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Published online 14 May 2003 | Nature | doi:10.1038/news030512-6

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Global warming's local crop impacts forecast

New climate model suggests the devil is in the variability.

A new technique that can estimate local weather patterns 50 years from now could help poorer countries to prepare for shifts in agricultural productivity.

"We hope to get to the point where, at the household level, we can decide which crops and livestock are most suitable for future climatic conditions," says economist Phillip Thornton of the International Livestock Research Institute in Nairobi, Kenya.

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