23
September 2004
Predictors of deforestation
Some past societies collapsed as a result of deforestation, in the Easter Islands for example. Yet others survived. Explaining this contrast is a major challenge, with important policy implications today. Case studies of single societies suggest some explanatory factors, but to address the question quantitatively, Rolett and Diamond assembled a database of 81 sites on 69 Pacific islands. They detect significant decreases in deforestation and/or forest replacement with factors including rainfall, area, elevation and volcanic ash transport. That is, small dry islands are more likely to be deforested than large damp islands. Deforestation increases with latitude, isolation and age. These results have implications for deforestation-related societal collapses around the world, such as those of the Maya in the past, and some familiar situations today.
Environmental predictors of pre-European deforestation
on Pacific islands
BARRY ROLETT & JARED DIAMOND
Nature 431, 443–446 (2004); doi:10.1038/nature02801
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Environmental geography: Treeless at Easter
HENRY GEE
Nature 431, 411 (2004); doi:10.1038/431411a
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