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Published online 18 February 2005 | Nature | doi:10.1038/news050214-20

Column

Don't panic, it might never happen

A mathematical study of terrorist attacks need not leave us fearing the worst, says Philip Ball.

Statistically speaking, it seems that things can only get worse. A study of the statistics of global terrorism concludes that attacks will become more severe in the future, and that an attack that kills as many people as the destruction of the World Trade Center on 11 September 2001 is likely within the next seven years1.

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