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Fire and ENSO

Latest Research

  • Letter |

    Ice loss from Antarctica is sensitive to changes in ice shelves. Finite-element modelling reveals that localized ice-shelf thinning, particularly in locations vulnerable to warm water intrusion, can have far-reaching impacts via tele-buttressing.

    • R. Reese
    • , G. H. Gudmundsson
    • , A. Levermann
    •  & R. Winkelmann
  • Letter |

    The cost of preserving ecosystem storage of carbon varies depending on local land-use and socio-political pressures. A survey of experts suggests a cost-minimizing distribution would be more effective for mitigation than equitable distribution.

    • Markku Larjavaara
    • , Markku Kanninen
    • , Harold Gordillo
    • , Joni Koskinen
    • , Markus Kukkonen
    • , Niina Käyhkö
    • , Anne M. Larson
    •  & Sven Wunder
  • Perspective |

    Climate impact models have a limited ability to represent risks to the poor and vulnerable. Wider adoption of best practices and new model features that incorporate social heterogeneity and different policy mechanisms are needed to address this shortcoming.

    • Narasimha D. Rao
    • , Bas J. van Ruijven
    • , Keywan Riahi
    •  & Valentina Bosetti
  • Perspective |

    Many of the measures required to reduce emissions of short-lived climate pollutants contribute to achieving the sustainable development goals while complementing decarbonization efforts required to reduce long-term climate change.

    • Andy Haines
    • , Markus Amann
    • , Nathan Borgford-Parnell
    • , Sunday Leonard
    • , Johan Kuylenstierna
    •  & Drew Shindell
  • Letter |

    Reductions in precipitation and water storage increased fire emissions in pan-tropical forests by 133% during and following El Niño events (1997–2016). Fires follow a predictable cascade across tropical continents that may improve seasonal fire forecasts.

    • Yang Chen
    • , Douglas C. Morton
    • , Niels Andela
    • , Guido R. van der Werf
    • , Louis Giglio
    •  & James T. Randerson
  • Letter |

    Climate and CO2 trends have driven significant changes in global crop water demand over the last 30 years but with variation by region and crop type. If trends continue, it could be a challenge for adaptation efforts to keep pace with water demand.

    • Daniel W. Urban
    • , Justin Sheffield
    •  & David B. Lobell

News & Comment

  • News and Views |

    The thinning of floating ice shelves around Antarctica enhances upstream ice flow, contributing to sea-level rise. Ice-shelf thinning is now shown to influence glacial movement over much larger distances than previously thought.

    • Olivier Gagliardini
  • Editorial |

    After years of working towards a climate accord, the Paris Agreement of 2015 marked the shift from negotiating to reach consensus on climate action to implementation of such action. The challenge now is to ensure transparency in the processes and identify the details of what is required.

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