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Showing: 1–25 of 50

  1. Global risk of deadly heat

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    Climatic conditions that challenge human thermoregulatory capacity currently affect around a quarter of the world’s population annually. Such conditions are projected to increase in line with CO2 emissions particularly in the humid tropics.

  2. Forest disturbances under climate change

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    Changes in forest disturbance are likely to be greatest in coniferous forests and the boreal biome, according to a review of global climate change effects on biotic and abiotic forest disturbance agents and their interactions.

  3. Assessing species vulnerability to climate change

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    Several approaches are used to assess species’ vulnerability to climate change. Identifying the strengths and weaknesses of such methods should help conservationists minimize biodiversity losses.

  4. Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

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    Significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land use and the carbon cycle are identified for the twenty-first century when climate impacts on land are factored into climate projections so as to allow for two-way interactions between human and Earth systems.

  5. Climate mitigation from vegetation biophysical feedbacks during the past three decades

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    Greening—increasing leaf area index—affects regional climate in a number of contradictory ways. The net global effect is now revealed to be cooling that has offset the equivalent of 12% of global land-surface warming over the past 30 years.

  6. Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates

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    The signal to noise ratio of temperature change can be used to determine exposure to unusual, unfamiliar and unknown climates. For large groups of the world’s population, mitigation can delay the onset of unfamiliar or unknown climates by several decades.

  7. Amplification of wildfire area burnt by hydrological drought in the humid tropics

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    Predictions of fire-burnt areas are typically based on climate data. Including hydrological processes in models improves projections of burnt area in Borneo, with large wildfires clustered in years of hydrological drought associated with strong El Niño events.

  8. Greening of the Earth and its drivers

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    Satellite records combined with global ecosystem models show a persistent and widespread greening over 25–50% of the global vegetated area; less than 4% of the globe is browning. CO2 fertilization explains 70% of the observed greening trend.

  9. Hydroclimate: Understanding rainfall extremes

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    Warming induced by greenhouse gases will increase the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, causing heavier rainfall events. Changing atmospheric circulation dynamics are now shown to either amplify or weaken regional increases, contributing to uncertainty in future precipitation extremes.
  10. Better out than in

    Continued US membership in the Paris Agreement on climate would be symbolic and have no effect on US emissions. Instead, it would reveal the weaknesses of the agreement, prevent new opportunities from emerging, and gift greater leverage to a recalcitrant administration.
  11. Weakening temperature control on the interannual variations of spring carbon uptake across northern lands

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    Atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements at Barrow, Alaska, together with coupled atmospheric transport and terrestrial ecosystem models show a declining spring net primary productivity response to temperature at high latitudes.

  12. A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation

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    A comprehensive summary of studies that simulate climate change impacts on agriculture are now reported in a meta-analysis. Findings suggest that, without measures to adapt to changing conditions, aggregate yield losses should be expected for wheat, rice and maize in temperate and tropical growing regions even under relatively moderate levels of local warming.

  13. A road map for global environmental assessments

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    Increasing demand for solution-oriented environmental assessments brings significant opportunities and challenges at the science–policy–society interface. Solution-oriented assessments should enable inclusive deliberative learning processes about policy alternatives and their practical consequences.