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Agricultural Impacts

Robust uncertainty

An up-to-date synthesis of climate change impacts on crop yields shows that the bounds of uncertainty are increasing. So why do estimates of the effect of climate change on crop productivity differ so much?

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Figure 1: Schematic illustration of the relationship between total uncertainty, projected ranges of relative yield changes and best fits of aggregate yield changes.

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Correspondence to Reimund P. Rötter.

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Rötter, R. Robust uncertainty. Nature Clim Change 4, 251–252 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2181

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