Credit: ©istockphoto/Rob Broek

A new index that measures the capacity of a region to adapt to climate change shows that low levels of income and education make rural areas especially vulnerable.

Rasmus Heltberg and Misha Bonch-Osmolovskiy at the World Bank in Washington DC developed an index to better understand factors shaping exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to climate change1. Focusing on Tajikistan — a mountainous country particularly at risk of water fluctuations and natural disasters — the authors found that rural populations are more susceptible to adverse impacts of climate change than their urban counterparts, due primarily to low levels of income and education. The factors that make a population more likely to experience deprivation — such as food insecurity and reliance on agriculture — may not be linked to exposure or location. Overlap exists between vulnerable and economically important areas, thus planners need not face trade-offs when directing adaptation spending, the authors note.

The study concludes that community-based adaptation projects should consider migration from rural, deprived areas, to urban centres as an effective adaptation strategy.