Ecol. Lett. http://doi.org/ndr (2013)

Genetic diversity is an important determinant of species persistence and adaptive capacity in the face of environmental change, but it is often overlooked in studies of the impacts of climate change. One way to investigate the potential influence of future climate on patterns of genetic variability is by analysing how past climatic changes and migration barriers have shaped the current distribution of genetic variation in a species.

This is the approach taken by Orly Razgour from the University of Bristol, UK, and co-workers, who investigate genetic diversity in a European bat (Plecotus austriacus) using a combination of ecological niche modelling, genetic data and model-based inference of demographic history.

They find that southerly glacial refugia populations now contain disproportionately high genetic diversity. Unfortunately, niche conservatism (the tendency of species to track a specific set of climatic conditions), together with shifts in suitable habitat and barriers to migration, may predispose the species to loss of significant genetic diversity from these southerly populations, which are also the most immediately threatened by thermal range-contraction.