22
January 2004
Climate change: More long hot summers?
Last year's European heatwave was highly unusual, even when taking into account the warming that has been observed in the late twentieth century. But in simulations of future climate, a summer like 2003 does not appear out of the ordinary, according to a paper published in this issue. Schär et al. simulated the future effects of increasing greenhouse-gas emissions on European climate. They find not only mean warming, but also a much higher variability of temperatures, suggesting that extreme summers may become more common. Climate records of the past 150 years show that mean global temperatures have risen, but whether variability has also changed is not clear. According to the new research, summer 2003 was either an extremely unusual event, or it was a first glimpse of climate variability to come.
The role of increasing temperature variability
in European summer heatwaves
CHRISTOPH SCHÄR, PIER LUIGI VIDALE, DANIEL LÜTHI,
CHRISTOPH FREI, CHRISTIAN HÄBERLI, MARK A. LINIGER & CHRISTOF APPENZELLER
Nature 427, 332–336 (2004); doi:10.1038/nature02300
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