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Global disparity in the ecological benefits of reducing carbon emissions for coral reefs

Nature Climate Change volume 4, pages 1090–1094 (2014)Cite this article

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Abstract

Even if carbon emissions are reduced drastically in the next decade the amount of carbon already stored in the atmosphere would lead to the occurrence of extreme thermal events every three to four years between 2040 and 20801,2. This time lag on the effect of reducing emissions suggests that the benefits of carbon emission reduction on the health of coral reefs will be noticeable only in the long term2,3,4. Here, we use a spatially explicit ecosystem model to compare the potential ecosystem benefits that Caribbean and Pacific reefs could gain from reductions in carbon emissions, and the timescale of these benefits. We found that whereas the effect of a reduction in emissions on Caribbean reefs will be modest and realized only in the long term (more than 60 years), Pacific reefs would start to show benefits within the first half of this century. Moreover, it seems that Pacific reefs have the potential to maintain their ecological integrity and ecosystem state in the mid- to long term if carbon emissions are reduced, but only if plate-like corals are present.

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Figure 1: Life history parameters of Pacific coral ‘species’.
Figure 2: Model validation.
Figure 3: Trajectory of coral cover under different climate change scenarios.
Figure 4: Relative contribution of each coral type to total coral cover.

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Acknowledgements

This study was supported by an Australian Research Council Laureate Fellowship and a National Environmental Research Program grant to P.J.M. that also supported N.H.W. GBR coral trajectory data provided by the Long-Term Monitoring Program of the Australian Institute for Marine Science.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Marine Spatial Ecology Lab, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia

    Juan Carlos Ortiz, Yves-Marie Bozec, Nicholas H. Wolff, Christopher Doropoulos & Peter J. Mumby

  2. ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, The University of Queensland, Brisbane St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia

    Juan Carlos Ortiz, Yves-Marie Bozec, Nicholas H. Wolff, Christopher Doropoulos & Peter J. Mumby

Authors
  1. Juan Carlos Ortiz
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  2. Yves-Marie Bozec
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  3. Nicholas H. Wolff
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  4. Christopher Doropoulos
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  5. Peter J. Mumby
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Contributions

J.C.O. designed the study, analysed the data and wrote the manuscript; Y-M.B. assisted in writing the model code, assisted in analysing the data and edited the manuscript; N.H.W. processed the empirical data for the validation, processed the GBR climate change scenarios data and assisted in writing the manuscript; C.D. provided empirical data for the parameterization of the Pacific model and edited the manuscript; P.J.M. conceived and helped design the study and co-authored the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Juan Carlos Ortiz.

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Ortiz, J., Bozec, YM., Wolff, N. et al. Global disparity in the ecological benefits of reducing carbon emissions for coral reefs. Nature Clim Change 4, 1090–1094 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2439

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