a modality. For example, just giving people surveys and concluding that X person is a visual learner simply because he reports that he prefers that style does not really make him a visual learner. If learning styles existed, they would need to be established through a truly diagnostic instrument, independent of the individual's preference.
  31. Avatar for David Heath
    David Heath
    As a trainer, I'm endlessly flooded with learning style 'propaganda.' I believe none of it! There are however, two aspects which *do* have credence. Firstly, one should substitute "preferred learning style" with "preferred communication style." The whole topic instantly makes a lot more sense. Secondly, although learning styles do not exist from the perspective of the learner, they DO exist from the perspective of the task. As a very simple example, when was the last time a person became a fully competent bicycle rider after undergoing ONLY visual or auditory instruction?
  32. Avatar for Steven Franks
    Steven Franks
    Human population growth (#5) is not a myth! The global human population has been growing exponentially for many thousands of years, at least since the beginning of agriculture, and has doubled in just a few decades. It is true that the rate of growth has slowed recently, particularly in industrialized societies, but the size and growth of the human population remains an important concern. Just because much of the food we produce is used inefficiently and distributed inequitably does not mean that human population growth is not a problem. While it is also true that the fact of human population growth does not necessarily mean we are “doomed”, the same could be said of any other environmental issue, including climate change, extinctions, habitat fragmentation, and pollution. None of these other issues are considered “myths” in the scientific community. The fact of human population growth and its effects on the environment are an active area of scientific investigation and conservation concern, and do not belong in an article about scientific myths. Nor, for that matter, does a quote from someone at a conservative think tank. Human population growth is qualitatively different from the myths presented in this article, and its inclusion undermines the main ideas of the author. I highly recommend a retraction or clarification of this part of the article.
  33. Avatar for David Heath
    David Heath
    Take a look at the cited reference - this is the detailed chart referred to: http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100728/full/466546a/box/3.html Although it might be accused of 'cherry-picking' data, the curve (while almost certainly exponential) is trending flatter and will probably turn downwards in the second half of this century.
  34. Avatar for Dan Steele
    Dan Steele
    "Nor, for that matter, does a quote from someone at a conservative think tank." Perhaps you can cite that part of the Scientific Method that excludes conservatives?
  35. Avatar for JEFF D. UPTON
    JEFF D. UPTON
    I cannot, but I also strongly suspect that American conservative think tanks (an oxymoron if ever I heard one) have much ideology in common with the Tea Party ("the American Taliban").
  36. Avatar for Steven Franks
    Steven Franks
    Science should be done without a political agenda, and without starting with the conclusions. I don't think it would be appropriate to quote someone from either a conservative or liberal think tank about a supposed scientific myth. Scientists can and do of course hold political views, and should be able to express these views. But someone from an organization with a specific agenda to promote is not as likely to be an unbiased source of information about what is and is not a scientific myth.
  37. Avatar for David Heath
    David Heath
    But isn't that *exactly* the scientific method? To start with the conclusion. One generally starts with a conclusion (a 'hypothesis') and attempts to disprove it. When every attempt at disproval (is that even a word?) fails, then the hypothesis becomes 'accepted' and perhaps, after a lot more work, becomes a theory, but never a theorem. Alternately, the hypothesis is disproven and it is abandoned. The core tenet of all science is to disprove hypotheses. Those that cannot be disproven are the ones that gain credence.
  38. Avatar for Steve Dutch
    Steve Dutch
    A theory is any systematic body of thought on a subject. In Origin of Species, Darwin referred to his ideas as a Theory, even though evolution could hardly have been considered well accepted at that point. Histories of science refer to the Phlogiston Theory, so theories can even be wrong. And they need not be scientific at all, like Music Theory. Your usage is based on an attempt to make an end run around the old "evolution is only a theory" chestnut. It's both historically incorrect and intellectually dishonest.
  39. Avatar for Brendan Maher
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    Brendan Maher
    Vaccines: http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/early/2014/02/25/peds.2013-2365 Politics: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11109-010-9112-2#/page-1
  40. Avatar for Brendan Maher
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    Brendan Maher
    Jeremy, Thanks so much for your comment and reference to Lancet 2012 which found 20% relative risk reduction for women offered screening over the age of 50 (found here: http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2812%2961611-0/abstract). I agree that this is a complex issue, particularly for breast cancer. We were aware of this meta-analysis and others that have come to different conclusions and different recommendations about the age at which screening is appropriate. The Canadian trial was offered as an example, perhaps not the best, of the kinds of studies that have shown breast cancer screening to be without benefit. We note that screening for some cancers and in some risk groups is beneficial and advised, but a blanket statement that 'early detection saves lives' is neither true nor helpful.
  41. Avatar for JEFF D. UPTON
    JEFF D. UPTON
    About a year ago the New Eng. J. Med. said in an editorial something to the effect that the very nature of the on-going and (at times) exceedingly acrimonious debate over mammography screening was a reflection of the reality that it must be of very marginal benefit. In terms of cost-effectiveness, it is surely a waste of health monies that could be much better spent in many, many other areas of medicine and general health.
