Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Commentary
  • Published:

The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C

The latest carbon dioxide emissions continue to track the high end of emission scenarios, making it even less likely global warming will stay below 2 °C. A shift to a 2 °C pathway requires immediate significant and sustained global mitigation, with a probable reliance on net negative emissions in the longer term.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Relevant articles

Open Access articles citing this article.

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Estimated CO2 emissions over the past three decades compared with the IS92, SRES and the RCPs.
Figure 2: Growth rates of historical and scenario CO2 emissions.

References

  1. UNFCCC Establishment of an Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (UNFCCC, 2011).

  2. Moss, R. H. et al. Nature 463, 747–756 (2010).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  3. Van Vuuren, D. et al. Climatic Change 103, 635–642 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Tirpak, D. & Vellinga, P. in Climate Change: The IPCC Response Strategies (eds Bernthal, F. et al.) 9–42 (IPCC, 1990).

    Google Scholar 

  5. Leggett, J. et al. in Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to The IPCC Scientific Assessment (eds Houghton, J. T., Callander, B. A. & Varney, S. K.) 69–98 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1992).

    Google Scholar 

  6. Nakicenovic, N. & Swart, R. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2000).

    Google Scholar 

  7. Van Vuuren, D. P. et al. Climatic Change 109, 5–31 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Richels, R. G., Tol, R. S. J. & Yohe, G. W. Nature 453, 155–155 (2008).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  9. Van Vuuren, D. P. & Riahi, K. Climatic Change 91, 237–248 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Peters, G. P. et al. Nature Clim. Change 2, 2–4 (2012).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  11. Friedlingstein, P. et al. Nature Clim. Change 1, 457–461 (2011).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  12. Schneider, S. H. & Thompson, S. L. J. Geophys. Res. 86, 3135–3147 (1981).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Le Quéré, C . et al. Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essdd-5-1107-2012 (2012).

  14. Rogelj, J., Meinshausen, M. & Knutti, R. Nature Clim. Change 2, 248–253 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Le Quéré, C. et al. Nature Geosci. 2, 831–836 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Raupach, M. R. et al. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 104, 10288–10293 (2007).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  17. GEA Global Energy Assessment — Toward a Sustainable Future (Cambridge Univ. Press & IIASA, 2012).

  18. Van Vliet, J. et al. Climatic Change 113, 551–561 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. UNEP Bridging the Emissions Gap (UNEP, 2011).

  20. Rogelj, J. et al. Nature Clim. Change 1, 413–418 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Jakob, M., Luderer, G., Steckel, J., Tavoni, M. & Monjon, S. Climatic Change 114, 79–99 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Clarke, L. et al. Energy Econ. 31 (Supplement 2), S64–S81 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Peters, G. P., Minx, J. C., Weber, C. L. & Edenhofer, O. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 108, 8903–8908 (2011).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  24. Wilson, C., Grubler, A., Gallagher, K. S. & Nemet, G. F. Nature Clim. Change 2, 780–788 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work is a collaborative effort of the Global Carbon Project, a joint project of the Earth System Science Partnership, to provide regular analyses of the main global carbon sources and sinks (http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/). G.P.P. and R.M.A were supported by the Norwegian Research Council (project 221355/E10). T.B. and the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) are supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research. C.L.Q. thanks the UK Natural Environment Research Council (project NE/103002X/1) and the European Commission (project FP7-283080) for support. J.G.C. and M.R.R. thank the Australian Climate Change Science Program for support.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

All authors contributed to the planning of the paper. G.P.P. led the work. G.M. and T.B. contributed the updated CO2 emission data. R.M.A. prepared the figures and associated analysis. G.P.P. did the 2012 emission estimate and the analysis of the historical reduction rates. All authors contributed to data interpretation and to the writing of the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Glen P. Peters.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Information (PDF 934 kb)

Supplementary Information 2

Supplementary Information 2 (XLSX 28 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Peters, G., Andrew, R., Boden, T. et al. The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C. Nature Clim Change 3, 4–6 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1783

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1783

This article is cited by

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing