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Thermal tolerance and the global redistribution of animals

Nature Climate Change volume 2, pages 686–690 (2012)Cite this article

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Abstract

The redistribution of life on Earth has emerged as one of the most significant biological responses to anthropogenic climate warming1,2,3. Despite being one of the most long-standing puzzles in ecology4, we still have little understanding of how temperature sets geographic range boundaries5. Here we show that marine and terrestrial ectotherms differ in the degree to which they fill their potential latitudinal ranges, as predicted from their thermal tolerance limits. Marine ectotherms more fully occupy the extent of latitudes tolerable within their thermal tolerance limits, and are consequently predicted to expand at their poleward range boundaries and contract at their equatorward boundaries with climate warming. In contrast, terrestrial ectotherms are excluded from the warmest regions of their latitudinal range; thus, the equatorward, or ‘trailing’ range boundaries, may not shift consistently towards the poles with climate warming. Using global observations of climate-induced range shifts, we test this prediction and show that in the ocean, shifts at both range boundaries have been equally responsive, whereas on land, equatorward range boundaries have lagged in response to climate warming. These results indicate that marine species’ ranges conform more closely to their limits of thermal tolerance, and thus range shifts will be more predictable and coherent. However, on land, warmer range boundaries are not at equilibrium with heat tolerance. Understanding the relative contribution of factors other than temperature in controlling equatorward range limits is critical for predicting distribution changes, with implications for population and community viability.

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Figure 1: Environmental temperature, thermal tolerance and potential latitudinal ranges.
Figure 2: Potential and realized latitudinal range boundaries of ectotherms.
Figure 3: Asymmetry in recent geographic range shifts of ectotherms.

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Acknowledgements

We are grateful to R. Colwell, R. Huey, W. Palen, J. Reynolds, G. Quinn, A. Mooers, P. Molloy, M.J.J. Jorda, D. Redding, R. Trebilco, M. Hart, C. Keever and the Earth2Ocean laboratory for constructive criticism. This work was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biological Sciences, Earth to Ocean Research Group, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, British Columbia V5A 1S6, Canada

    Jennifer M. Sunday & Nicholas K. Dulvy

  2. School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Warrnambool 3280, Australia

    Amanda E. Bates

  3. Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart 7001, Australia

    Amanda E. Bates

Authors
  1. Jennifer M. Sunday
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  3. Nicholas K. Dulvy
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study design and formulation of hypotheses. J.M.S. collected latitudinal range and thermal tolerance data and performed the data analyses. A.E.B. reviewed the literature of temperature-driven range shifts and J.M.S. compiled these data for presentation. All authors wrote the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Jennifer M. Sunday.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Sunday, J., Bates, A. & Dulvy, N. Thermal tolerance and the global redistribution of animals. Nature Clim Change 2, 686–690 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1539

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