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Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes

Abstract

Many climatic extremes are changing1,2,3,4,5, and decision-makers express a strong need for reliable information on further changes over the coming decades as a basis for adaptation strategies. Here, we demonstrate that for extremes stakeholders will have to deal with large irreducible uncertainties on local to regional scales as a result of internal variability, even if climate models improve rapidly. A multimember initial condition ensemble carried out with an Earth system model shows that trends towards more intense hot and less intense cold extremes may be masked or even reversed locally for the coming three to five decades even if greenhouse gas emissions rapidly increase. Likewise, despite a long-term trend towards more intense precipitation and longer dry spells, multidecadal trends of opposite sign cannot be excluded over many land points. However, extremes may dramatically change at a rate much larger than anticipated from the long-term signal. Despite these large irreducible uncertainties on the local scale, projections are remarkably consistent from an aggregated spatial probability perspective. Models agree that within only three decades about half of the land fraction will see significantly more intense hot extremes. We show that even in the short term the land fraction experiencing more intense precipitation events is larger than expected from internal variability. The proposed perspective yields valuable information for decision-makers and stakeholders at the international level.

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Figure 1: Changes in extremes by the mid-twenty-first century.
Figure 2: Uncertainties in projected trends of extremes.
Figure 3: Spatial distribution of changes in hot and cold extremes.
Figure 4: Spatial distribution of changes in dry spell length and heavy precipitation intensity.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation.

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E.M.F. carried out the analysis of the models, U.B. carried out the model experiment. All authors contributed extensively to the idea and the writing of this paper.

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Correspondence to E. M. Fischer.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Fischer, E., Beyerle, U. & Knutti, R. Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes. Nature Clim Change 3, 1033–1038 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2051

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