Abstract
Throughout much of the Quaternary Period, inhospitable environmental conditions above the Arctic Circle have been a formidable barrier separating most marine organisms in the North Atlantic from those in the North Pacific1,2. Rapid warming has begun to lift this barrier3, potentially facilitating the interchange of marine biota between the two seas4. Here, we forecast the potential northward progression of 515 fish species following climate change, and report the rate of potential species interchange between the Atlantic and the Pacific via the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage. For this, we projected niche-based models under climate change scenarios and simulated the spread of species through the passages when climatic conditions became suitable. Results reveal a complex range of responses during this century, and accelerated interchange after 2050. By 2100 up to 41 species could enter the Pacific and 44 species could enter the Atlantic, via one or both passages. Consistent with historical and recent biodiversity interchanges5,6, this exchange of fish species may trigger changes for biodiversity and food webs in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, with ecological and economic consequences to ecosystems that at present contribute 39% to global marine fish landings.
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Acknowledgements
The study was carried out with financial support from the Danish Agency for Science, Technology and Innovation as part of the Greenland Climate Research Centre. Support was provided by NACLIM (EU-FP7 GA n.308299), the NAACOS project (DK) to S.M.O., the Canada Excellence Research Chair, and is a contribution to the Arctic Science Partnership. We thank J. Oakley, K. Steenken and E. Shanley-Roberts for improving the manuscript.
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M.S.W. conceived the initial idea and designed the study with the entire co-author team. P.G., R.B.H., P.R.M., L.P. and M.S.W. gathered data on fish distribution and traits. All taxonomic affiliations were confirmed by Arctic fish taxonomist P.R.M. O.B. ran the niche-based models and analyses of sensitivity, with conceptual help from A.G. P.G. and L.P. ran the functional analyses, while P.R.M. led the compilation of historical evidence. S.M.O. and D.S. (polar oceanographers) and M.S.W. provided oceanographic and environmental data. All co-authors contributed to the text and interpretation of the results.
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Wisz, M., Broennimann, O., Grønkjær, P. et al. Arctic warming will promote Atlantic–Pacific fish interchange. Nature Clim Change 5, 261–265 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2500
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2500
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