Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Letter
  • Published:

Modelled glacier response to centennial temperature and precipitation trends on the Antarctic Peninsula

Nature Climate Change volume 4, pages 993–998 (2014)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

The northern Antarctic Peninsula is currently undergoing rapid atmospheric warming1. Increased glacier-surface melt during the twentieth century2,3 has contributed to ice-shelf collapse and the widespread acceleration4, thinning and recession5 of glaciers. Therefore, glaciers peripheral to the Antarctic Ice Sheet currently make a large contribution to eustatic sea-level rise6,7, but future melting may be offset by increased precipitation8. Here we assess glacier–climate relationships both during the past and into the future, using ice-core and geological data and glacier and climate numerical model simulations. Focusing on Glacier IJR45 on James Ross Island, northeast Antarctic Peninsula, our modelling experiments show that this representative glacier is most sensitive to temperature change, not precipitation change. We determine that its most recent expansion occurred during the late Holocene ‘Little Ice Age’ and not during the warmer mid-Holocene, as previously proposed9. Simulations using a range of future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate scenarios indicate that future increases in precipitation are unlikely to offset atmospheric-warming-induced melt of peripheral Antarctic Peninsula glaciers.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Study context.
Figure 2: Response-time and sensitivity test results.
Figure 3: Temperature and precipitation sensitivity experiments.
Figure 4: Holocene and future simulations of glacier length.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Turner, J. et al. Antarctic climate change during the last 50 years. Int. J. Climatol. 25, 279–294 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Barrand, N. E. et al. Trends in Antarctic Peninsula surface melting conditions from observations and regional climate modeling. J. Geophys. Res. 118, 315–330 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Abram, N. J. et al. Acceleration of snow melt in an Antarctic Peninsula ice core during the twentieth century. Nature Geosci. 6, 404–411 (2013).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  4. Pritchard, H. D. & Vaughan, D. G. Widespread acceleration of tidewater glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. J. Geophys. Res. 112, 01–10 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Cook, A. J., Fox, A. J., Vaughan, D. G. & Ferrigno, J. G. Retreating glacier fronts on the Antarctic Peninsula over the past half-century. Science 308, 541–544 (2005).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  6. Hock, R., de Woul, M., Radic, V. & Dyurgerov, M. Mountain glaciers and ice caps around Antarctica make a large sea-level rise contribution. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L07501 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Gardner, A. S. et al. A reconciled estimate of glacier contributions to sea level rise: 2003 to 2009. Science 340, 852–857 (2013).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  8. Uotila, P., Lynch, A. H., Cassano, J. J. & Cullather, R. I. Changes in Antarctic net precipitation in the 21st century based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) model scenarios. J. Geophys. Res. 112, D10107 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Hjort, C., Ingólfsson, Ó., Möller, P. & Lirio, J. M. Holocene glacial history and sea-level changes on James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula. J. Quat. Sci. 12, 259–273 (1997).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Meier, M. F. et al. Glaciers dominate eustatic sea-level rise in the 21st century. Science 317, 1064–1067 (2007).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  11. Radic, V. & Hock, R. Regionally differentiated contribution of mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea-level rise. Nature Geosci. 4, 91–94 (2011).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  12. Thomas, E. R., Marshall, G. J. & McConnell, J. R. A doubling in snow accumulation in the western Antarctic Peninsula since 1850. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L01706 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Turner, J., Lachlan-Cope, T., Colwell, S. & Marshall, G. J. A positive trend in western Antarctic Peninsula precipitation over the last 50 years reflecting regional and Antarctic-wide atmospheric circulation changes. Ann. Glaciol. 41, 85–91 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Krinner, G., Magand, O., Simmonds, I., Genthon, C. & Dufresne, J. L. Simulated Antarctic precipitation and surface mass balance at the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Clim. Dynam. 28, 215–230 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Barrand, N. E. et al. Computing the volume response of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet to warming scenarios to 2200. J. Glaciol. 59, 397–409 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Ligtenberg, S. R. M., van de Berg, W. J., van den Broeke, M. R., Rae, J. G. L. & van Meijgaard, E. Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model. Clim. Dynam. 41, 867–884 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Glasser, N. F. et al. Ice-stream initiation, duration and thinning on James Ross Island, northern Antarctic Peninsula. Quat. Sci. Rev. 86, 78–88 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Davies, B. J. et al. in Antarctic Palaeoenvironments and Earth-Surface Processes (eds Hambrey, M. J. et al.) 353–395 Vol. 381 (Geol. Soc., 2013).

