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Limited forcing of glacier loss through land-cover change on Kilimanjaro

Abstract

Global climate change is primarily linked to changes in greenhouse gases, but land-cover change (LCC) has increasingly been recognized as another forcing on the regional scale1,2. The related effects on alpine glaciers are, however, not yet known. Here we present the first quantification of the contribution of LCC-driven atmospheric change to glacier mass loss, illustrated by the well-studied case of Kilimanjaro in tropical Africa3,4,5. We employ a novel multi-scale modelling approach6, which links atmospheric dynamics and local glacier mass balance in a fully physical way and is validated by in situ measurements. Using different model settings, this shows that local LCC since the 1970s has contributed 7±6% (17±12%) to mass loss of a southern slope glacier in the dry (wet) season, but this effect could reverse in the other mountain sectors and also decrease glacier mass loss. Thus, for the moment, the hypothesis that local LCC is another forcing of glacier loss on Kilimanjaro7,8 cannot be corroborated. More generally, our results indicate that the impact of local LCC on mountain glaciers is constrained by regional circulation (moisture trajectories), altitude (distance to forest), and outside the tropics by precipitation mechanisms (frontal systems). We therefore argue that attribution of glacier change and variability to large-scale climate dynamics3,9,10 is unlikely to be distorted by local LCC.

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Figure 1: The study region.
Figure 2: LCC impact on atmospheric conditions at Kilimanjaro summit.
Figure 3: Changes in mass and energy fluxes on Kersten Glacier due to LCC-forced atmospheric changes (difference to 1976).
Figure 4: Changes in precipitation and 2-m air temperature over Kilimanjaro due to LCC (difference to 1976).

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Acknowledgements

This work was funded by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF: P20089-N10, P22106-N21, P22443-N21), the University of Innsbruck, and the Tyrolean Science Fund. A.H. acknowledges ‘Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft’ (DFG). The supercomputing was supported by the Austrian Ministry of Science BMWF as part of the ‘UniInfrastrukturprogramm’ of the ‘Forschungsplattform’ Scientific Computing at LFU Innsbruck. We thank the Tanzanian authorities for research permission (COSTECH, KINAPA, TANAPA, TAWIRI) and N. J. Cullen, G. Kaser and M. Winkler for leading the field work on Kilimanjaro.

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T.M. designed the research, made the computations, participated in field work on Kilimanjaro, and wrote the paper. All co-authors helped with data preparation (reanalysis, vegetation) and continuously discussed the work.

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Correspondence to Thomas Mölg.

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Mölg, T., Großhauser, M., Hemp, A. et al. Limited forcing of glacier loss through land-cover change on Kilimanjaro. Nature Clim Change 2, 254–258 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1390

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