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  1. Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization

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    CMIP5 simulations reveal that the frequency of extreme El Niño events doubles under the 1.5 °C Paris target, and continues to increase long after global temperatures stabilize due to emission reductions. Extreme La Niña events, however, see little change at either 1.5° or 2 °C warming.

  2. Global risk of deadly heat

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    Climatic conditions that challenge human thermoregulatory capacity currently affect around a quarter of the world’s population annually. Such conditions are projected to increase in line with CO2 emissions particularly in the humid tropics.

  3. Forest disturbances under climate change

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    Changes in forest disturbance are likely to be greatest in coniferous forests and the boreal biome, according to a review of global climate change effects on biotic and abiotic forest disturbance agents and their interactions.

  4. Small-island communities in the Philippines prefer local measures to relocation in response to sea-level rise

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    It is often assumed that increased flooding due to sea-level rise will lead to mass migration. However, this study shows that residents of island communities in the Philippines prefer to implement local adaptation measures in response to frequent severe flooding rather than relocate.

  5. Global patterns in mangrove soil carbon stocks and losses

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    This research presents global baseline estimates of mangrove soil C stocks enabling countries to begin to assess their mangrove soil C stocks and the emissions that might arise from mangrove deforestation.

  6. Climate dynamics: Land warming revives monsoon

    A weakening land–ocean temperature difference, owing to a rapidly warming Indian Ocean, has seen the Indian monsoon trending downward since the 1950s. New research gives hope for a revival in monsoon rainfall as land warming catches up with, and exceeds, ocean warming.
  7. Limited contribution of permafrost carbon to methane release from thawing peatlands

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    Methane fluxes from thawing peatlands in northern Canada were derived predominantly from anaerobic decomposition of recent vegetation rather than from previously frozen material — as is typically assumed.

  8. Money for climate

    A judicious use of financial instruments today could protect the well-being of future societies but investment and ambition needs to rapidly increase to achieve this outcome.
  9. Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

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    Significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land use and the carbon cycle are identified for the twenty-first century when climate impacts on land are factored into climate projections so as to allow for two-way interactions between human and Earth systems.

  10. Greening of the Earth and its drivers

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    Satellite records combined with global ecosystem models show a persistent and widespread greening over 25–50% of the global vegetated area; less than 4% of the globe is browning. CO2 fertilization explains 70% of the observed greening trend.