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Published online 15 August 2001 | Nature | doi:10.1038/news010816-12
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Hard times ahead
Depressions caused by loss of economic confidence might be predictable.
A new model of economic fluctuations suggests that a global recession is indeed imminent - probably worse than that of 1990-91 - and that forecasters should have spotted it a year ago1.
Depressions in the US economy become a near-inevitability at least a year before they happen, says Elliott Middleton of Placemark Investments in Dallas, Texas.
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