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Anthropogenic influence on multidecadal changes in reconstructed global evapotranspiration

Nature Climate Change volume 3, pages 59–62 (2013)Cite this article

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Abstract

Global warming is expected to intensify the global hydrological cycle1, with an increase of both evapotranspiration (EVT) and precipitation. Yet, the magnitude and spatial distribution of this global and annual mean response remains highly uncertain2. Better constraining land EVT in twenty-first-century climate scenarios is critical for predicting changes in surface climate, including heatwaves3 and droughts4, evaluating impacts on ecosystems and water resources5, and designing adaptation policies. Continental scale EVT changes may already be underway6,7, but have never been attributed to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. Here we provide global gridded estimates of annual EVT and demonstrate that the latitudinal and decadal differentiation of recent EVT variations cannot be understood without invoking the anthropogenic radiative forcings. In the mid-latitudes, the emerging picture of enhanced EVT confirms the end of the dimming decades8 and highlights the possible threat posed by increasing drought frequency to managing water resources and achieving food security in a changing climate.

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Figure 1: Simulated and reconstructed 1950–2005 time series of land EVT anomalies.
Figure 2: Scaling-factor best estimates (diamonds) and 95% (2.5–97.5%) confidence intervals as computed from the optimal fingerprint analysis applied to ISBA and VIC pseudo-observed data sets.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to all their CNRM-CERFACS colleagues involved in the CMIP5 project. Thanks are also due to the French RTRA CYMENT project (http://www.legos.obs-mip.fr/fr/projets/cyment/) for supporting the global offline hydrological simulation with ISBA and its evaluation with satellite data. Finally, the study is dedicated to J. Noilhan who played a key role in developing the ISBA model and promoting its use for global climate applications.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CNRM-GAME, CNRM/GMGEC/VDR, 42 Avenue G. Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cedex 01, France

    H. Douville, A. Ribes, B. Decharme & R. Alkama

  2. Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, USA

    J. Sheffield

Authors
  1. H. Douville
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  2. A. Ribes
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  3. B. Decharme
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  4. R. Alkama
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  5. J. Sheffield
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Contributions

H.D. designed the research; B.D., R.A. and J.S. produced the global EVT reconstructions; A.R. contributed the D&A tools and the figures, H.D. and A.R. analysed the data and wrote the manuscript.

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Correspondence to H. Douville.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Douville, H., Ribes, A., Decharme, B. et al. Anthropogenic influence on multidecadal changes in reconstructed global evapotranspiration. Nature Clim Change 3, 59–62 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1632

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