Environ. Res. Lett. http://doi.org/jb3 (2012)
The Sun has played a key role in driving the Earth's climate throughout history. In recent years, however, there have been opposite trends in solar radiation and global temperature.
An inferential method is used by Antonello Pasini, of the Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research, Rome, Italy, and co-workers to show whether the decoupling is causal and whether it is possible to date when the decoupling began. Granger causality analysis is a statistical test for determining whether one time series can be useful in forecasting another. They tested total solar irradiance, and total radiative forcing by greenhouse gases, against global temperature.
The results show that there has been a causal decoupling between solar irradiance and global temperature which began in the 1960s. In addition, greenhouse gas radiative forcing has shown a strong causal link with temperature since the 1940s. The question remains as to the full causes of this decoupling between solar irradiation and temperature.
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Wake, B. Non-solar warming. Nature Clim Change 2, 709 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1708
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1708
