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Published online 9 June 2006 | Nature | doi:10.1038/news060605-10

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Football statisticians take on the bookies

Computer models outperform human tipsters, but can't guarantee riches.

On 4 July 2004, 57 minutes into the final of the European Football Championship in Lisbon, Greek striker Angelos Charisteas headed in a goal that was to win the tournament for his country.

It was one of the biggest upsets in international football.

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