    Google Scholar 

  19. Johnson, J. S., Bentley, M. J., Roberts, S. J., Binney, S. A. & Freeman, S. P. H. T. Holocene deglacial history of the north east Antarctic Peninsula—a review and new chronological constraints. Quat. Sci. Rev. 30, 3791–3802 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Mulvaney, R. et al. Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice-shelf history. Nature 489, 141–144 (2012).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  21. Davies, B. J., Carrivick, J. L., Glasser, N. F., Hambrey, M. J. & Smellie, J. L. Variable glacier response to atmospheric warming, northern Antarctic Peninsula, 1988–2009. Cryosphere 6, 1031–1048 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Pudsey, C. J., Murray, J. W., Appleby, P. & Evans, J. Ice shelf history from petrographic and foraminiferal evidence, Northeast Antarctic Peninsula. Quat. Sci. Rev. 25, 2357–2379 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Engel, Z., Nývlt, D. & Láska, K. Ice thickness, areal and volumetric changes of Davies Dome and Whisky Glacier in 1979–2006 (James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula). J. Glaciol. 58, 904–914 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Golledge, N., Hubbard, A. & Bradwell, T. Influence of seasonality on glacier mass balance, and implications for palaeoclimate reconstructions. Clim. Dynam. 35, 757–770 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Huybrechts, P. Sea-level changes at the LGM from ice-dynamic reconstructions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets during the glacial cycles. Quat. Sci. Rev. 21, 203–231 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Hall, B. L. Holocene glacial history of Antarctica and the sub-Antarctic islands. Quat. Sci. Rev. 28, 2213–2230 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Bentley, M. J. et al. Mechanisms of Holocene palaeoenvironmental change in the Antarctic Peninsula region. Holocene 19, 51–69 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Nývlt, D. & Šerák, L. James Ross Island—Northern Part. Topographic Map 1:25 000 (Geological Survey, 2009).

  29. Björck, S. et al. Late Holocene palaeoclimatic records from lake sediments on James Ross Island, Antarctica. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol. 121, 195–220 (1996).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Golledge, N. R. & Levy, R. H. Geometry and dynamics of an East Antarctic Ice Sheet outlet glacier, under past and present climates. J. Geophys. Res. 116, F03025 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) under the Antarctic Funding Initiative grant (NE/F012942/1), awarded to N.F.G. and M.J.H., and a SCAR (Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research) Fellowship awarded to B.J.D. to visit the Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington. Transport logistics and fieldwork on James Ross Island were supported by the British Antarctic Survey, and we thank the captain and crew of the RRS Ernest Shackleton and the RRS James Clark Ross for their support. We thank A. Hill for his field logistical support. We thank the Czech Geological Survey for providing topographical and glaciological data. N. Abram provided a thinning and ice-flow-corrected ice-core accumulation record from the 2007 James Ross Island ice core (AD 1807–2007). We also acknowledge the Netherlands Polar Program of NWO/ALW and the ice2sea project, funded by the European Commission’s 7th Framework Programme through grant number 226375, ice2sea manuscript number 174.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Bethan J. Davies

    Present address: Present address: Centre for Quaternary Research, Department of Geography, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham TW20 0EX, UK.,

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, Centre for Glaciology, Aberystwyth University, Penglais Campus, Aberystwyth SY23 3DB, UK

    Bethan J. Davies, Neil F. Glasser & Michael J. Hambrey

  2. Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington 6140, New Zealand

    Bethan J. Davies & Nicholas R. Golledge

  3. GNS Science, Avalon, Lower Hutt 5011, New Zealand

    Nicholas R. Golledge

  4. School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK

    Jonathan L. Carrivick

  5. IMAU, Utrecht University, 3584 CC Utrecht, The Netherlands

    Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg & Michiel R. van den Broeke

  6. School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK

    Nicholas E. Barrand

  7. Department of Geology, University of Leicester, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK

    John L. Smellie

Authors
  1. Bethan J. Davies
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Nicholas R. Golledge
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Neil F. Glasser
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Jonathan L. Carrivick
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Nicholas E. Barrand
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Michiel R. van den Broeke
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Michael J. Hambrey
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. John L. Smellie
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

B.J.D. conducted fieldwork, planned and undertook the modelling, and led the writing and the compilation of the graphics and tables. N.R.G. wrote the flowline model and contributed to the modelling effort. N.F.G. conducted fieldwork and designed the original field-based project. J.L.C. contributed to the original field-based project design and the fieldwork. M.J.H. and J.L.S. contributed to the original project design. N.E.B., S.R.M.L. and M.R.v.d.B. provided projections of future climate around the Antarctic Peninsula. All authors contributed to the writing of the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Bethan J. Davies.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Davies, B., Golledge, N., Glasser, N. et al. Modelled glacier response to centennial temperature and precipitation trends on the Antarctic Peninsula. Nature Clim Change 4, 993–998 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2369

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2369

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing