Areas are land and ocean, land, and land 20°–90°, see Supplementary Information. The thick black line shows the corresponding rate of change of Northern Hemisphere temperature from the HADCRU4 data set13. Trends are linear fits ending at the year shown. Note that the proxy and historical records over the twentieth century are generally not independent, because proxy records are often calibrated to the historical temperature record. Global rates of change are about 20% smaller than Northern Hemisphere land + ocean rates of change in the CMIP5 archive (Supplementary Section 3.4).