  42. Avatar for Jessie Lydia Henshaw
    Jessie Lydia Henshaw
    Identifying the natural forms of persistent scientific myths needs to be just the beginning. These are great observations but there are also considerably bigger myths that persist in science, that are very central to why our model of prosperity is destroying the earth, for one very glaring example. How we manage to repeatedly "do great harm" with our wonderfully proficient methods of "doing good" is something to study. As far as I can tell it leads eventually to the "original myth of science", that nature works like our theories. So assuming nature works like our theories we then get caught by the sneaky backdoor problem... that it's the theories we *like* that get ALL the funding. If you need help in following the trail further, let me know. It doesn't all fit in an online comment, but takes a practice of looking at things from all sides.
  43. Avatar for Chris Exley
    Chris Exley
    What about the most common of myths? If it is published in Nature then it must be right!!
  44. Avatar for David Gillikin
    David Gillikin
    It would be nice if all of this was properly cited. I am confused as to how "human population has not and is not growing exponentially" (myth 5). Joel Cohen clearly states in his 1995 Science paper (269:341-346) that population growth has been faster than exponential. The statement here does not suggest this to be the case; it is misleading. I do agree it is no longer exponential, but it certainly has been in the past. Nevertheless, the doomsday has already happened - we have trashed the planet Too bad we can't survive on cereal alone!
  45. Avatar for Nitin Gandhi
    Nitin Gandhi
    Myth#6 May be in future we also may have to re-think whether the (mis)-deeds of humans is responsible for global climate change and global warming?
  46. Avatar for Douglas Borsom
    Douglas Borsom
    Re: Myth 5 -- Yes, exponential growth of human population is bogus and warrants debunking. But the rest of what is written under Myth 5 is an exercise in wishful thinking, ignoring experience and human nature. Sure, we can feed and hydrate billions more. The developed world just needs to get by with less and the developing world needs to give up its aspirations. And we all have to conserve at an unprecedented level, performing this tightrope act without a net. Good luck with that. In the mean time, meat consumption in the developing world is going in the opposite direction. The Nature article linked to below predicts 12 billion in 2100. Cohen and Eberstadt may not think that's a problem, but their great-grandchildren will. http://www.nature.com/news/world-population-unlikely-to-stop-growing-this-century-1.15956
  47. Avatar for Brendan Maher
    Brendan Maher
    As the editor of this piece, I'm glad that people are calling attention to this particular myth. I don't think you are disagreeing with what the piece says in any way. The problem is with the way that the myth is often being used to frame the problem as one requiring population control (or worse arguing against humanitarian efforts) rather than requiring better distribution of resources. The 'carrying capacity' of the earth (ugly term) is not some fixed finite value, but one that shifts with human behaviour and ingenuity. Birth rates are going down throughout most of the world and that decline tracks very closely with education, prosperity and social justice.
  48. Avatar for Brian Sanderson
    Brian Sanderson
    Meanwhile most politician's and economists promote more population and more consumption. Carrying capacity is not an "ugly term". It is a simple model that us useful within it's proper scientific context --- just as Newtonian Mechanics is useful in its proper context. The value of a scientific model has nothing to do with whether or not you find it emotionally appealing.
  49. Avatar for Frosty Wooldridge
    Frosty Wooldridge
    The Obvious Remains Obvious: But Avoided By Frosty Wooldridge Astute scientific minds worldwide scream at citizens, leaders and religious institutions as to the accelerating direction of the human race: stampeding over a demographic cliff. No matter how many news broadcasts showing wars for water, resources, land and energy—humans race toward their moribund destinies. No matter how many aberrant mega-storms caused by warming oceans—humans add another 50 million autos to the world highways annually. No matter the facts about oil exhaustion in this century—humans thrive on their own denial of reality. Yet, those same leaders, citizens and religions avoid, suppress any mention of the root cause of the “human misery index.” In our mega-cities, we might call it the “human crazy-stress index.”One writer said, “Humans may be the cleverest species on the Earth, but they also hold the distinction of being the dumbest and most arrogant in the face of reality.” Nobel Laureate Dr. Henry W. Kendall said, “If we don’t halt population growth with justice and compassion, it will be done for us by nature, brutally and without pity – and will leave a ravaged world.” When we see the United Nations document that 10 million children and 8 million adults die of starvation and starvation related diseases annually---why does the bulk of humanity continue on its accelerated birthrate path of an added 80 million, net gain, annually? Why do humans, already experiencing horrific consequences as to compacted cities, air pollution, gridlock and water contamination feel it’s their right to propagate until the “Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse” charge down their throats? Humans stare down reality as if it won’t affect them. They don’t mind injecting into the air, land and water 70,000 chemicals 24/7. They dump billions of tons of fossil fuel waste into the biosphere 24/7, now at over 400 parts per million for the first time in several million years. They encroach on habitat which drives the “Sixth Extinction Session” that kills 100 species off the planet 24/7. While humanity’s race to kill off the other creatures off the planet, it seems, (we seem), to think we’re immune to any consequences. John Muir said, “When you pick up a rock, you realize that it’s connected to everything else in the universe.”That’s means us, too. We, (you), need to create a national discussion around the world as to quality of life, standard of living, literacy, birth control and the future of humanity as to a stable and sustainable worldwide population. The sooner the better. Otherwise, the “Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse” will do it for us. Frosty Wooldridge, six continent world bicycle traveler
  50. Avatar for Dan Steele
    Dan Steele
    Further, those concerned about the 'carrying capacity' of the Earth need to get their heads out of the sand and look up. We won't exceed the 'carrying capacity' of the Solar System for a couple of millennia.

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