A global estimate of the exposure of port cities to climate extremes shows that those in Asia will fare worst in the future.
The world's most populated port cities will be three times more likely to suffer from an extreme weather event by 2070, a study suggests.
Using an elevation-based GIS analysis, a team of scientists led by Susan Hanson and Robert Nicholls at the University of Southampton, UK, estimated the changing exposure of 136 urban port cities to coastal flooding over the next 60 years1. Rising sea levels and higher storm frequency, together with natural and human-induced subsidence, population growth and urbanization, will increase the exposure of assets by a factor of ten, to roughly 9% of global GDP. Of the top 20 most vulnerable locations, more than 65% are in Asia; developing and emerging economies are the most exposed while also least able to afford the construction of appropriate defenses, the researchers found.
Although the drivers of exposure depend on location, the authors argue that appropriate long-term policies are needed to boost preventive and defence planning now.
References
Hanson, S. et al. A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes. Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-010-9977-4 (2010).
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Franz-Vasdeki, J. Cities to suffer. Nature Clim Change (2011). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1029
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1029
