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Building world narratives for climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability analyses

Nature Climate Change volume 1, pages 151–155 (2011)Cite this article

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Abstract

The impacts of climate change on human systems depend not only on the level of emissions but also on how inherently vulnerable these systems are to the changing climate. The large uncertainties over future development and structure of societies and economies mean that the assessment of climate change effects is complex. One way to deal with this complexity is by using scenario analysis that takes account of these socio-economic differences. The challenge is to identify the dimensions along which societies and economies evolve over time in such a way as to cover sufficiently different vulnerability patterns. This conceptual effort is critical for the development of informative scenarios. Here, we identify three dimensions that take into account the most relevant factors that define the vulnerability of human systems to climate change and their ability to adapt to it.

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Figure 1: Narrative representation of the impacts of climate change, showing the three key dimensions that define the vulnerability of human systems.

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Acknowledgements

We thank P. Dumas, C. Guivarch, B. O'Neill, P. Quirion, P. Roudier, J. Rozenberg and H. Waisman for their comments on a previous version of this paper. We also thank the AUGUR project, funded by the European Union 7th Research Framework, for their financial support.

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  1. Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement, CIRED, ENPC, Campus du Jardin Tropical 45 bis, avenue de la Belle Gabrielle, Nogent-sur-Marne Cedex, 94736, France

    Stephane Hallegatte, Valentin Przyluski & Adrien Vogt-Schilb

  2. Ecole Nationale de la Météorologie, Météo-France, 42 avenue Gaspard Coriolis, Toulouse, 31057, Cedex 1, France

    Stephane Hallegatte

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  1. Stephane Hallegatte
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Correspondence to Stephane Hallegatte.

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Hallegatte, S., Przyluski, V. & Vogt-Schilb, A. Building world narratives for climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability analyses. Nature Clim Change 1, 151–155 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1135

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