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Attributing mortality from extreme temperatures to climate change in Stockholm, Sweden

Nature Climate Change volume 3, pages 1050–1054 (2013)Cite this article

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A Corrigendum to this article was published on 30 July 2014

This article has been updated

Abstract

A changing climate is increasing the frequency, intensity, duration and spatial extent of heat waves. These changes are associated with increased human mortality during heat extremes. At the other end of the temperature scale, it has been widely speculated that cold-related mortality could decrease in a warmer world. We aim to answer a key question; the extent to which mortality due to temperature extremes in Stockholm, Sweden during 1980–2009 can be attributed to climate change that has occurred since our reference period (1900–1929). Mortality from heat extremes in 1980–2009 was double what would have occurred without climate change. Although temperature shifted towards warmer temperatures in the winter season, cold extremes occurred more frequently, contributing to a small increase of mortality during the winter months. No evidence was found for adaptation over 1980–2009.

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Figure 1: Temperature distribution of 26-day moving average of mean temperatures during winter months.
Figure 2: Temperature distribution of 2-day moving average of mean temperatures during summer months.
Figure 3: Number of cold/heat extremes per decade 1900–2009.
Figure 4: Mortality related to temperature extremes for 1980–2009.

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Change history

  • 23 June 2014

    In the version of this Article originally published, the stated number of heat extremes during the period 1980-2009 should have read 378. This was the value used when attributing the number of deaths due to extreme heat. This error has now been corrected in the HTML and PDF versions of the Article.

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Acknowledgements

D.O.Å. would like to acknowledge the Umeå SIMSAM network for a travel grant.

D.O.Å. is a Ph.D. candidate financially supported by a grant from The Swedish Council for Working Life and Social Research (FAS:2009-0454) awarded to B.F.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden

    Daniel Oudin Åström, Bertil Forsberg & Kristie L. Ebi

  2. Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Division of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden

    Joacim Rocklöv

Authors
  1. Daniel Oudin Åström
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  2. Bertil Forsberg
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  4. Joacim Rocklöv
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Contributions

D.O.Å. and J.R. conceived and designed the study. D.O.Å. collected and analysed the data and wrote the first version of the manuscript. B.F., K.L.E. and J.R. helped interpret data and results and write the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Daniel Oudin Åström.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Oudin Åström, D., Forsberg, B., Ebi, K. et al. Attributing mortality from extreme temperatures to climate change in Stockholm, Sweden. Nature Clim Change 3, 1050–1054 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2022

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